PECOTA and ZiPS, two of the most recently made projection systems to hit baseball, are certainly not the only representatives of their kind, but for someone like me, who spends most of his time on the two BPs, Prospectus and Primer, they’re the most visible. With enough of the season gone by that sample sizes are no longer all that small, I’ve decided to dig up the numbers for our Cardinals regulars and see how they’re performing, compared to their projected selves. However, with Primer’s controversial (I’m not a fan, at least, but it certainly looks nice.) redesign I have no idea where the ZiPS numbers are, so for the moment, PECOTA it is. I’ll update if I find them.
Leading off…
Tony Womack got off to a hot-enough start to give him an extra two months as a starter, but since May has returned to THE Tony. Here’s his April: .351/.415/.509. May: .224/.254/.254. PECOTA’s .245/.288/.309 is within “reach” if Tony continues to backslide, but he stands currently at .282/.331/.371. As he’s on pace to steal 39 bases he’ll likely continue to manufacture outs with the best atop the leadoff spot for the forseeable future.
Next up is Ray Lankford. I of course am going to be more optimistic about Ray, my favorite player since 1995, than I am about Tony, but both have slumped a fair amount in May. As Go Cardinals has noted, he’s maintained his ability to get on base but has lost almost all of his power in May, posting a punchless .224/.345/.306 thus far. PECOTA guessed at .226/.338/.378, and I’m inclined to agree that his power will return somewhat.
Albert Pujols has proven a highly valuable major disappointment so far into the year, proving how much value he can lose while still being a good hitter. .281/.378/.563 is what Cards fans have had to settle for so far; who knows how long we’ll last as contenders with a .940 OPS at first. PECOTA, with its penchant for regression to the mean, predicted an even 1000 OPS, .323/.412/.588 after his MVP-like 2003. Since May he’s lost some peripheral glory, falling down to an .840 OPS, but his last week of splits are certainly nice to look at.
Jim Edmonds is another guy who’s always supposed to be at the end of the road, but he’s helped to carry the offense while other players are struggling, and is currently at a .275/.366/.577 clip. PECOTA predicted .277/.382/.530, pretty close, but most frighteningly expected him to last fewer than 400 at bats with its playing time guess. Injury proneness aside, he’s yet to miss a game this year.
Scott Rolen’s finally getting the MVP-buzz year he’s been on the verge of for some time. With Pujols slumping he’s gotten a lot of national attention by going .333/.393/.575 and playing his usual insanely good defense after playing hurt much of 2003. PECOTA presumed he’d lose some value, as a third baseman with nagging injuries would be expected to, and end up at .277/.369/.499. He’s currently performing at a level they gave him a 10% chance of reaching.
When fans of his former teams told me Reggie Sanders was streaky I didn’t give it a whole lot of thought, but I’m certainly aware of it now. After playing extremely well early, to the tune of .321/.352/.702, he’s spent May hitting like a pitcher, and not Woody Wiliams, either; .164/.193/.236, shockingly low for anyone, let alone an outfielder. His season-long numbers have obviously taken a beating as a result. .259/.290/.518 brings to mind Joe Carter or Dave Kingman. PECOTA believes .263/.332/.475 is about right, but he’ll need to take some walks for that to happen.
Edgar Renteria had a pretty obvious peak year in 2003, and PECOTA believed he’d fall to .294/.356/.426, but no one expected him to fall all the way near his 2001 levels to .278/.321/.381. He’s another May slumper, hitting .262 with hardly anything in the way of walks or extra base hits after having a decent April.
Mike Matheny, whipping boy for all due to his light hitting antics, has actually been one of the few Cardinals hitting in this barren May. It’s not just his usual hot April, either, with an .800 OPS in May bringing him up to .288/.333/.440 on the year, well above what PECOTA expected, .236/.304/.329. In fact, PECOTA felt he only had a 10% chance of reaching .277/.352/.403, so the power he displayed is far and away one of the flukiest things the Cardinals have reaped benefits from this year. A Mike Matheny who also happens to be a league average hitter would be very valuable, very valubale indeed.
There’ll always be players that shock the world and perform very well or very poorly over the course of a long season, but it seems like nothing is as we’ve expected so far in 2004. I’ll do the pitchers later, if I can get over my seething hatred of Woody Wiliams for his outing today. 6-1 isn’t insurmountable, though, when we have the hot bat of… Mike Matheny!?
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