We spent much of 2006 making excuses for the Cardinals’ all-star third baseman, in spite of his already-impressive comeback season. Coming off an absolutely miserable 2005, throughout which it was apparent that he could not have pulled a slow-pitch softball, he put up an .887 OPS, and still it seemed like he was just one offseason away from being all the way back.

O, how young and foolish we were.

As it turned out, that 2006 downturn, that September in which he hit .225/.303/.393, was not his shoulder wearing down because of the long season, but his shoulder wearing down because it hadn’t been fixed. I didn’t know that when I made my fearless prediction–that Rolen would have an OPS over .800 after his April swoon–but he did pick it up a bit. A little, at least? All right, all right, I’ll take my incorrect prediction like a man:

 G   AB   H  2B  3B  HR  BB   K   BA   OBP  SLG
99  342  94  23   2   7  35  47  .275 .343 .415

That’s closer to what I subjectively saw Rolen as, this year–a guy who drove the ball like an average third baseman, and seemed extremely frustrated by it. (According to ZiPS, the average third baseman, playing at Busch, would hit .272/.342/.437. Eerie.)

There’s been another surgery, so God only knows which Rolen we’ll see next year, but the main question at this point is whether we’ll see Rolen next year. Now that La Russa’s back for the moderate haul the Grangerfords and the Shepherdsons are back at it again, giving Mozeliak all of three or four days to settle in. Does he keep his cranky, damaged star? Does he do this?:

Rolen, 32, has been plagued by shoulder problems and hit just eight homers in 112 games. He is owed $36 million through 2010, so the Cardinals would ask [The Yankees] for virtually nothing in return.

$12 million a year is nice, but unless Virtually Nothing can play third base the Cardinals would have to spend a chunk of that windfall on Rolen’s replacement. The only third base prospect in the organization is Allen Craig, who has a very intriguing bat–.900 in the Florida State League is pretty tough to do–but seems to have very little shot of sticking at third base; last year he put up one of those fielding percentages bad enough that it warrants mention–.920 anywhere is pretty tough to do, if not quite Ryan Braun territory.

If you’re not ready to cede the position to a guy who’s played seven games in the high minors, and you don’t want to have some combination of David Eckstein, Brendan Ryan, and Aaron Miles out on the field all at once, you’ve got to sign somebody. And that leaves the Cardinals with the remainder of the $12 million, which would entitle them to a three-year commitment with the likes of Carlos Silva, Bartolo Colon, or any other member of the Future Kip Wellses of America. (I’m told the Carlos Silva contract comes complete with an appendix of mediocre prospects for which he will be dumpable next November, which is really a nice touch on his agent’s part.)

There’s something to freeing up payroll, and it would be a great Symbolic Step toward the evolving Cardinals Mozeliak has promised. But this is the absolute worst time to free up this payroll. Not only is this an extreme case of selling low; not only do the Cardinals not have anybody ready to step in at third base; but there isn’t even anybody worth the money! It’s like trading your Christmas gifts, sight unseen, for a huge Bass Pro Shop gift card.