The case for Clay Mortenson, first rounder: Nothing much. He’s supposedly a “projectable” college senior, which is good because he throws “89-92″ (in scout talk that has to be, what, 86-89?) in his early twenties, when a lot of people seem to peak in terms of velocity. You know what a high-80s sinker gets you when you don’t have a great secondary pitch? Brad Thompson. And I love WonderBrad, but he’s the kind of happy surprise you should end up with in the middle of the draft, like the Cardinals did when they got him in 2002.

The draft tracker video–I’d embed it but Major League Baseball does not understand the internet and therefore uses pop-up windows and Windows Media Player for everything–shows good movement on his fastball, and all the fastballs they showed hit 90, but there’s something odd about his delivery. I’m not Carlos Gomez, but it seems like his arm action is inconsistent–every few pitches he looks perfectly fine, but there’s an odd hitch in some of them, where his front foot comes down and then everything just stops for a moment. That’s almost a little heartening; perhaps fixing his mechanics is part of the projectability.

I’m also a little wary of the way he’s “developed” in the last year or so. Are we sure that this is a new talent level, or is he just pitching really well right now? If you’re going to make a pick on a statistical basis, it’s good to have a bigger sample to draw from than one college season.

The case against–wait, I think I already made that.

In conclusion: It’s not that Mortenson is going to be a bad player–he might end up in the back of the rotation, which would be fine. The problem is that the Cardinals drafted three or four of these guys last year. Throwing bodies at a position is a fine thing to do in the bullpen, because the individual bodies are cheap in terms of both cash outlay and opportunity cost. But the fifth spot in the rotation–heretofore ably manned by several converted relief pitchers–is no cause for spending draft picks that could be used on players with the chance to do much bigger things.

Back-of-the-rotation starters shouldn’t be developed intentionally; no pitcher should be drafted, especially in the first round, because he looks like he’ll be a good back-of-the-rotation starter. This is like drafting relievers, only on a much more insidious, subtle level. I don’t have the numbers to back this up, but it seems like most good innings eaters were originally pretty good pitching prospects in their own right; consider Boof Bonser, or Joe Blanton, or the endless retreads who’ve ended up here in the past (Pat Hentgen? Andy Benes?) Sure, some of the less-effective models might be these middle-round “polish” guys, but I’d be just fine with taking somebody else’s when they get pushed out of a good rotation or discarded too soon.

But most importantly–nobody was lining up to get this guy. Even if Jeff Luhnow and the scouts saw something amazing in Clay Mortenson, the consensus seems to be that they could’ve gotten him a few rounds later. If he turns out to be a middle-of-the-rotation type, great, but I’m not going to say I was wrong–it is the principle of the matter. The Cardinals obviously and depressingly traded opportunity for dollars here. As the Giants of Brian Sabean’s avoid-first-rounders phase proved, you can’t afford to make that trade if you’re an older team. Especially when you can, uh, afford to not make it.