High A is where I start to really pay attention to what those who are not very young or very overpowering are doing. A guy like Trey Hearne or Brian Dopirak might be for real after dominating low A, but it seems like most of the pan-flashier non-prospects seem to be caught in the jump between low-A and high-A. (Not all of them… but most.)

As a result, these two months have a little more relevance than they did yesterday. So, to the players.

Trending Up:

Allen Craig - 3B?

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     AGE   LG   G   AB   H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO   AVG  OBP  SLG  K%
2006  22   SS  68  248  64  11   1  11  23  56  .258 .325 .444  23
 APR  23   A+  17   89  34   3   2   6   3  13  .382 .402 .663  15
SINCE 23   A+  32  123  34   8   0   6  10  28  .276 .331 .488  23

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Palm Beach’s P.J. Walters, Craig was not touted at all as an eighth rounder out of last year’s draft, and he did nothing to impress anybody in his short season debut. But he came out of the gate absolutely locked in, and after a mediocre May (he hit .258) he’s hit two home runs in the first week of June.

Unfortunately, he’s a third baseman who’s not likely to stick at third. According to this article, he was moved from short to third because he was too heavy for the middle infield. Even after losing twenty pounds in the offseason, he was left in a spot where there’s really no place for him to go in this organization, which I don’t understand, but as long as he keeps hitting he’ll force the issue somewhere. If he had the speed to play shortstop, at least (he’s stolen five bases in seven attempts this year), he could probably stick in left field, unlike this guy:

Mark Hamilton - 1B

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     AGE   LG   G   AB   H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO   AVG  OBP  SLG  K%
2006  22 SS/A  68  248  64  11   1  11  23  56  .258 .325 .444  23
 APR  23   A+  17   61  16   3   0   2   2  15  .262 .281 .410  25
 MAY       A+  28  108  33   7   0   3  10  21  .306 .361 .454  19
 JUN       A+   4   16   7   0   0   5   2   1  .438 .500 1375   6

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I had to cheat again with the April-and-May conceit here, seeing as Hamilton has doubled his home run total over the last week. But even slugging 1.375 in a month isn’t enough to dissuade me from being wary about the idea of picking a 22-year-old first baseman with a second round pick.

Reason one: there’s this guy at first base for the Cardinals right now. And I realize it’s never good to draft to fill holes, because they usually change by the time the players reach the majors, but Albert Pujols is just four years older than Mark Hamilton.

Reason two: Hamilton has old player’s skills, and he has since he was in college. He’s hit for a good average so far but his main attribute is power, he strikes out a fair amount, and he’s already planted at first base. It’s likely that he will neither age well nor debut in the majors until he’s 25, so what do you have left?

Even considering all that, he looked troublingly Mike Ferris-like in his low-A stint last year, so it’s good to see him hit at all.

Adam Daniels - SP

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     AGE   LG   G     IP    H  BB   K  HR    K/9  BB/9  K:BB   ERA
2006  24    A  24  137.2  139  44 128   3   8.37  2.88  2.91  3.07
 APR  25   A+   5   31.0   35   4  25   0   7.26  1.16  6.25  3.19
 MAY       A+   4   22.2   21   5  17   1   6.75  1.98  3.40  3.18

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Anybody know what it was that Adam Daniels did before he ended up a fifteenth rounder with the Cardinals in 2005? Here’s a blurb from a Swing article from last year:

LHP Adam Daniels: Another hurler with a high upside but a questionable history, Daniels was the only pitcher to begin and end the year as part of the Swing starting rotation. […] A lanky southpaw from North Vancouver, Canada, Daniels was drafted five times before finally signing with St. Louis after the Cardinals made him their 15th-round pick in the 2005 draft.

And here’s the extremely enthusiastic bio on his Baseball Cube page:

Adam Daniels A good Friend and better ball Player!!! Ace On The Way!!!

Growing Up In North Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada his friends always knew if he just asserted himself he could do it. He always had the raw talent he just needed the drive and hes found it!!!

Adam didnt always make the brightest decisions but it seemed that he did on the mound!!! Now that hes grown up and matures into a fine young man I dont think there is one thing that can keep Adam out of Major Leagur Baseball!!!

Whatever the dim decisions were, I assume they have something to do with how late he ended up beginning his professional career. In any case, since a spotty stint in 2005 he’s shown outstanding command and a strikeout rate just south of a batter an inning, and this year he’s cut his already-low walks total in half. (His walk rate is the best in the Florida State League, so far.)

Now 25, I can’t imagine he’ll be much longer for Palm Beach. If he survives the jump to AA he’ll be one of the better sleeper prospects in the system.

Old and busted:

Trey Hearne - SP

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     AGE   LG   G     IP    H  BB   K  HR    K/9  BB/9  K:BB   ERA
2006  23    A  31  128.0  102  34 106  10   7.45  2.39  3.12  2.25
 APR  24   A+   5   28.1   30   5  17   2   5.40  1.59  3.40  4.45
 MAY       A+   6   37.2   53  15  14   4   3.35  3.58  0.93  5.73

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Either they’ve caught up to him or my watch is stopped. The FSL has not been kind to everybody’s favorite sleeper. His strikeout rate has collapsed, and as a result he’s being hit around a lot more. Few people can afford to strike out fewer than five batters per nine innings in the majors, and if you’re doing it in the low minors you’re in big trouble.

Gary Daley - SP

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     AGE   LG   G    IP    H  BB   K  HR    K/9  BB/9  K:BB   ERA
2006  20   SS  15  74.0   76  32  64   0   7.78  3.89  2.00  3.28
 APR  21   A+   5  21.1   17  10  16   1   6.75  4.22  1.60  2.95
 MAY       A+   6  32.2   35  24  22   1   6.06  6.61  0.92  4.96

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Daley was promoted aggressively after doing a great job in short season ball, but so far it hasn’t paid off. His control was shaky in April, but it’s fallen apart completely since; add in his one June outing and his K:BB ratio since then is 23:29.

He’s still keeping the ball in the park, which is why he hasn’t completely collapsed now that he’s walking seven guys a game, but this is a discouraging start for the youngest of the college pitchers selected early in last year’s draft.

Jose Martinez - SS

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     AGE   LG   G   AB   H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO   AVG  OBP  SLG  K%
2006  20    A  91  326  88  20   2   8  18  26  .270 .320 .417   8
 APR  21   A+  21   82  22   3   1   0   4   5  .268 .302 .329   6
 MAY       A+  27   99  26   5   0   1   3  12  .263 .288 .343  12

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Martinez was a sleeper pick here and at Future Redbids, and when he got off to a hot start over the first two weeks or so he got some attention in national articles. And then he stopped hitting completely.

When you consider the kind of pitcher-friendly environment he’s in, this isn’t a collapse so much as a complete stagnation. Best thing in his favor–he’s young, and he’s not as hopeless with the bat as Donovan Solano, even though his BABIP hasn’t picked up like we expected it to yet.