Recently in my mailbox: a press release from TopProspectAlert about their updated Cardinals top ten list. I figure it’s at least something to talk about, with the Cardinals proper having not yet made up their minds about whether they suck or not. Here’s their current list:

#1 Colby Rasmus — Preseason Rank: 1
#2 Jamie Garcia — Preseason Rank: 3
#3 Bryan Anderson — Preseason Rank: 4
#4 Chris Perez — Preseason Rank: 7
#5 Adam Ottavino — Preseason Rank: 8
#6 Blake Hawksworth — Preseason Rank: 5
#7 Jon Jay — Preseason Rank: 6
#8 Tyler Norrick — Preseason Rank: NR
#9 Allen Craig — Preseason Rank: NR
#10 P.J. Walters — Preseason Rank: NR

No arguments with the top two or three, but I would be very tentative about including a guy like P.J. Walters among the top ten. He’s got exactly fifty innings’ worth of track record as a good minor league starter; he’s not that young (22) for low-A; he doesn’t have stuff that excites the scouts. I’m worried we might be overreacting about some of these young starters who are putting up good (but not world-beating) numbers at the bottom of the system, and maybe we should use Trey Hearne as a cautionary tale: guys who put up great numbers at 22 in low-A, and aren’t doing something ridiculous like striking out ten or eleven guys per nine innings, still have a lot of proving themselves to do. So, too, with Allen Craig, who’s put up two months of good hitting and might not even stick at third base.

My other problem is rating Chris Perez that high. I have no problem with Chris Perez, and I think there’s a very good chance he’ll be a great relief pitcher. But great relief pitchers just aren’t as valuable as great players, and the fact remains that most of the best ones started out in the minor league rotation.

A lot of can’t-miss relief prospects do, at least at first–Ryan Wagner and Craig Hansen, most recently–and when they do they lose all their value, because you can’t try something new and move them to the bullpen when they’re already there. I certainly hope Chris Perez becomes the next Huston Street, so that the Cardinals can use the salary they’d pay a free agent Izzy successor on some position players, but in general I’m in favor of drafting pitchers who are at least nominally starters.

That said, my current top ten:

1. Colby Rasmus
Best Cardinals prospect since Albert Pujols, and the best one who didn’t catch everybody off guard since Rick Ankiel. But if I had to compare him to any Cardinals prospect… J.D. Drew with fewer walks and, hopefully, injuries?

2. Jaime Garcia
Whispers of limited upside might be quelled by his start to this season; he’s raised his strikeout rate while continuing to get a ton of groundballs, and it’s apparently come from a peppier fastball. His walk rate’s up, but his baseball age is 20 and he’s in AA, which is enough for me.

3. Blake Hawksworth
His strikeout rate is still unimpressive–downright mediocre–but no legitimate prospect in the PCL has shown better control thus far. He’s got a lot of room to trade control for strikeouts and the pleasure of not getting battered around the strike zone in the bigs, if need be.

4. Bryan Anderson
It’s all dependent on how much power he adds from here on out; at 20 he’s got plenty of time to turn doubles into home runs, but if he doesn’t you have to wonder how much of his walk rate will disappear between AA and the majors. I’m also a little worried about the way catching prospects seem to struggle to develop with the bat, but all in all he’s a great prospect–nearly as exciting as the prospect of the Cardinals finally having a catcher who can hit.

5. Adam Ottavino
He’s looked good so far, but so did Chris Lambert. And anybody who knows my relationship with Chris Lambert knows that that makes me a little leery.

6. Chris Perez
I may not like it, but who else would go here? He’s tearing AA to pieces. Watch out for that high fly ball rate, though, it makes Dave Duncan cry.

7. Rick Ankiel
He’s hardly a prospect by any sense of the word, being neither a rookie nor a Youth, but he’s got relatively high upside, he appears to have a good shot of fulfilling it–is a platoon outfielder any stranger a choice than a relief pitcher?

8. Eddie Degerman
I had to pick one of these guys, as a sort of general nod to the rabble of mid-level pitching prospects in A ball right now. When in doubt, I’ll take the guy who’s been dominating the league. If he manages to reach AA this season, he could move way up this list.

9. Jon Edwards
When my options are picking a low-upside guy with a good half-season at high-A (Allen Craig) or a high-upside guy with a good half-season in Johnson City, I’d take the latter guy every time. Edwards hasn’t made his full season debut yet, and he might not until next year, but he put up an isolated power of nearly .200 as an 18-year old. Nothing wrong with that.

10. Mark McCormick
In the offseason I had him rated higher than Chris Perez–after all, he appears to have better stuff and his command is bad, but so is Perez’s and McCormick is still a starter. He’s yet to begin playing, which bumps him down here, but given the attrition rate of pitching prospects he’s just as likely to end up in the majors as any of the low-upside types who are pitching in A ball right now (Tyler Norrick, Brad Furnish, etc.) are, even if he doesn’t pitch this year.

That pretty well explains my view on prospects: close to the majors is great (Hawksworth), high upside is great (McCormick, Edwards), but I don’t like to see a little of each. It doesn’t matter how close a guy who might be good enough for the big leagues (Narveson, Brendan Ryan) is, if he might not be good enough. On the other hand, if you do both–well, congratulations, Colby Rasmus.

So, that’s enough talking from me. Two months in, who are your top ten?