Wow, what was that? I had a few too many things on my plate at once, and as usual I compensated for that by not accomplishing any of them. That said, consider Get Up, Baby! back in business–and just in time for pitchers and catchers to report. Now, to get back to our tepidly-received regular feature: the not top-twenty.
Today’s bushers–why, yes, I have been reading some Ring Lardner lately–are the Palm Beach Cardinals, who in 2006 continued to be one of the Cardinals’ most successful minor league teams. Usually that kind of continued success means there’s a fair amount of non-prospects on the squad, good enough to contribute without being promoted. In this case… well, not really; Palm Beach had significant time with the Cardinals’ two best prospects, benefited from Blake Hawksworth’s comeback and Terry Evans’s ascendance into tradebait heaven, and got solidly average production from several players I wouldn’t even dare to profile. But there’re two relievers–and one guy who will be a reliever soon, if there’s any justice–who are worth a look.
Mike Sillman - RP - 21st round , 2004
AGE LG G IP H BB K HR K/9 BB/9 K:BB ERA 2005 23 A 56 65.2 39 49 77 3 10.55 6.72 1.57 2.74 2006 24 A+ 57 57.1 34 20 86 2 13.50 3.14 4.30 1.10
If you’re a reliever in the low minors looking to get noticed, you have to either get drafted high, like Chris Perez, or… well, do this. Mike Sillman is a sidearming righty with a fastball that hits 89 on a good day, and he had a pretty decent year with the Quad Cities in 2005. But he didn’t profile well to go further. High strikeout rate, no control–since he could probably beat his fastball to the catcher’s mitt if he had already stretched, he wasn’t a guy to count on for continued success.
Of course, we’re still talking about him, so he fixed something. He ramped his strikeout rate up from really good to Gagne-esque, and he cut his walks in half. And he got better as the season went on; in August, the last month of the FSL season, he allowed five hits and struck out twenty batters. These are videogame numbers. His splits are even more ridiculous. He held righties to a combined line of .148/.248/.180. They slugged .180! And he struck out 14.8 of them per nine innings!
When all is said and done, he’s still a minor league reliever, but righties still struggle against sidearmers with iffy stuff at the major league level. Chad Bradford, patron saint of the species, can’t really compare; he was already in AAA at 24, where he was putting up good ERAs but mediocre peripheral stats. Jeff Nelson also reached AAA at 24; prior to that he was the Worst Starter Ever at a number of minor league stops. What I’m trying to say is that there’s really nobody to compare him to. Most sidearmers and shady relief pseudo-prospects don’t have a season anything at all like this. We won’t know anything until he hits AA next year, but I predict good things.
Dennis Dove - RP - 3rd round, 2003
AGE LG G IP H BB K HR K/9 BB/9 K:BB ERA 2005 24 A 18 102 93 30 72 6 6.35 2.65 2.40 3.88 2005 24 A+ 8 42.2 48 15 23 1 4.85 3.16 1.53 4.85 2006 25 A+ 41 51.1 38 13 56 3 9.82 2.28 4.31 2.81 2006 25 AA 13 14.1 18 8 15 6 9.42 5.02 1.88 8.79
Unlike Sillman, Dove broke into relief work the proper way–by initially failing as a starter. Always touted as a great arm, he posted numbers more befitting an undrafted finesse type until he was converted to relief to begin the 2006 season. He proceeded to show unerring control of a fastball that at times approached triple digits, and was consistently in the mid-90s. Pay no more attention to the beatdown he took in AA than you would the nine great innings he pitched in the Arizona Fall League after the season.
That said, I’m less high on him than I am Sillman, because his great fastball is his only pitch. And even as a reliever, a great fastball isn’t enough. You have to have a transcendent, Rivera/Wagner/Zumaya fastball to rely exclusively on it. I worry that he’s going to run into the same trap ex-top-prospect Jimmy Journell did: his high-90s fastball will produce some ridiculous-looking strikeouts and some equally ridiculous upper-deck home runs in the majors.
Nick Webber - SP? - 2nd round, 2005
AGE LG G IP H BB K HR K/9 BB/9 K:BB ERA 2005 21 SS 10 53.0 35 15 43 2 7.30 2.55 2.86 1.87 2005 21 A 5 29.0 28 9 11 1 3.41 2.79 1.22 3.41 2006 22 A+ 27 134.2 153 63 65 7 4.34 4.21 1.03 4.21
I realize this has been a pretty conservative list so far, so consider this my one Fearless Prediction: Nick Webber is 2007’s Dennis Dove, only better. Ever since he moved to full season ball, after a dominant short season debut, Webber’s peripherals have been downright unpleasant. Not only is he not striking anybody out, but his K:BB ratio is approaching critically nasty mass.
That’s because Nick Webber is a relief pitcher. He did it in college, and he’s going to do it if he reaches the pros. He’s got a mid-90s fastball with incredible sink on it–even when he wasn’t striking anybody out he kept the ball in the park, and his groundball/flyball ratio has been high throughout his career. But that’s his only pitch. As Jason Marquis so adeptly proved, it’s really, really hard to be a starting pitcher when every batter knows what’s coming, even if what’s coming is a pitch that’s really hard to make solid contact against. Add a few miles an hour, forget about the alleged breaking balls, and just rear back and throw it.
If you want another reliever to watch next year–if you somehow can’t get enough of the species least likely to transfer minor league success to the bigs–keep an eye on Jason Motte. I could put him on the Palm Beach list, but it would be cheating; Motte went 4-30 with eleven strikeouts as a catcher early in the year, before disappearing in early May. He was exceedingly well-regarded, defensively, but no amount of glove can carry that batting line.
As it turns out, he was in extended Spring Training, and he made short-season State College as its closer. He’s got a fastball that touches 95 and the beginnings of a hard slider; between short-season A and the Quad Cities, he struck out thirty-eight and walked seven (in thirty-nine innings) in the first experience of his life as a pitcher. He’s a long way away, but that’s a solid start.
