And here we get to the true meaning of not top-twenty. The players you see before you are not, strictly speaking, prospects. They’re prospects to be prospects, and maybe one of them will break out and hit the top twenty of a middle-of-the-road Cardinals system. But they’re still interesting, as far as late January goes, and worth discussing.

So, if you’re interested in Preston Wilson, scroll down. But if you want to read about two guys who, collectively, charitably have a 50/50 shot at doing anything notable, this is the entry for you.

Jose Martinez - 2B/SS

     AGE  LG   G   AB   H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO   AVG  OBP  SLG  K%
2005  19   R  55  150  45   8   2   6  20  15  .300 .387 .500  10
2006  20   A  91  326  88  20   2   8  18  26  .270 .320 .417   8

Future Redbirds recently hit most of my talking points, because Erik is a startlingly comprehensive minors blogger, but Martinez remains my favorite sleeper prospect. After a big debut in rookie ball he hit the periphery of the prospect lists, but a late start and mediocre numbers in his first full season stop dropped him right back off. He might be starting over, but there’s still a lot to like.

First off, how about that contact rate? My omnipresent and irrational worry, when there’s an untouted player who makes incredible contact coming through the system, is that he’s another Yadier Molina. I got a bad case of the Yadis when I checked Martinez’s final numbers, in fact, but a check of the statistical record allayed my concerns. Molina hit .280/.331/.384 in his age-20 season, and he hit for even less power the next year. Martinez seems considerably more inclined to harder contact, and with his speed–which is average but not Molina-esque–he’s able to make use of the hard grounders Yadi can’t.

The walk rate is a concern, but a lot of Martinez’s decline is in his batting average on balls in play; now, it certainly isn’t as rigid a rule as it is when discussing pitchers, but it’s relatively safe to say that Martinez’s .273 BABIP smells like an aberration, since that number mostly hovers around .300. Give him a .300 BABIP, like he had in 2005, and year-to-year he looks like this:

     AGE  LG   G   AB   H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO   AVG  OBP  SLG  K%
2005  19   R  55  150  45   8   2   6  20  15  .300 .387 .500  10
2006  20   A  91  326  96  22   2   8  18  26  .294 .331 .448   8

Much more palatable, right? It’s only eight hits, but it makes a big difference. Of course, it also sets his collapse in plate discipline into greater relief. My guess, uneducated as it is: part of it can be attributed to the jump in league quality, but at the same time this is a guy who was (subconsciously) frustrated by a mediocre BABIP and some nagging injuries throughout the year. Given his ability to make contact almost at will, he probably forced the issue.

He won’t be pushed as hard as Molina was–I’d be surprised if he didn’t start the year back at the Quad Cities–but if his power returns he’ll be back on the radar in a hurry.

Randy Roth - 3B/1B - 10th round, 2005

     AGE  LG   G   AB    H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO   AVG  OBP  SLG  K%
2005  23   R  35  119   39  13   1   7   6  24  .328 .368 .630  20
2005  23  SS  32  119   29   6   1   3   6  21  .244 .283 .387  18
2006  24   A  97  385  118  24   2  18  20  49  .306 .353 .519  13
2006  24  A+  30  105   31  10   0   2   8  12  .295 .368 .448  11

Isaias Garcia, profiled in the Johnson City entry, hopes to someday become Randy Roth, the elderly rookie leaguer who has continued to slug the ball, in search of a league where the rest of his team remembers when Paula Abdul was a sex symbol and the Simpsons was consistently brilliant. Roth is a defensive suspect, with a great arm but stone hands and mediocre range. He’s also got a truly bizarre swing–he starts off like Albert Pujols, crouched down, ready to strike, but then sort of whirls the bat around and flicks his wrists at the ball. It looks cobbled together from several attractive swings, like an English accent learned alternately from Howard Cosell and Audrey Hepburn.

In spite of the stats, he’s not enjoyed a warm reception from the prospect mavens. Midseason, Baseball America gave him their most scathing rejection: “He’s not a prospect.” Having continued to hit, though, they picked him as the Cardinals’ sleeper. With Rico Washington gone and Travis Hanson in sink-or-swim mode, Roth has a golden opportunity to stick at third base in AA. If he makes it to AAA and continues to hover around an .850 OPS, he’ll be in the Cardinals picture for September. The most important thing is going to be whether he sticks at third base in time for his final minor league stop; even if he sucks there, he’ll seem more versatile.