Projections! I can just feel Spring Training getting closer. Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS are finally out. There’s good news, and then there’s the lineup; let’s do the good news first. Here’s what the erstwhile Transaction Oracle projects from the projected rotation:

              ERA   K/9  BB/9  HR/9  K:BB
Carpenter    3.06  7.32  1.81  0.90  4.05
Reyes        3.86  7.60  2.28  1.40  3.33
Wainwright*  3.86  7.43  2.30  1.05  3.23
Wells        4.98  6.77  4.98  1.12  1.36
              ERA   K/9  BB/9  HR/9  K:BB
Hawksworth   4.81  5.01  3.68  1.02  1.36
Narveson     5.45  5.90  4.54  1.51  1.30
Keisler(?)   5.25  4.88  3.83  1.20  1.27

As Ogden Nash might opine, Carp Wain and Reyes and pray for delay-es. (Carp Reyes and Wainer, get Weaves on retainer?) That said, Kip Wells is a Dave Duncan Makeover prospect, so if he comes anywhere near walking five men per nine innings he’s going to be found in a back alley with Chris’s prints on the murder weapon. The high strikeout rate is a good sign, though; after years of Suppan and Marquis in the back (and then the front) of the rotation, it’s quite a change of pace to have four guys with above-average strikeout marks. (Wainwright’s numbers–except the ERA–are as a reliever, so expect those to change.)

How about that front three, though? This rotation’s not as good as the 2005 model, but it’s yet another instance in which the Cardinals’ bare farm system has produced impact players it had no right to expect.

Blake Hawksworth’s projection is nice, but I don’t expect he’ll be anywhere near any of those numbers except the ERA. His strikeout numbers are depressed by his stint in Palm Beach. He was successful, but his velocity was down and he wasn’t striking anybody out. When he moved up to AA he resembled the pitcher he was when he was last healthy, which included an increase in both strikeouts and home runs allowed. Narveson looks replacement level, which was about what was expected. Randy Keisler’s a pitcher lboros has nominated as this year’s Dennis Tankersley. His signing had thusfar eluded me, but Get Up, Baby! being the bastion of baseball research and knowledge that it is he’s been mentioned–even analyzed–before.

… as resembling Steve Buscemi. But a mention’s a mention, and… I mean, look at the guy:

Hopefully he keeps his pitching arm out of the wood-chipper. Okay: so the pitchers are surprisingly decent. But what about the hitters? Well, I’ll do the good news first again. Jim Edmonds is projected for an OPS of .888, just a little off from his 2005 numbers. And, hey–John Rodriguez is projected for an .809 OPS! That’s kind of nice. Great for a backup outfielder, a complimentary player.

Now the bad news: he’s projected to be the fourth best hitter on the team. From there you get Chris Duncan, AAA first baseman Tagg Bozied, and Eli Marrero. Ouch. Adam Kennedy is projected for a .698 OPS, and ZiPS is incredibly down on Juan Encarnacion, who’s projected to have a .405 slugging percentage. And Yadi… Yadi.

.232/.279/.338. No starting player should ever be projected to have a .617 OPS. I don’t care that he looked great in the NLCS, or if he’s the best defensive catcher to ever live, that is just inexcusably bad. This had better be the last year, unless he makes a significant improvement–the Cardinals just can’t afford to keep deluding themselves about his worth. A decent-hitting catcher may have an iron glove, but better that than a cardboard cutout of a hitter.