Cardinals acquire young SP Adam Wainwright from bullpen, terms undisclosed.

I like this deal. Wainwright was a very good relief pitcher, but then, so were Josh Kinney and Tyler Johnson, who were both plucked from the ether; compare them to starters picked up from the proverbial replacement level, like Travis Smith or Jason Simontacchi.

Isringhausen probably won’t be as good as he was in 2002-2005, which was very near the top tier; considering his hip was rumored to be a career-ender this time a few months ago, that would just be too much to ask. But if he can be even acceptable as a closer–I’m talking Dave Veres-class–he becomes infinitely more valuauble to the Cardinals, because he keeps Wainwright in the rotation.

Erik had an excellent post at VEB in which he explains why he thinks Wainwright will be more valuable as a starter, and I definitely agree with him. I think a lot of people have Danny Graves in their head when they think of Wainwright, who they watched dominate in relief all year, slotting into the rotation. But they shouldn’t; here’s Graves’s line as a relief pitcher, up to his failed year in the rotation and subsequent fall from grace, made to look like Wainwright’s year:

            IP  HR  BB  SO   ERA    K/9   K:BB
Wainwright  75   6  22  72   3.12   8.6   3.27
Graves      75   6  28  44   3.42   5.3   1.59

Looking at his stats, I was stunned that Graves lasted as long as he did; his nice ERA was entirely dependent on a low home run rate, which is probably the hardest thing of all to stretch out over 200 innings; it’s easy to concentrate on every pitch you make when you’re in the bullpen, but by throwing 100 of your stuff-free offerings a game you’re going to run into trouble. Wainwright, on the other hand, has excellent peripherals.

And if you’re bothered by the tack Al Hrabosky took the last half of the season, about that big curveball not fooling batters twice a game… well, consider the last pitcher the Cardinals chose not to convert to relief full time. Matt Morris had a better top two pitches, certainly, prior to his stuff hemmorhaging in 2003 and 2004, but would he have ever considered throwing a slider as his strikeout pitch in the playoffs, as Wainwright did? I’d say that Wainwright’s repertoire lends itself to starting better than Matty Mo’s did, and he turned out just fine.

So here we go: a big acquisition, and the Winter Meetings are just getting started. I’m excited.