Five innings, two runs, four strikeouts, three walks. How, you ask, do I make such predictions? Science.
July 30, 2008
July 26, 2008
It’s fitting: on a day in which Dan Haren leads the National League in ERA, the Cardinals have traded Anthony Reyes. The haul is a minor league righty reliever, old for his levels, who will have to get in line behind Mark Worrell, Jason Motte, and, if La Russa gets his way, Kelvin Jimenez, but it’s really irrelevant: the story here is that the Cardinals have, for two years, suppressed Reyes’s value as far as they possibly could, and this is the long-awaited end result. Underwhelming, to say the least, and a disappointing move from a guy who’s supposed to understand that minor league relievers aren’t hard to find.
July 8, 2008
Seriously? Sean Gallagher (B- starter prospect), Eric Patterson (aging second base prospect), Matt Murton (the next Larry Bigbie), and Josh Donaldson (cratering catcher prospect) does not seem like a big haul for Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin. As a Cardinals fan I’m not one to doubt Billy Beane’s magical powers, but this trade seems less Mark Mulder and more Tim Hudson at first glance. Even if it works out it’s not a Mulder deal–this is more like the Richie Sexson trade of some years ago, where the Brewers picked up a bunch of complementary players to fill out their roster. Read: this makes the Cubs better now, and probably not worse later. Which is great for us.
Also as a Cardinals fan: now we see just how devoted to the Young Folk Mozeliak and company are, and in general I would say the more devoted the better. If A.J. Burnett is available and the Jays would take Bryan Anderson and one or two of the C-C+ prospects from the starting pitcher grab bag I would be just fine with that, but I certainly hope the Cardinals keep Rasmus, Garcia, and Todd close to the chest. Aside from that–there’s certainly a need for a lefty reliever in particular and a non-flammable reliever in general, but trades for lefty specialists are always worrisome things. As good as Damaso Marte is–and he’s as sure a thing as you can get in the non-closer set–you have to wonder what the Pirates are going to look for in return.
July 3, 2008
Another major statistical evaluation tool is now open to the public, thanks to Dan Szymborski’s release of the MLE spreadsheets that, presumably, are a part of his internet-famous ZiPS projections. In the grand blog tradition I, a less-talented hanger-on, am going to celebrate said release by using it as a chance for a free blog entry.
The first player I went for–Rasmus’s numbers, massive June aside, are still too depressing to get into–was everyone’s favorite trade fodder, Bryan Anderson. As a 21-year-old in AAA for the first time he seems to be the most perfect MLE candidate in the Cardinals system; the ever-present worry that some 28-year-old repeating AA for the ninth time will game the system is non-existent, and as confident as I am in the Transaction Oracle’s abilities these things are much easier to believe as you get closer to the big leagues. Putting together Anderson’s AA and AAA lines for this year gets you this:
G AB R H 2B 3B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS
MINORS 57 208 30 74 14 2 3 19 31 .356 .410 .486 896
MAJORS 57 208 27 66 10 1 1 13 20 .317 .357 .400 757
About twice as much power would be wonderful, but even with the air let completely out of his big AA line (.388/.417/.525 becomes .312/.337/.387) he seems to have set aside any doubts centered around getting the bat knocked out of his hands at higher levels. The problem is that it also proves he is at just about his least valuable with the 2008 St. Louis Cardinals. That line just isn’t enough of an improvement on Yadier Molina 2008 (or even 2007) for me to believe that Anderson isn’t the second Cardinals catching prospect in a row to be on the trading block during his breakout year. Let’s hope that any Anderson trade would go better than the one that brought over our current lefty specialist.
The unfortunate thing is that the Cardinals don’t really have a lot of advanced hitters with which to prognosticate. David Freese’s OBP is hovering around .320–I’m trying to keep quiet about Jim Edmonds, honest, I am–and Nick Stavinoha’s busy worrying about Chris Duncan’s playing time. That’s a problem at third base, or left field, but when it comes to the Cardinals’ current middle infield situation “advanced hitting” constitutes knowing, in advance, that the person standing in front of you is about to throw the baseball you should be swinging at. Into that void fly 2004 Draft Saviour Jarrett Hoffpauir and the man for whom azru lit the John Gall Fandom Alarm, Brian Barden.
Hoffpauir is the real prospect, for what that’s worth–two years on earth and one trip on waivers is all it takes to turn someone into a AAA journeyman, apparently. After scuffling for a while in the low minors he tattooed AA and AAA to the tune of an .880 OPS, although there was some concern that it was partly the result of repeating AA. That concern seemed justified after Hoffpauir–I’d love to call him Hoff, but as nicknames go that one’s pretty much beyond repair–struggled in his first two months at Memphis this year, but his big June has rehabilitated both his numbers and the extremely plausible idea that he is, presently, the Cardinals’ best second baseman.
G AB R H 2B 3B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS
MINORS 75 260 30 78 20 1 2 32 32 .300 .375 .408 783
MAJORS 75 260 27 75 18 1 2 24 33 .288 .349 .388 737
That major league line looks familiar–computer, show me… the last time Adam Kennedy didn’t suck!
G AB R H 2B 3B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS
HOFFPAUIR 75 260 27 75 18 1 2 24 33 .288 .349 .388 737
KENNEDY 139 451 50 123 26 6 4 39 72 .273 .334 .384 718
Hoffpauir is what he is–Miles with secondary skills? Eckstein with less Scrap and Hustle?–but, more importantly, he is what he is now. He seems of a pair with fellow maybe-prospect Brendan Ryan, and like Ryan we won’t be able to tell if he belongs or not until he’s in the bigs, belonging or not belonging.
The other potential Middle Infielder of the Present is this year’s winner of the prestigious Scott Seabol grant, Brian Barden. A waiver pick-up and subsequently unimpressive coffee-drinker last year, he’s raked in Memphis this year. Is he a real middle infielder? Like Seabol and Edgar Gonzalez before him, the importance of that point becomes blurrier when you see the way he’s hitting.
G AB R H 2B 3B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG
MINORS 79 312 49 95 17 4 8 34 53 .304 .376 .462
MAJORS 79 312 43 90 15 2 6 25 54 .288 .343 .407
Barden, in customary John Gall-Star fashion, has been labelled a AAAA player, and given his awful 2007 and his tweener status in the middle infield it’s not a completely unfair appellation. His hitting isn’t a sure enough thing for his current spot in AAA to be a complete tragedy, but he strikes me as a more defensively useful version of Brendan Harris, able to put up a borderline-average OPS while giving some of it back on defense. That’s the kind of player, able to pinch-hit and spend a few innings at a random spot on the diamond, that I’ve always thought La Russa should love, given his love for a good mix-and-match, but historically he’s preferred trading the Barden/Seabol middle infield cred for the next step up in hitting prowess–the Spiezio/Mabry/Paquette class. To each his own.
As far as players with a less direct path to the majors: provided, with minimal commentary, for those still of the let-Dunc-figure-it-out-in-Memphis persuasion:
DAVID FREESE
G AB R H 2B 3B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG MINIMAL COMMENTARY
MINORS 76 261 42 70 12 2 12 22 68 .268 .323 .467 NOT
MAJORS 76 261 37 67 11 1 9 16 70 .257 .300 .410 READY
NICK STAVINOHA
G AB R H 2B 3B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG MINIMAL COMMENTARY
MINORS 73 268 41 94 15 0 10 11 31 .351 .378 .519
MAJORS 73 268 36 87 13 0 7 8 32 .325 .344 .451 READIER
For now, though, I think I’m comfortably on the Chris Duncan bandwagon. It’s amazing what a well-struck home run does for jogging the part of my brain where I store Son of Dunc’s career OPS.
