Apologies for the longer-than-usual postseason layoff; the World! Series! Victory! coincided with a nonzero amount of homework and kept me away from the site just long enough to squander all of my playoffs momentum, AL style. That said, I’m back in the saddle? now, so expect the usual offseason meanderings on a regular basis.
One of the common themes has already begun to spring up: the Cardinals can’t be complacent in the offseason. Nate Silver’s SI.com piece is a pretty ordinary example of the kind of thing we’ll be reading until pitchers and catchers report. It’s sound advice, and teams are usually loath to follow it. The last several World Series teams, for example:
The 2002 Anaheim Angels went 99-63 and did the whole shock-the-world! thing despite not having any typically great players. Their best hitter, an aging Tim Salmon, hit .286/.380/.503; their best pitcher, Jarrod Washburn, rode a fluky home run rate to an ace-like season despite a decided lack of ace-like stuff.
So they came into 2003 with, startlingly, the exact same lineup and rotation; only postseason hero Francisco Rodriguez pushed his way into the bullpen full-time. This reliance on the same team, filled with players having fluke seasons as it was, left them with a 77-win club. They lost almost 120 runs on offense, due to predictable regressions from Salmon, Scott Spiezio, and David Eckstein, among others; Ramon Ortiz and Jarrod Washburn fell back to their established levels despite their youth, and Kevin Appier and Aaron Sele aged all at once. Without an ace, there was nobody in the rotation to fall back on when those four stopped pitching over their head.
The 2003 Marlins are, obviously, a peculiar case; I think we all understand their build-n-burn strategy at this point. As successful as it’s been, I don’t think I could stand watching it on a regular basis.
In 2004–I’m told they played a World Series that year, though I don’t seem to remember it–the Red Sox had the biggest incentive of all to stand pat: they had reversed the curse! These were the most loved Red Sox, well, ever. It was a given that they would succumb at least once to what Silver in his article calls the “hometown surcharge”; the problem is that they did so in the wrong places. They let Pedro Martinez, maybe the best pitcher of his generation, go to the Mets for four years, $53 million. It’s defensible to avoid an injury-prone pitcher who asks for that much, but it’s not defensible to turn around and spend four years, $40 million on Jason Varitek, a 33-year-old catcher. They also stood pat with the solid-but-unspectacular Kevin Millar, and were left holding the tab when he became more unspectacular and less solid in 2005. That said, they did do what I hope the Cardinals are sure to attempt: they upgraded at at least one position, signing Edgar Renteria.
The Cardinals should have a pretty easy time upgrading at certain positions in 2007; the last two spots in the rotation, for example, would have a hard time producing 350 innings of 6+ ERA if they were trying, and Yadier Molina is a better hitter than the one who couldn’t break a .600 OPS this year. But it would be very good to see the Cardinals make a point of legitimately upgrading at one position that they were okay at. My ideal 2007 Cardinals team would look something like this, right now:
1. David Eckstein, SS: The Cardinals are very lucky that he didn’t become a free agent after this season, because he fits the Platonic Ideal of the player that’s overvalued after the playoffs: scrappy white guy in his 30s who plays hard and had some big hits in the World Series. Poor Eck was a year and a Scott Boras offseason away from three years, $25 million.
2. Ray Durham, 2B: He’s an old, injury prone middle infielder, so normally I would beg the Cardinals to avoid signing him, but the difference is he’s much, much better than the average old, injury prone middle infielder. (Mark Grudzielanek 2004.) Durham is exactly the kind of player that tends to age well: he’s got plate discipline, he hits for a solid batting average, and he started off lightning fast and developed power as he aged. Kenny Lofton, Marquis Grissom, and Reggie Sanders, among others, have parlayed those skills into never-ending periods of usefulness.
3. Albert Pujols, 1B
4. Scott Rolen, 3B
5. Jim Edmonds, CF: pick up the option. Consider: $7 million in this baseball economy gets you the next step up from Juan Encarnacion, and that’s only if you dangle multiple years in front of him. Edmonds’s lost season, concussions and all, still left him with an .821 OPS and, according to Zone Rating, excellent defense in center field.
6. Carlos Lee/Chris Duncan platoon, LF: Here’s the question: how big a splash do the Cardinals want to make? I’d be fine with them avoiding Lee like the plague, since he’s overvalued–five years, $75 million seems to be the order of the day. But Chris Duncan/Nick Stavinoha, or whatever the Cardinals go with in left, is a risky proposition, and after a year of grousing about the ownership’s pursestrings they could be looking to impress the fans with a big deal. I certainly wouldn’t cry myself to sleep if DeWitt pushed Jocketty to sign somebody in the Lee mold.
7. Juan Encarnacion, RF: Zone rating also liked Juan’s defense; I’m sure that is going to make a lot of people discount it entirely, but I thought he played pretty well out there. He plays defense like Jim Edmonds hits: every once and a while he’ll do something that looks totally asinine, but he does a lot of things well that don’t get noticed. The total Juan package is completely average and intensely frustrating, but there are worse players to have.
8. Yadier Molina, C: Mike Lieberthal is a free agent; I’m not sure how he feels about being a backup, but how cool would it be to have a second catcher that actually gives the Cardinals a different look for once?
1: Chris Carpenter
2: Anthony Reyes
3: Adam Wainwright: Yeah, yeah. I just think it’s easier to move him back into the bullpen if he struggles in 2007 than to move him into the rotation if the Cardinals need him in, say, 2009.
4: Jeff Weaver/Suppan: I think Weaver’s going to be cheaper, so I’d probably go with him; with two youngsters in the rotation the Cardinals need a guy who can chew up innings. Here’s hoping that whichever pitcher the Cardinals don’t sign takes a big, overpriced contract from New York or Boston and wins 20 games with a 4.25 ERA.
5: Mark Mulder?: It’s like the Sidney Ponson gamble, only with upside! I like Swamp Gas, divorced from the god-awful trade that brought him here, and I like gambling on injured pitchers with good stuff. If he doesn’t work out, or if he’s not available immediately, the Cardinals can give a few starts to Brad Thompson or Chris Narveson and see what happens; it’s good that their farm system has finally afforded them that luxury.
That’s not a great rotation, but just by default it’s worlds better than what existed this year. This isn’t an ideal offseason for the Cardinals to come into money, but you don’t get the luxury of picking your free agent class; let’s hope Jock makes do with what’s out there.

