I get the feeling that this offseason has been tough for the most accessible of the Post-Dispatch columnists; Jocketty’s been about as forthcoming with information as the North Korean government, and what’s a St. Louis sports columnist going to do with stories of Kim Jong Il making mountains crumble by staring at them? About twenty minutes ago on his forum he managed this cryptic remark:

Post subject: Checking out STL/Burnett rumors…
They’re flying…nothing confirmed yet.
I’ll keep checking.
–B

Okaaay then. Perhaps the Abreu stuff was smokescreen after all. In any case, I hope somebody’s been recycling their bottles and cans; Burnett’s not going to come cheap. Mortgage new Busch!

And then, just as I was about to press submit and call it a day:

Post subject: Burnett to Cardinals: Not true
I reached a high-ranking Cardinals official about the rumor of the day…
Have the Cardinals signed A.J. Burnett?
No. Absolutely not. That was the answer.
But they are keeping the dialogue open with his agent.
–B

Well, then. Now, as J.P. Ricciardi proved by “not signing” B.J. Ryan, denial is often the best confirmation. Not that I hope the Cardinals are following their lead on, say, terms of the contract. In any case, I have a feeling that at this point Bernie Mik has a guy who knows a guy who installs spy cameras on the phone.

“Don’t know the manners of good society, eh? Well, I guess I know enough to turn you inside out, old gal—you sockdologizing old man-trap!”
Yes, it’s the end of the Annihilation Proclamation era in St. Louis; but far be it from being struck down during the funniest line in the play, Abraham O. Nuñez leaps off this particular coil $3.35 million richer. O Captain! My Captain!

Two years, $1.7M per. Who would have thought that he would be making… well, anything more than meal money, really, back last January when he joined the team on a minor league contract? At the time I was more interested in Chris Gissell (who had a good season in AAA) and Bob File (who… disappeared off the map.) But I refuse to be blamed for that–the man was coming off of a .593 OPS, which is Einar-esque.

And now… two years, $1.7M per. It just goes to show that, for all the harping and lip-service managers and GMs give to consistency, they don’t want it. At least, they aren’t really looking for it. For two months this past summer, Abraham Nuñez was a rich man’s version of Ichiro!, hitting .364 with walks and power. For the rest of the year, he was Abraham Nuñez, no-hit, 25th man defensive infielder. The Phillies are paying for two months that he hasn’t had before, and will never have again. Undoubtedly in the name of consistency.

So, congrats on defrauding another team, Abe. Really, I’m happy for him; as long as he isn’t costing the Cardinals money, I hope he makes all the money he can. It was a good two months.

Q) Would I be willing to part with Marquis, Reyes, and change for Bobby Abreu?
A) .303/.411/.512.

Q) Would I inevitably complain about losing another top prospect?
A) SEE: Daric Barton

Q) Should I–a new I, now, the avatar of all of the sites’ viewers–comment on the post preceding this one?
A) Yes.

Back when our NL Central pals inked Scott Eyre to a three year, eleven million dollar deal, I chalked it up as a kind of madness localized in a certain segment of Chicago; of course it was related to the Philadelphia Aging Reliever Virus, and sure, there were some wild-eyed scientists claiming it had a direct link to the Great Isringhausen Scare of 2001, but we didn’t know then what we do now. Like AIDS and the typhoid fever, only now have we realized that the Scott Eyre signing was evidence of a much more sinister problem, lurking beneath the surface. He was Patient Zero of the 2005 Above Average Plague, and like all such Wobegon-derived maladies it’s not funny–not funny at all.

And as the Esteban Loaiza deal proves–three years, twenty-one million bucks–the epidemic is going to get worse before it gets better. Esteban Loaiza had an outstanding year in 2003, and a good year in 2005. He is going on thirty-four, and his career ERA is just barely below average. Last year he played in a ballpark that is rumored to have applied for statehood sometime in the nineteenth century. He is a fine pitcher for the back of rotations everywhere, but he is presently making nearly as much money per year as Jeff Suppan has from 2004-2006. Suppan, who is three years younger, posted a 120 ERA+ last year.

These things spread, as is now becoming abundantly clear; one spread several years ago, in the age of giving stars like Manny Ramirez and A-Rod contracts that could only be doled out in huge, weekly chunks of molten platinum. What we are witnessing now is the new plague–one in which above-average, inconsistent pitchers like Loaiza, A.J. Burnett, and Matt Morris get paid closer money, and ace closers like Billy Wags and B.J. Ryan get paid Oprah money. These contracts are going to look bad now, but just wait until one of Wagner, Ryan, or Burnett is millstoning his team as they try to sign a player during the next outbreak. Middle relievers who throw the screwball, for all I know.

Not often you see a guy retire for financial reasons, but according to the Post-Dispatch Cal Eldred has decided to call it… er, another career. It’s not a huge surprise; at this point his arm is about as stable as Yakov Smirnov’s career, circa 1989, and throwing in a heart problem is just overkill.

It’s understandably not huge news–the back of the bullpen is such that I half-expect an intrepid reporter to look back there one day and find Jesse Orosco’s skeleton, left hand dangling from the Nautilus equipment–but you’d think it could at least crack the Cardinals front page ahead of SAVING TWENTY PERCENT ON ALL MERCHANDISE BEFORE 2 PM CENTRAL !! and the weeks-old Frick news.

I’ll always remember him as the guy who kept the bullpen from exploding in 2003, along with Kiko Calero; he was one of the first NRIs that I followed from Spring Training on, and even after his ERA ballooned to 135.00(!) a few appearances into his comeback he kept it together. Over his Cardinals career he managed to throw his slider by enough hitters to put up a 3.31 ERA–wouldn’t you know it, the same 3.31 ERA the Cubs just threw Scott Eyre $11 million at to duplicate. So, here’s to you, Cal Eldred–I have no idea why you were effective, but you were, and that works for me.

As for the Blue Jays… well, they’re spending money like they don’t realize the players are looking for American dollars. B.J. Ryan as the richest reliever in history? Well… I guess that if you’re going to throw FORTY-SEVEN MILLION DOLLARS at a relief pitcher he’s as good as any, but… forty-seven million dollars for a relief pitcher? That’s not all–the Blue Jays are now committed to signing one of the Burnett/Giles set as well. Now, what they do in the Great White North doesn’t have a lot of bearing on the Cardinals, because they still aren’t going to make the World Series, but if they sign Giles and suddenly find themselves needing a young, hard-throwing right-handed pitcher? That’s it, Vernon Wells, that’s it–come to Papa Walt.

“No posts for a week? You’re slipping, sir.”

“I know, Hypothetical Secretary. Pixie-ishly Attractive Hypothetical Secretary. Walk gracefully into my office and tell me what I missed, with gamine charm. And numbers, the people like numbers.”

“Right, Mr. Moore. Numbers.”

“So, what’d I miss? Hasn’t been that long.”

“The Thome deal went down?”

“Really? You’re kidding me.”

“Nope.”

“Right, of course–you’re the gamine, pixie-ishly attractive earnest Hypothetical Secretary. Had a temp in here the other day, you’ll have to excuse me.”

“So, about the…”

“Trade, yes.”

“Thome for Aaron Rowand. Lots of cash to the White Sox, some prospects to the Phils.”

“Wait, the White Sox acquired an injury-prone first baseman in his mid-30’s with declining production? Didn’t they just turn down Frank Thomas’s option?”

“Yes, sir. Rumor’s they might bring Thomas back, too, and platoon them at first and DH.”

“That’ll be good, for about five weeks. Thanks for setting me up for that joke, HS.”

“Any time, sir. General opinion is the White Sox got fleeced, even before the prospects got into the deal. Rowand’d have two gold gloves if he hit well enough.”

“Right. Thome had ten straight seasons over a .925 OPS before last year, though, there’s gotta be some bounce back even at 35. And if he replaces Jurassic Carl Everett in the lineup, instead of Konerko/Thomas, that’s nice production.”

“So I’ve heard.”

“Anything from the Cardinals?”

“Two restraining orders, and one very nasty letter.”

“… and newswise?”

“Nothing much. Still in the Burnett sweepstakes, and the Yankees have backed off of Giles.”

“All right. Well, send those restraining orders to the Hypothetical Attorney, and HS?”

“Yes?”

“Don’t let me slack off like that again. I don’t want to use any more bizarre fiction devices this year.”

“Yes, Mr. Moore.”

“Call me Dan. Oh, and put some Mancini on the hi-fi before you leave–I have some hypothetical lady-friends that I need to seem urbane in front of.”

“Right away.”

We’ve hit DEFCON 1, ladies and gents; Jocketty and Tony meeting with Burnett in Florida. I wouldn’t be so worried, except the other recent news is that his agent is demanding no less than a five year deal. Five years. The last pitcher to get a five year deal was… No, no, it’s too painful.

Of course, unlike with Park it’s easy to see the reasons people like Burnett; he strikes out 8.5 batters per nine innings, he’s got an extremely low home run rate, and he boosted his groundout:flyout ratio last year to a very nice 2.42. He’s got all of the peripherals expected of a frontline starter, a Cy Young candidate even… except he’s walked 3.97 batters per nine innings over his career, and it was only “down” to 3.40 this year. And while that 3.45 ERA looks nice, remember that he managed to end up with seventeen unearned runs to his name. Between the sinkerballing ways and the raw stuff, I have little doubt that Dave Duncan has been calling Jocketty and La Russa every few hours to see how things are going, but gambling that your pitching coach can straighten him out is a big gamble to place a five year contract on.

If they sign him, of course, it’ll most likely mean happy trails to Marquis, and the Trade-for-an-Outfielder Derby will begin in earnest. I think that, as far as the attainable players go, I most like the hypothetical deals for Vernon Wells and Brad Wilkerson. Wilkerson had a mediocre 2005, both at home and on the road, but I think playing in RFK’s unfriendly confines messed up his swing; prior to ‘05 he had put together three consecutive seasons playing an average center field and getting on base with at least a .370 clip. He’s not as exciting athletically as Wells, but he’s a better bet to rake.

In other NL Central news… remember how we were all mad when we thought the Cardinals overpaid on Julian Tavarez? Two years, $2.4 million? And how we–well, I was at least–worried that the Cardinals, coming off of the 2003 Bullpen Shop of Horrors, had overvalued veteran relievers? This is like one of those commercials where it shows a guy being late for a meeting or spilling coffee and feeling like his day is horrible… and then it cuts to kids in Namibia who haven’t eaten in three weeks, and you just feel awful. Because the Cubs just signed Scott Eyre to a three year deal worth eleven million dollars. Eleven! Scott “I Had to Look Him Up” Eyre is a 33 year old LOOGY who, in the past four years, has posted ERAs of 4.46, 3.32, 4.10, and 2.48 over the last four years. We all know that the one thing holding back last year’s Cubs team was their lack of a lefty specialist who may or may not perform well–and now, for only a slight markup, they’ve got their intermittently effective man. This is the part where the number flashes on the screen, and the old guy tells you to donate to the Christian Cubbies Fund. Do it; I’m sponsoring Tuffy Rhodes.

Deadspin is on board the Retire Willie McGee’s Number train; it’s good to have a mainstream blogger as a Cardinals fan, because if McGee had played for another team he wouldn’t have shown up on Deadspin unless he was photographed drinking with a pack of hookers. Anyway, I like Willie, and I’m certainly not opposed to his number being retired, but it would be criminal to retire it but not Ray Lankford’s #16. As I’ve said before (many, many times), Lankford not only played just as many seasons with the club, but also posted an OPS around 25% higher than the league average. McGee had an above-average OPS with the Cardinals six times, four as a starter, and finished his career almost exactly average. Certainly he was a better defensive center fielder, but unless he had to patrol Central Park he can’t make up that kind of offensive gap.

I understand fully that Willie McGee’s better loved, and that that should have some effect on whose numbers are retired, but this much of an effect? It’s not Lankford’s fault he came up on the Irrelevant-Early-90’s Edition of the club instead of the beginning of the Whiteyball era, and was inexplicably overshadowed by Brian Jordan and then–ah, explicably overshadowed by Mark McGwire on subsequent clubs. So retire both, or retire neither, and then be prepared to retire a third centerfielder’s number after Edmonds hangs ‘em up.

From Birdwatch Dan (previously TedSimmonsFan if I remember correctly), pretty much exactly what I was going to say about Wayne Hagin’s departure. Trying too hard pretty much sums everything up, from the attempt at making “You can kiss it goodbye!” a catchphrase to his vocal inflection, which would sometimes be almost humorously colloquial. It was like if one of the yuppies from Thirtysomething had been in a PAXTV remake of Green Acres.

He wasn’t a bad announcer, certainly, and I wish him the best; but hopefully this new guy will leave the catchphrases to Mike Shannon.

Also via the Birdwatch, RADIO EDIT Your Couch has heard via XM that Phat Albert managed to snatch the MVP from the Andruw Jones machine. Don’t know if it it’s true yet, but it would definitely be cool. And funny, because this is arguably his second-”worst” season. Yeah, he’s, uh, pretty good.

Viva El Birdos has a list of the first minor league pick-ups. Michel Hernandez is the most likely to have an impact; it goes without saying that he’s at least as capable as last year’s Einar Diaz model. He in fact was something of a token prospect back with the Yankees (around when Jimmy Journell was token prospect for the Cardinals), a catch-and-throw guy who actually had some upside as a hitter. Does he still have it? Well, can he post an OPS above .550? For a Cardinals backup catcher, that’s huge upside. Prentice Redman, another New York ex-prospect (though this one’s from Queens) could also pop up, although skirting so near Tike Redman being on the team is enough to send me to a therapist. According to his minor league numbers this one can actually hit, though–actually, he probably becomes a “prospect” again as a Cardinal–so I suppose I could be strong.

In a surprise move Clutch God/Biggest of the Papis David Ortiz lost to Alex Rodriguez in the race for AL MVP. It’s not like this should have been tough; A-Rod is a surefire Hall of Famer who had his best season with the bat in his career–.321/.421/.610–and played an above-average third base. Ortiz had pretty much the same season he had last year, in which he placed fourth in the balloting, gave up 20 points of OBP to Rodriguez despite playing in a hitter’s park, and oh by the way played all of ten games in the field, during which he managed a fielding percentage of .976 and gracewise made Frank Thomas look like Thurman Thomas. He wasn’t even the best DH in ESPN territory–that Jason Giambi was pretty good.

What does this mean for the NL MVP race, where the two best players in the league battle the second best center fielder on the NL Gold Glove team? Well, one can only hope that this wasn’t some backroom deal worked out between the sabermetric believers and the Plaschke-ites; Annnndruw is an even less-deserving candidate than Ortiz. I hope it’s Pujols, obviously, but Lee’s got a fine case, too.

This also proves the maxim that one should never, ever, ever pay attention to the bottom of the results. Somebody honestly thought that Bob Wickman was the eighth most valuable player in the American League last year. Someone–someone who is supposed to be an EXPERT on sports, someone who’s trusted enough to vote for the Hall of Fame, someone who’s a member in good standing of the BBWAA–thought that, not only was Ortiz better than A-Rod, Vladimir Guerrero was better than both of them. Jhonny Peralta, who put together an .885 OPS as a shortstop, had zero votes. Not a one. Chone Figgins had five, Jorge Cantu and Jose Contreras had one, but a shortstop with a .520 slugging percentage got zip. Figgins, I think, wins the inexplicable multiple vote award for this year; despite being basically league average with the bat, he got as many votes as Giambi and Bartolo “Cy Young?” Colon combined. I’m not condemning all sportswriters–I might become one myself–but really, please don’t vote unless your IQ is higher than Chris Carpenter’s batting average.

• … Who can’t even anchor the Ford Frick award coverage on the Cardinals’ official site. I mean, look, I like Joe Buck and all, but he’s no Mike Shannon.
• “Mr. Duncan, I’ve got a distressed one-time superprospect with a bad arm and a worse taste in his mouth at the door.”
  “Send him in, Effie darling.”
• Why yes, imagining the Cardinals front office as staffed by film noir stock characters is fun.
• I really don’t see the case for Dontrelle Willis; his park-adjusted ERA is all of two percent better than Carp’s, he pitched fewer innings, his peripherals were worse, and he was a train wreck for his team while it mattered, as opposed to Carpenter’s isolated, post-clinch freefall. It all comes down, I guess, to whether or not you count the pitcher’s hitting, but it seems to me that you might as well consider a player’s hitting when voting for the Gold Glove. And while I’m fully aware that that happens on a regular basis, two wrongs don’t make a right. Unless the Cy was going to Marquis.
• Yes, I’m a homer, why do you think I like Mike Shannon so much? His diction?