Wait, wait, by cycle I mean, “A degree in Polish.” But it’s a good title, right? Right?

Poor John Mabry clawed his way back to the majors, clubbed the ball off the bench in 2004, finally earned a major league contract… all so he could personally witness his dethroning as the answer to that oft-recited trivia question. If a certain outfielder had been offered arbitration instead of Roger “Outranked in the outfield by Hector Luna” Cedeño the Cardinals would have had their last three cyclists on the active roster.

But Grudzielanek’s day, while certainly interesting (and another trivia bit to put in the media guide rotation with his 50 double year), overshadowed yet another great outing from Chris Carpenter. His ERA not counting his shellacking at the hands of the Phillies is down to 2.08. If you play fair and take out his shutout, too, it’s 2.95. His peripherals are even better than they were in his breakout 2004:

      K/9  BB/9  HR/9  K:BB  G:F
2004 7.52  1.88  1.19  4.00  1.93
2005 7.22  1.60  0.53  4.50  2.36

Those numbers give him, as per ESPN.com, a DIPS ERA of 2.97. Those are ace numbers, folks, the kind that the mortal version of Greg Maddux used to put up. Not bad for sub-Jaret Wright money.

Of course, another guy pegged as an emerging top starter, Jason Marquis, has struggled a bit recently after starting the year on a tear. Today he struggled to keep the ball on the ground, most notably against Russell “3B True Outcomes” Branyan. (Branyan’s inability to hold down a job when teams like the Devil Rays are trotting out one of the Alex Gonzalezes to man the hot corner is one of the biggest indictments against a talent scouting system that still hasn’t fully absorbed the lessons taught by Pete Palmer and Bill James, oh, twenty-five years ago.)

The good news? Hey, who was that wearing Jimmy Journell’s jersey? When La Russa put Journell, who has struggled to keep pitches out of the batter’s eyes in his call-up, into a close game with the bases loaded Russ Springer and Pedro Borbon were, in all likelihood, all set to induct him and Carmen Cali into the Brotherhood of Maligned (ex)Cardinals Relievers (a secret society founded by the specter that inhabited Mike Perez’s body after being exorcised following the 1994 season.)

But Journell declined the black hood and considerable union pension by getting ahead of hitters by keeping his hard fastball solidly in the strike zone. The slider that scouts raved about back when he was a prospect also appeared for the first time this year. It worked more like a splitter, really, keeping around 83-86 miles per hour with some harsh downward moment.

So, a loss, yes, but look on the bright side: it wasn’t a Bullpen Meltdown™!

The Cardinals continue to roll on despite a .315 OBP (third lowest on the senior circuit) thanks to a good slugging percentage and a consistent starting rotation.

In other words, they’re the 2004 Cubs, who shrugged off low-OBP holes in the lineup by creaming the ball when they did make contact–to the tune of 235 home runs. The Cardinals have 21 so far, third in baseball behind the surging Dodgers and the Mets.

At the same time, their pitching has been outstanding; with Mulder recovering from a slow start and Matt Morris recovering from his millionth arm surgery, all five of the starters have looked good as of late. Of course the pitching is likely to regress; four out of five Cardinals starters are not going to end up with sub-3.50 ERAs, unless Busch Stadium’s groundskeepers get nostalgic and reinstall the astroturf.

Of course, as these things tend to work out, the Cardinals batsmen aren’t going to end up hitting like Rob Deer either; thus far only Pujols and Edmonds have OBP’s over the league-average .330 so far.

The pitchers, then, have been the story. I’m sure I wasn’t the only one worried about Mark Mulder after his two ugly starts to begin the year. I was even worried after his 8 inning, 0 ER start–nobody would trade Daric Barton, Dan Haren or Kiko Calero for a guy who struck out 2.25 and walked 3.38 guys per nine innings. The strikeouts are still low, but as Greg Maddux proved not walking anybody and maintaining a 2.57 G/F ratio are good ways to survive despite it.

Meanwhile, Matt Morris still hasn’t shown off the fastball he came up with, but the results have been there. His curveball’s been popping, and he’s pitching inside like he didn’t seem to want to do when he was throwing hurt in 2004.

Where are the Cardinals’ NL Central competitors at this point? At 9-9, the Cubs have shown pretty much the weaknesses expected of them–a hole in left field and a barren bullpen. Beyond that, Nomar Garciaparra’s injury means they will be ensured up to three months of Neifi-mania installed at shortstop. How bad is Neifi Perez? Imagine Jason Marquis batting second every day, and then make him significantly worse. I have little doubt that, given significant playing time, Rick Ankiel would post a considerably better OPS.

So it’s bad news so far for them, but here’s the thing: they have four starters who are capable of posting sub-3.50 ERAs. That will make up for a lot of LaTroy Hawkins meltdowns and Dusty Baker-induced Todd Hollandsworth overdoses.

And the Reds? Well, they have the same record as the Cubs, but that’s pretty much where the similarities end. The key stat: 69 runs scored, 82 runs allowed. If they win 81 games with a run differential anywhere near that, I will draft Ken Griffey, Jr. first in every fantasy baseball draft until the day I die. Even after he retires. If they beat the Cardinals with a run differential like that, I will draft Ken Griffey, Sr. second.

With only a month and a half until I’m home free from high school the teachers decided to kick things into high gear; that’s my excuse for not posting in the wake of Suppan’s loss and Carpenter’s gem.

Suppan’s numbers looked good, but he continues to inspire no confidence at all with the way he pitches. I know, I know; we’re not selling jeans here, and a pitcher doesn’t have to dominate like Randy Johnson to be successful. But six strikeouts and seven walks over almost 19 innings are a little worrisome. Well, that’s why he’s the fifth starter.

It’s also why Carlos Zambrano outdueled him. Seriously, is there any pitcher you’d enjoy watch beating the Cardinals less than Complainin’ Carlos? I think if Satan himself literally burned fastballs through the Cardinals bats over 9 innings I’d be inclined to relent (particularly if he was wild), but until then it doesn’t get much worse than watching Zambrano bounce with glee after every strikeout. That was just one of the many reasons why Carpenter’s shutout the next day was karmic payback.

And it was quite a game from our newly-signed ace; while his groundout/flyout ratio wasn’t up to its usual high caliber, that 6:1 K:BB ratio underscores the ever-more-convincing theory that the massive command gains he made last year are for real. If he stays healthy, that deal will be one of the biggest pitching steals in a long time, especially in a market where Paul Wilson and Eric Milton can pull down double-digit contracts.

On an unrelated note, I still don’t know whose idea it was to schedule all these games two by two. At least God thought to bring on more of the clean/popular animals; perhaps the Powers That Be could have gotten Japheth to load a few more bearcubs?

Cardinals-Astros tonight; it will be interesting to see whether or not this start will be another data point in favor of the “Jason Marquis has turned a corner” hypothesis.

Matt Morris, still looking like he spent Spring Training in Barrel, Alaska, was better than could possibly have been expected yesterday. His curveball was huge, his slider was established early, and his fastball was… well, his fastball still is stuck in first gear. It’s not certain whether or not he’ll ever throw 94 regularly again, but as long as he can hit 91 with the breaking pitches he was throwing yesterday he should be one of the best back-of-the-rotation starters in baseball with ease.

His seven strikeouts were impressive, especially given his ever-declining K rate, but you have to wonder how much of the flailing bats were thanks to his curveball, as opposed to his debut coming against the punchless Pirates. The single walk was, perhaps, even more impressive; it shows that he wasn’t nibbling at the corners of the strike zone, which he had to do when he had his bad stuff last year.

Oh, and how about Al Gagnéyes? His dominant outing yesterday brought him to 12 strikeouts in 6.3 innings. After his first-game struggle he’s been untouchable.

Lots of interesting things to come out of today’s Pirate pillaging.

Mark Mulder had his first successful outing as a Cardinal, but he wasn’t particularly impressive as far as 2 hit, 8 inning outings go. His reported loss of velocity appeared a thing of the past; he worked in the 85-93 zone almost exclusively, it seemed, but hit the high end enough to keep hitters guessing.

In fact, I’m not quite sure what it is exactly that Mark Mulder does to get his numbers into the Cy Young contention stratosphere he hit at times in Oakland. He throws what looks like a LOOGY’s repertoire, only harder, lots of pounding the low outside corner with sinking fastballs and loopy sliders. A smooth, repeatable motion, difficult to define pitches–he’s pretty much the anti-Ankiel.

However, while I’ll take 8 innings without an earned run every five days, 2 strikeouts and 3 walks aren’t the peripherals to repeat that with. Now that he’s got some success to build off of, hopefully he’ll strike out 10 or 11 for his next trick.

The other pitcher who joined in the fun, the longtime Get Up, Baby!-backed Jimmy Journell, was all over the place. Literally. He led off his first major league action in nearly two years by almost drilling the first batter he faced, Jack Wilson, on two consecutive pitches. He then proceeded to blow two fastballs clocked in the high-90’s through, and then–with Yadier Molina calling for the slider–blew something like a cutter by Wilson at 94. (He, according to the stadium gun, got as high as 97.) Going Nuke LaLoosh on the first batter has to offer some protection on the outside corner, right?

It was all that moving fastball from then on in, as he walked Jason Bay and then induced a double play to end things. All in all, he looked similar to how he did when he last earned a walk-on role: live fastball, not always totally sure where it’s going. Today, though, effectively wild was the name of the game.

Of course, the other big story was the Cardinals box score: this time with 20% fewer zeros! After Pujols and Rolen carried the Cardinals to their last victory, they were the only two starters (besides Mulder) who didn’t chalk up base hits today.

Jim Edmonds opened up the scoring of what, until the ninth inning, was an extremely close game by turning around on a high fastball in typical Edmonds fashion for a home run. Four of his eight hits thus far have left the ballpark. Less-famous members of the Big Redbird Machine did a lot of the contributing today; So Taguchi continues defy my irrational hatred of him by hitting the ball well. In honor of this development, I will delay calling him Honus Taguchi (for his inexplicable speed despite having what appear to be bowed legs) until further notice. So So Def it is, and this time without the irony.

Mark “I’m still calling him ‘G-Man’” Grudzielanek also racked up 2 hits, but the story of the day was Yadier Molina, who quadrupled his hit output and more than doubled his OPS, all the way to .262. He actually slammed another line drive that in many cases would have been a fourth hit, but it was caught.

So, no real bad news today; I can deal with that.

(First person to comment the movie that’s paraphrased from wins… uh… nothing, but go for it anyway.)

Of course, while the Cardinals’ early pitching woes seemed to be put behind them in this last series, several Cardinals hitters still have some work to do.

The brunt of the Cardinals offense in the early going has been delivered by that famed fearsome foursome of Jim Edmonds, Albert Pujols… David Eckstein and Reggie Sanders? Edmonds has hit .269/.375/.692 so far, and Pujols has struggled all the way to a .275/.341/.525 mark, but the other two members of the Cardinals’ murderer’s row were looking pretty helpless coming in to the series with Milwaukee. Even after sprinting into the Brewers’ nightmares in the past three games, Scott Rolen’s numbers appear to have been switched with Vinny Castilla’s: .244/.262./439 in 2005. Lost amidst the worry over Rolen has been Larry Walker’s scuffling as of late. He’s hit a Matheny-an .206/.289/.324 so far, including a nasty 1-17 slide.

Of course, if Larry Walker is hitting like Mike Matheny what is a catcher to do to endear himself to Cardinals faithful? Yadier Molina has been up to the task of being the ideal Cardinals catcher so far, hitting .034/.067/.034 for a stunning .101 OPS. Players are hitting really poorly when their OPS looks like a good player’s slugging percentage; that’s saved for the Rey Ordoñezs and Neifi Perezs of the world. But when it looks like a bad batting average for a pitcher you’re in uncharted territory.

Of course Yadier Molina isn’t really a .034 hitter; I doubt sincerely that the average high school baseball player would hit only .034 in the majors. Just try and keep Derek Jeter’s 2004 carnival of horrors to start the year and his sudden return to glory in mind while you wait for Molina to hit a more normally bad .250/.311/.330.

After the cavalcade of ugly victories and nasty defeats that started the season, it’s nice to have three consecutive sharp pitching performances to hang your hat on.

Jeff Suppan led things off with an absolute gem, going 8+ innings without allowing a run. It’s hard to ever say Suppan looks sharp, really; he always appears to be walking the quadruple-A tightrope like he’s one bad pitch or one marginal curveball from a 3 IP, 5 ER disaster. For a control pitcher, he rarely seems to be in total control, and he doesn’t have Carpenter’s big curveball or Marquis’s nasty sinker to draw attention to himself. However, you don’t get to be a fifth starter without some flaw that makes teams put you there, so as these things go not looking very impressive is a nice weakness to have.

Chris Carpenter followed up with the weakest performance statistically; he rolled until his ever-tender arm caught up to him, at which point he attempted unsuccessfully to labor through the seventh inning.

And then, to complete the set, was the guy who has so far been the ace of the 2005 staff: Leo Mazzone’s Rosebud, Jason Marquis. Through his first three starts of the year Marquis’s shored up his peripheral numbers for us statheads and–in a boon for the Mental Makeup people–shaken off and pitched out of trouble. His reputation as something of a headcase, struggling to keep it together on the mound, showed through at times last year as he clashed with Dave Duncan, but thus far he’s been sterling. Even after he leaves pitches up, or gets runners on base, he comes back. That’s a Good Thing, especially as Mark Mulder continues to pitch like David Duchovny. (Hopefully, the five missing miles per hour on his fastball are Out There.)

Here are Marquis’s updated peripherals, compared to last year’s numbers:

                K/9    BB/9  K:BB  HR/9  GO:FO
2004 Marquis   6.17   3.13  1.97  1.16  2.05
2005 Marquis   6.64   1.77  3.75  0.44  2.54

Still a lot of encouraging stuff there; if he maintains that home run frequency–it isn’t likely, as it would put him down where only Tim Hudson and Reanimated Jaret Wright dare tread last year–or gets the same sudden mid-20’s control boost that teammate Chris Carpenter did, look out.

One of the reasons people thought the Cardinals weren’t going to do as well as they did last year was that in 2004 they were stunningly lucky about players missing time. How’s this laundry list so far in 2005?

Chronic plantar fasciitis: Albert Pujols
Shoulder surgery: Matt Morris
The flu: Ray King, Al Reyes, Jim Edmonds
Smack: Abraham Nuñez
Myo… myo… heart thing: Cal Eldred

And there’s more where that came from. The Cardinals just can’t seem to get everybody on the field at the same time. Jim Edmonds is the latest, having been replaced in center field today by… Larry Walker!? Is Roger Cedeno really that poor an outfielder? Why is he on the roster, then?

Cal Eldred’s mystery ailment was apparently “viral myopericarditis”, an inflammation of the linings of the heart. He’s expected to be out close to a month, and as is customary with these things we of course wish him a complete, healthy recovery.

The Cardinals have the press release hidden way down at the bottom of the page, for some reason. In it they also mention his replacement, the much maligned Jimmy Journell.

His numbers in Memphis this year look nice, in the same small sample size way that his 2003 MLB stint looks awful: 3 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 5 K. And he’s wearing 77; anyone with the guts to wear a spring training number full time gets points from me.

I would, first, like to thank Jason Marquis for pitching well enough that I can nickname yet another player after a musical artist of the turn of the 90’s. It’s always appreciated. (I would also like to thank Slick Rick Ankiel, So So Def Taguchi, the dearly departed Rico Suavé Calero, and Frankie Goes to Hollywood Rodriguez. Corey “I’m already a reference” Hart and Gerald “Vanilla Ice” Williams could not be reached for comment.)

And Marquis really did look sharp, aside from an ugly second inning in which he couldn’t locate his fastball. (Marquis when he can’t locate his breaking ball is good; Marquis when he can’t locate his fastball is me.) His fastball was in the mid-90’s all night, and he managed to rein enough curveballs and sliders in the zone to keep hitters honest. As Al Hrabosky and Joe Buck noted often, he was running a lot of pitches inside for strikes, as well.

For me, at least, Marquis was shaky at best heading into the year; he didn’t really pitch with the kind of peripherals one expects from a guy with a 3.71 ERA as is, and he hadn’t even put those numbers up before. Through his first two starts, however, he appears to have kept his boat and his ERA out of the hands of the Fluke Season Repo Man. Behold:

               K/9   BB/9  K:BB  HR/9  GO:FO
2004 Marquis   6.2   3.13  1.97  1.16  2.05
2005 Marquis   7.3   2.19  3.33  —-  3.50

So it looks like the peripherals will still be there; the only question is whether or not he’ll maintain the same level of success with them.

And how about that triple? Maybe his hitting (a Cory Snyder/Juan Samuel-esque .292/.297/.375 last year) wasn’t a fluke, either.

In other news, I apparently jinxed Bill Pulsipher; a recurrence of his hamstring problem from back in Spring Training has halted his comeback for the next several days. It’s rare that I want a fungible veteran to take the place of a guy who could be a prospect, but I can’t help but root for Pulsipher to make it back past Carmen Cali when he recovers.

Or maybe it was the entire bullpen that I put the voodoo on; Cal Eldred returned to the hospital for a recurrence of his flu-like symptoms from opening day. In the meantime, he struck out four in two scoreless innings. That has to earn him points with the grit-and-hustle crowd, right?

Cardinals fans everywhere, and Al Reyes, should pray for his recovery. With Eldred and Pulsipher ailing at various times Reyes is getting the Mike Lincoln treatment, coming in early, often, and for extended lengths of time to patch holes in the bullpen. He’s been dynamite after his game one struggles, and he lacks Lincoln’s slider injury-checked background, but running a valuable reliever into the ground early is never a good thing.