The Cardinals aren’t the only team taking their final shape as the season looms. Lots of strange cuts, low-impact trades, and inevitable Juan Gonzalez injuries have made their presence felt in the last few days.

Juan Gone first; the minor league deal the Indians signed him to was a great idea, but he decided to cut off all of the “When will he get hurt?” suspense at the pass by getting hurt before the season this time. If he gets healthy soon enough he could give them 400 good at-bats, but he appears to have a running bet with Ken Griffey, Jr. over who will break more fantasy hearts in his career.

The vaguely Cardinal-related move of the week: Chris Narveson, the more advanced prospect in the Larry Walker deal, was traded with Charles Johnson’s contract to the Red Sox for Byung-Hyun Kim. This deal helps everybody involved; Johnson’s free to find some team in need of a backup catcher, Kim’s free to restart his career after a nightmare stay with the Red Sox, and Narveson actually gets a chance to succeed; Coors is where pitching prospects go to die.

In the inexplicable Pirates roster move of the moment, the Bucs cut former sabermetric icon Ben Grieve, despite his hot spring and career OBP of .367. Grieve is considering retiring, but Robb of Random Redbird Reasoning makes a good argument that the Cardinals should pick him up and dump Official Get Up, Baby! Whipping Boy Roger Cedeño. Granted he’s a butcher in the outfield, but then, so is Roger–and Grieve can get on base every once in a while.

The Pirates, seeing that they had angered the sabermetric gods, followed that move up by trading Eddie Money–no, wait, sorry, it was just money–for out-of-favor Dodgers backup Dave Ross. Ross isn’t going to hit .258/.336/.556 like he did in 2003, but he’ll hit better than his miserable 2004, too. Maybe I’m just over-enthusiastic about backup catchers who can hit, since the Cardinals have never had one, but it seems to me that a backup catcher who has the potential to slug .450 is a nice thing to have.

On the ex-Cardinals front, the Pirates have added Rick White to their opening day roster. White’s gotten knocked around since his dominant half-season with the Cardinals in 2002, but he should be plenty good enough for Pittsburgh.

The Rangers and the Orioles whiled away the last week of spring training by swapping disgraced prospects. Ramon Nivar, sent the Orioles’ way, was a generic empty, high average 2B/CF named Ramon Martinez for the first several years of his career. After changing his name to Ramon Nivar and hitting for an even higher empty average in AA and AAA in 2003 (.347/.387/.464 in AA) he inexplicably became a top prospect, even as his slide to center field continued. He had what was probably the easiest-to-predict disappointing 2004 for a top prospect, hitting only .264/.290/.364 as a 24-year-old in AAA. At this point he’s probably got an exciting career as Ryan Freel to look forward to, attempting to stick as a fifth outfielder for some team and get hot at the right time.

Matt Riley was one of the top prospects in baseball in the late 90’s, a teenaged pitching prospect with a hard fastball and a well-regarded curveball. After blowing his arm out in 1999 he rehabbed and then proceeded to get lit up for most of 2002. In 2003, though, two years removed from surgery, he finally came all the way back, and was looked at as a breakout candidate for 2004. But he was unable to keep the ball in the strike zone at the major league level and couldn’t get established.

I think the Orioles got the bad end of this deal; Riley’s control problems disappeared in AAA, so he seems like the kind of pitcher who could benefit from some good instruction. Nivar, on the other hand, is what he is: a slap-hitting outfielder who can play second base if a gun’s to his head, the proverbial rich man’s Shaun Boyd.

Yes, I have indeed avoided Jimmy Hoffa’s fate and returned from my trip to Florida. Among the things I caught:

Rick Ankiel can hit, or at least it looks like it. Unlike the distressing early returns, Slick Rick was taking pitches, fouling close ones off, and putting the ball in play. And it’s obvious he has some raw power; one of the pitches he fouled off flew just wide of the foul pole and over the bleachers of Roger Dean Stadium. His fielding seemed pretty good, too, and wouldn’t you know it he has an absolute cannon of an arm; I’m surprised nobody’s tried to convert this kid to pitcher…

On that note, Bill Pulsipher may have gotten off the quote of the spring from the bullpen. This is inexact, but he yelled, smiling all the while his borderline psychotic smile, “I’m gonna go play catch with the pitcher in right field.” while Ankiel warmed up. That was one of the many …interesting things that Pulsipher could be seen to do from the bullpen. Let’s just say it won’t be any letdown from Kline off of the field.

I also managed to see Andres Galarraga’s last game, depressingly enough. He was trying to hang around for his 400th home run, and there are a lot of backup first basemen around the league who still aren’t his equal, so it’s too bad he’s going to end up with the Dale Murphy special.

On the non-spring training, non-Bill Pulsipher doing the robot side of things, the 25 man roster looks finalized.

I can’t argue with the bullpen, after Mike Myers was traded for Minor L. Filler. Bill Pulsipher defied the odds and made the team, so Generation K is now fully assembled in the major leagues for the first time since the Clinton administration. The third lefty, Randy Flores, was less expected; after Ankiel stopped pitching it had been assumed that the three lefty setup would go with his curveball, but for the moment Flores picks up the Ankiel long-relief role. The plot will thicken at some point later in the season, when Matt Morris and Sliding Mike Lincoln finish rehabbing and if Jimmy Journell can continue to pitch well.

On the bench, Abraham Nuñez and Hector Luna become the utility infielders. Luna hit well in spring training after it was stated that he was competing for a major league job, and not just slated for AAA, but you have to wonder if a year in the minors after his lost Rule 5 season would do him more good. He also doesn’t provide a lot of variety; he should hit a little better than Nuñez, but provide less defensive prowess. A player like Scott Seabol, who could do some raking and play everywhere but shortstop, would be a better contrast to Nuñez, an ace defender whose hitting is worse than former “3″ Edgar Renteria’s accent.

It all comes back to Roger Cedeño, who continues to be totally redundant on the bench. He can play the outfield corners decently, but so can the superior-hitting John Mabry; he can run the bases well, but so can Nuñez or Taguchi; he can… well, he can’t hit. Right now he’s hardly even useful as a fifth outfielder, due to Mabry’s versatility. If his contract wasn’t guaranteed, the last spot on the bench could go to someone like Seabol or John Gall, who would instantly become a top pinch-hitting option.

Or Ray Lankford. Again.

More Spring Training pictures are forthcoming, when I figure out where I’m going to put them.

For those who love memes–normally not me, but hey–click [more] to see my belated entry into one of the latest to pass through the baseball blogging world. Courtesy of Aaron Gleeman, the first forty songs in a random iTunes shuffle. With commentary!

Feel free to insult me as necessary.

In other news, for the next few days I’ll be in Florida to catch a little Spring Training. I’m going to try to get some posting in, depending on the compatibility of my dad’s ever-aging laptop, but regardless expect some great pictures from my mom, and some shaky ones when she leaves the camera in my hands. You might even chance to see my shining visage, as she’s threatened to make me pose for the obligatory “standing in front of player who has no idea you’re there” pictures. Don’t worry, if I’m included I’ll be sure to warn you.
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If there’s one association in baseball I generally despise, it’s the player’s union. Er, if there’s another one, though, it’s the BBWAA, which nevertheless gets to choose Hall of Famers.

Let’s take a look at the BBWAA. As a general rule, the average blogger (or blog reader) knows significantly more about baseball than these baseball writers. As proof, I hold this up: Bill Plashcke is a member.

I rest my case.

The afore-mentioned Plashcke has this to say about McGwire’s Hall of Fame candidacy (courtesy The Birdwatch.) “I will not vote for Mark McGwire. It’s obvious from his own statements he used some form of performance enhancing drugs and it’s obvious from his statistics he did not become a Hall of Fame type player until he did so. I will vote for Barry Bonds. He was a great player before the steroids era. Most of the things that make him a Hall of Fame player, steroids can’t help.”

That is, of course, patently false, unless Plashcke would have voted for Barry simply for the 500 stolen bases. (Someone call Kenny Lofton!) Steroids give you better bat speed. The two things that have turned Barry Bonds into Barry Bonds have been his exceptional power and his preternatural plate discipline. Because his bat speed is better, he can wait on pitches. Because he can wait on pitches, he draws hundreds of walks.

Honestly, I don’t see why Plashcke is allowed to vote isn’t going to vote for either of them. Whether or not they took steroids, they would be only the latest in a long line of known cheaters in the Hall. Gaylord Perry and all the other spitballers; George Brett, the pine tarred; Ty Cobb, who spiked basetenders and did whatever it took; somehow, though, all of these players are heroes for cheating. If I have to hear the Ballad of Crafty Gaylord Perry one more time, I’ll have no choice but to ingest a fatal dose of vaseline or cut my wrists with an emery board. Bill Plaschke will call it a gutsy, crafty suicide.

The fact is, there are very few players whose statistics aren’t partially the result of mitigating circumstances. Every player into the fifties didn’t face any of the top African American ballplayers. Pitchers of the dead ball era and the 1960’s could put up ERA’s under 3 and still be below average. And the brand of baseball the sportswriters hope to get back, that of the Running Redbirds and the Gooden/Strawberry Mets, was itself a result of massive astroturf stadiums and was tainted by a more fatal, illegal drug, cocaine.

The sportswriters of the 1980’s wanted a return to the bandbox, baseball-only fields and an end to the astroturf-ball that was played at the time. Now they have it, and sportswriters want a return to the astroturf-ball played back when they were younger. The grass is always greener on the other side, even when it’s artificial. Hopefully, in 2010 or so, when sportswriters want a return to… well, something that doesn’t exist at the time, and are busy raging about it, they’ll take a look at McGwire’s stats and say, “You know? These are pretty good.”

I can only hope that, some time between now and McGwire’s first shot at induction, the HoF introduces something that will keep the riff raff of the BBWAA from making stupid decisions like this. Maybe a literacy test.

Tyler Johnson is once again a Cardinal. Er, a Memphis Redbird. After his much-maligned departure to the Athletics via the Rule 5 draft invited much scorn on Walt Jocketty and Mike Mahoney, the AAA catcher who did get assigned to the 40 man roster in his place, Johnson wasn’t able to stick with the Athletics despite his extremely live arm.

The return was expected for a while, actually; in his three innings of spring work, he struck out four but walked six, good for a four-digit ERA. With the Cardinals he’s in a better situation. His control still isn’t ready for prime time, apparently, and while there are several pitchers ahead of him on the second lefty depth chart only Carmen Cali would appear to have a lot of multiple-season staying power. It would seem there isn’t a good chance of a truly “fixed” Johnson getting blocked for a long time in the minors.

Meanwhile, another ex-Cardinal by the name of Daric Barton–I think I’ve heard that before–is 3-for-7 with a double and a walk. In the big league camp.

In another piece of good news, Rick Ankiel homered in an exhibition game with AA Springfield. I think he’s still got a shot to come up as a low-OBP slugger off the bench, but so long as his left arm remains attached I’ll always be waiting for a “Okay, maybe I was wrong about this whole outfield thing.” headline whenever I visit the still un-nicknamed official site.

The big news, of course, is Barry Bonds’s announcement that there’s a chance he’ll miss the entire season. The press is harping on his repetition of the word tired and hinting at a premature retirement, but this all sounds a little familiar to me. Bonds said much the same thing a few years back when ESPN the Magazine did a cover story on him, but the first place I recognized this reasoning was a little closer to the Redbirds.

Back in May of last year the Post-Dispatch ran an article titled Jim Edmonds Prepares for End of Career. (The article no longer exists on their site, but here’s an article I wrote about it.) In it, Edmonds spoke warily of not wanting to play out the string, or to keep having to wake up numb; he sounded like a player near the end of his rope. Up to that point, Jim was a little off of his typical averages with the Cardinals, hitting “only” .278/.374/.578 with 5 home runs. From that point on? .304/.427/.652.

The moral of this story is: take these things with a grain of salt. Both Edmonds and Bonds are supremely talented, even as pro baseball players go; both were, at the times they’d made these comments, somewhat frustrated with their own play and the press atmosphere around them; and I’m willing to bet that Bonds follows Edmonds in mashing after them.

Though a lack of posting may have made it seem a little dormant.

The official site, which needs a nickname, is starting up the hype machine–insofar as a LOOGY candidate can be hyped–for Bill Pulsipher, who’s continued to look impressive in Spring Training. He’s also continued to look… well, different.

Well, I guess that solves the mystery of the missing Carmen Cali.

All joking aside, a resurgent Pulsipher would be a very good thing for the Cardinals; with Rick Ankiel’s defection to the outfield (that was a nice 10-pitch walk he had against Detroit, by the way), Pulsipher could soak up some innings as a spot starter in the likely event that the Cardinals experience considerably less luck with the health of their staff than last year.

On a less happy note, Jason Marquis’s struggles continued. He and his sinker have allowed seven home runs in 13+ unremarkable innings of work, and with his strikeout rate he can’t afford to give up many more home runs than he did last year. Last I heard he was still trying to work a curveball into his repetoire. Hopefully, he’s just hanging a lot of them.

Anthony Reyes, conveniently enough, continues to pitch (and hit) well against a group composed more and more of major league hitters. His ERA is 4.76 for the Spring, but his peripherals paint a much different picture; he’s struck out 12, walked 3, and been victimized by Sammy Sosa once in 11+ spring innings. He hasn’t had much minor league experience, but at 23 he’s likely much closer to the majors than will be anticipated.

In a bit of a surprising move, Jimmy Journell was sent down to the minor league camp despite pitching well in his bid to make the Cardinals as a middle reliever. The once and future prospect apparently needs to show La Russa more consistency before he’s given a role. I would be surprised if he’s not spotted in St. Louis before the end of the year. Of course, I also said that last year. And the year before. And the year before that.

About the congressional circus from earlier today, I believe it’s time for my yearly plug of the Greatest Computer Game Ever(!), Baseball Mogul. The 2006 iteration, which came out a few days ago, introduces an expanded minor league system, salary arbitration, option years, and all sorts of bells and whistles, which have been built onto its already solid GM simulation engine.

I know Out of the Park has more options, but this year’s Mogul is capable of simulating an entire season in a minute or two, infinitely faster than OOTP. You can watch a Hall of Fame pitcher progress through the minors, flame out, and then convert to outfielder all in a span of ten minutes. In which case it requires much less therapy to get over than the real thing.

Anyway, check it out if you don’t mind never sleeping again.

There’s still some time to go before an adequate picture of the 2005 season can be fleshed out; however, oft-ravaged pitching arms and strange bats are beginning to climb their way out of spring’s primordial soup of non-roster invitees and prospects greener than a shut-in’s worst nightmare.

Chris Carpenter, for once, comes into a camp with the health of his arm only a secondary concern. The most important thing for the surprise ace to prove in Jupiter is that his suddenly sterling control (his 4.00 strikeout to walk ratio was double his previous career high) was a new performance level, rather than a fluke. Thus far he’s delivered, with a 7:2 K:BB ratio and only one earned run allowed in his eleven spring innings.

His four shutout innings, though, made up what was far from the most interesting Tuesday performance for those looking to predict the Redbirds’ opening day roster; to these proud prognosticators, the performances by two of the top candidates to fill Steve Kline’s vacated lefty spot in the bullpen were of considerably greater value.

Mike Myers had the clearest path to assuming Ray King’s role coming into spring; the submarining lefty has a guaranteed contract and is a member in good standing of the Society of American LOOGYs. Not only that, but he features extreme durability and a massive platoon split, two things La Russa loves to exploit. Myers threw an inning and a third of scoreless ball on Tuesday; you’d think all was well.

Myers was caught unaware, however, when a pitcher–one fitting the only archetype Duncan and La Russa prefers to durable, established LOOGYs–rose from the ashes of the mid-90’s Mets to challenge him; yes, a slagged ex-prospect, Bill Pulsipher, stepped up, even featuring a beard that patron saint of the slagged ex-prospects, Cal Eldred, would appreciate. After dealing with innumerable Generation K-related injuries and a debilitating anxiety problem, Pulsipher pitched his way out of the independent leagues and into a shot as a dark-horse candidate with the Cardinals.

His horse got a little lighter when Rick Ankiel decided to work on the Babe Ruth career path, and now he’s riding the proverbial white horse of momentum. He’s even joined Ray King’s posse! Thus spake Burger King: “I don’t really know Pulsipher, but I just like his attitude. In the bullpen you’ve got to have that guy who can keep everybody loose, like Kline last year.” He even upstaged Myers on Tuesday, striking out the side in his inning of work.

Carmen Cali, whose velocity is still about five miles per hour short of what it was last year, and Randy Flores have still yet to make a significant mark on the camp; another hard throwing lefty, fringe contender Hector Mercado, arrived late to camp, failed to establish himself, and was among the first round of cuts. It looks, at the moment, like the role of final lefty out of the pen will come down to a battle between a guy whose name echoes a certain horror movie and another whose career path has thus far resembled one.

In 1869 a reporter from the New York Herald, overseas correspondent Henry Morton Stanley, was sent into deepest Africa to find David Livingstone, an explorer of some renown who had not been heard of for six years. After two fruitless years, Stanley finally found the explorer, marooned and looking somewhat worse for wear.

Back here in 2005 Matt Morris has been found considerably faster than expected, as the long-lost ace has been spotted three months earlier than some considered possible, throwing strikes and missing bats in his first spring training outing, against the revamped Mets. Annoyingly enough, there’s no mention of his velocity in the reports; the logical guess, then, is that it wasn’t worth reporting to an audience full of Cardinals fans, in the 88-90 range he got knocked around in last year.

Morris touched on his fastball in post-game interviews: “I was just trying to get some good fastballs. Last year, I had trouble getting strike one for fear that it would get whacked every time because I ‘d miss my spots and get behind.”

He certainly should have feared the fastball he was trotting out last year getting whacked, as he allowed 22 more home runs in 14 fewer innings than his 22-win 2001 campaign. He didn’t seem to have any problems with getting the first strike in his spring debut; he didn’t walk anybody, and all three of his strikeouts–against wünderkind David Wright, Carlos Beltran, and some guy named Mike Piazza–were called.

It’s a very encouraging sign, although he’s still got to work on his endurance. A very positive Morris has said that he doesn’t want to wait any longer than April 20, the first day the Cardinals will need a fifth starter; that’s much more encouraging than the real Dr. Livingstone, who refused to go back with Stanley and died of dysentery two years later.

In a turn of events Brady Anderson could only describe as even more of a fluke than he was, So Taguchi and David Eckstein homered back to back today, off of Washington groundball artist Zach Day. Day was later found dead in the locker room, his suicide note scrawled on the back of an Eckstein card.

What are the odds of this happening? Well, last year Eckstein homered once every 318.5 plate appearances, while Taguchi hit one longball every 68.67 times he stepped up to the plate. That gives the odds of them channeling the Bash Brothers as something like one in every 21,871 trips through the order. Therefore, it should never, ever have happened.

Those are considerably longer than the odds of winning the first prize in the Illinois Little Lotto.

Probability not your math cup of tea? How about this:

David Eckstein (165 lbs.) + So Taguchi (163 lbs.) = Shaquille O’Neal (325 lbs.) + Tinkerbell Hilton (3 lbs.)

I think it says something about this in Revelation.