You know the winter baseball doldrums are already setting in when that’s the title of something other than a Berenstein Bears book. Anyway, I was looking through Baseball Reference today, because I have no life, when I happened to go to the Edgar Renteria page. I did my usual routine, checking his OPS+ for the year (a so-so 90) and looking through the league leaders table, and then, as I was scrolling back up to get to the search box (Hector Luna was next) I happened to glance at his career hits total. Then I kept scrolling, but in a sort of internet double take I looked back down, and then at his age. 1423 through 28, which seemed to me to be very good when you consider some people think he’s a year younger than that. But then, I’m not very smart about things like that–prior to this year I thought Jim Edmonds had no chance at a Hall of Fame career, but then I flipped positions and brought it up a bunch of times–so I decided to consult the Lawrence Legend himself’s Favorite Toy, a formula designed to give the probability of a player reaching a certain goal, like 3000 hits or 500 home runs. (Note that it’s no longer called the Favorite Toy as of the 2004 Bill James Handbook, but darned if I’m going to sacrifice a Berenstein Bears intro for journalistic accuracy.)

So I opened up the spreadsheet and put in the numbers and according to the Favorite Toy, and it thinks Edgar has a substantial–30%–chance at reaching 3000 hits, and better-than-even odds at reaching 2500. I think he has a chance to end up as a sort of stealth Hall of Famer, where nobody really ever says he’s one of the all-time greats while he’s playing, but he retires and all of a sudden he’s got a famous walk-off World Series hit, 2800 more in the regular season, and some Gold Gloves for bonus points. Before I go any further, of course, I’ll have to warn that the Favorite Toy is sometimes fooled (as late as 1998 it gave famous flameout Gregg Jefferies an 8% chance at getting 3000 hits; he ended up with a hair under 1600.) His case would be more contingent on how the Holy Shortstop Trinity of the late 90’s ends up, and that has already gone somewhat positively for Edgar with the A-Rod position switch and Nomaaaaah losing the “Franchise Player” sheen, as well as something like 800 games due to injury.

What does the Favorite Toy think about some other Cardinals? And other random players I added? In elaborate PRE form, with Marlon Anderson as the control group:

              3000  2500  2000  1500  HITS  756   600   500   400   350 HOME RUNS
PUJOLS        36.5  61.8  100   100         19.3  43.8  71.4  100   100
EDMONDS       0.00  .438  50.4  —-        0.00  3.29  20.3  92.0  100       
ROLEN         9.54  33.4  89.3  100         0.00  5.59  25.9  69.5  100
WALKER        0.00  0.00  —-  —-        0.00  0.00  0.00  52.2  —-
JD DREW       0.00  0.00  18.5  61.1        0.00  0.00  0.00  12.0  25.9  
V. GUERRERO   32.4  70.6  100   100         1.23  25.6  58.9  100   100
J. THOME      0.00  19.6  100   100         7.18  57.6  100   —-  —-
D. JETER      34.3  89.3  100   —-        0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  3.5
A. RODRIGUEZ  48.8  100   100   —-        32.9  91.9  100   100   100
C. BELTRAN    12.8  33.6  74.7  100         0.00  5.83  21.6  49.8  74.3
ANDERSON      0.00  0.00  0.00  17.9        0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00

It seems to like Albert Pujols, Vlad Guerrero, and Alex Rodriguez pretty well. That A-Rod has a 33% chance of passing Hank Aaron (on his way to Barry Bonds) is just nuts, but his move away from the Ballpark in Arlington hurts his chance. Albert Pujols’s 20% chance–20 percent!–underscores the kind of start he’s had to his career, especially when you consider that the last year of data the Toy looks at is his career-low home run count of 34. Gee, I’d take 3,000 hits and 750 home runs, if I had to.

Six Year Free Agents out today. Among the Cardinals are Alan Benes, Memphis Masher Kevin Witt, and minor league free agent LOOGY from last year/1995 Cardinal Doug Creek. And then, slightly more exotic, there are the objects of March worship past–Mike Coolbaugh–and barely-past–Colin Porter and Mighty Mark Quinn, along with Emil Brown, who had been an Astro, and Jason Ryan, who ended up a Royal. And then there’s former Diamondbacks catching prospect Brad Cresse. (Speaking of former Diamondbacks prospects, one of my favorite players–Jack Cust–is also a minor league free agent, and would make a solid pinch hitter. Hint, hint.)

More interesting, though, are some of the former Cardinals who filed for free agency. Luther Hackman, Jose Jimenez, and Brent Butler, the last active players from that fantastic Darryl Kile/Dave Veres trade; Keith McDonald, whose 2-2, 2 HR performance to start his career seems to be doing little for job stability, also filed. Matt Duff, the other ex-Springfield Capital (hometown Frontier League team!) to later pitch for the Cardinals, as well as the carbon-based life traded for Tony Womack, failed to make a dent with the Bosox and is back on the market. Speaking of trades, Matt DeWitt, pitching prospect in the Pat Hentgen deal a few years back, is a free agent. Speaking of pitching prospects who didn’t pan out in trades, Blake Stein, aka McGwire-for-who? #3, moves along. Kevin Ohme, who had a cup of coffee with the Cards in 2003, and Brady Raggio, a 1992 draft pick, are also among the free agents; Bill Selby, who got a minor league stint with Memphis last year, is gone from the Cubs. Les Walrond, never a prospect with the Cardinals but always solid in my Out of the Park career deserves a mention, because I say so. (Rob Stratton, never a Cardinal but owner of the weirdest minor league career since Steve Dalkowski, is worth looking up.) AND STUBBY CLAPP! STUBBY! COME BACK!

I may have missed some former Cardinals, those were just from memory.

So, who should the Cardinals look at? Warren Morris, LSU hero-to-Pirates Prospect-to-can’t make the Tigers(!) is a decent 2B and would be worth a deal as Womack insurance. Jeremy Giambi fell off of a Tony Clark-sized cliff, but he can still hit; nevertheless, I’d let some AL team take a flyer on him instead (particularly because he and Jack Cust are the same player, and before Rafael Palmeiro’s Rotting Corpse took over at first base I nearly had a Cust Orioles jersey made. Yeah, shut up.) Among the ex-Cardinals, Jose Jimenez can’t have lost all of the magic “effective Coors pitcher” elixer that allowed him to save 102 games as a Rockie, and seems like a no-risk, moderate-reward guy. Oh yeah, and some other guy, a certain Robert Allan “Bud” Smith. Wouldn’t it be great to see him back in a Cardinals uniform? Or any uniform? He ended his most recent minor league rehab on the DL, so who knows if he’ll be back any time soon, but what bad could a chance at a happy ending do?

I’ll take that pennant, though.

I haven’t really had to post through an offseason yet, so I’m not totally sure what will happen in this space, but I’m sure I’ll start writing again after the disgusting Red Sox lovefest wanes sometime 86 years from now.

On an up note, though, several hundred Boston columnists just committed suicide, having lost their Curse story crutch.

Can the National Anthem possibly be performed worse today than yesterday? I wouldn’t bet against it… I think it’s some kind of running gag these celebrities have.

Am I showing my age by not really knowing who James Taylor is? Nevertheless, not a bad performance. A little bizarre, though, he was running more (verbal) stop signs than Billy Joel. Hey, and he puts it back together for a nice ending. I give it an 8.

ROFL, I know you probably didn’t see it, but this local representative attack ad was probably the greatest EVER. They start off by comparing the guy’s looks to… Weird Al Yankovic! And it really was uncanny, aside from the short hair and lack of Harry Caray glasses. They literally just put the two images next to each other for the most awkward twenty seconds of television since they cancelled the Magic Johnson show.

Pitching Matt Morris on short rest in a home run friendly ballpark is such an obvious set up for horror that it seems too obvious to actually happen that way. Meanwhile, anyone want to bet on how many “Curt Schilling’s bloody sock” cameras Fox has set up?

Is that weird statbar with the batter’s picture on it moving new? It’s a little… okay, it’s really ugly.

Nice at bat to start the festivities for Edgar. Only 110 more pitches to foul off, please.

12 pitches, one out. I want to see the final 26 outs hit to the Manny Ramirez experience.

The Cardinals are definitely being deliberately patient against Schilling. After Albert takes to a 1-1 count, they cut to a little card to introduce all three people who hadn’t heard of Pujols to the man. Albert then introduces himself to Curt Schilling by pulling a double off of the outside corner.

Rolen interrupts McCarver and Buck’s latest human interest story–Rolen’s parents calling then-ex-Phillies manager Terry Francona and thanking him for all he had done in 2001–by hitting a ball about as hard as anybody can for an out.

Whoa! Rolen just threw the best pitch I’ve seen all series, throwing a bullet to Pujols while nearly falling into the dugout to cut Morris, who looks a little unsettled, some slack.

At least Matt got the two easiest outs of the lineup out of the way coming to Manny Ramirez. He’s throwing a little above average velocity-wise.

Not putting away Manny Ramirez coming up to David Ortiz. Morris gets another first-pitch strike, at which point Joe Buck finds it necessary to make me nervous by reminding me about the three-days-rest thing. Some second and third pitch strikes would be great.

Really, is it necessary to pitch in the stretch with Manny Ramirez the baserunner on first? I bet Vince Coleman could still outrun him.

More David Ortiz love while he gets another bat. He’s getting overrated pretty fast, someone told me the other day that he was better than Albert Pujols. At eating, maybe.

Morris continues to pitch out of the stretch, so noted burners Ortiz and Ramirez don’t pull off the double steal.

Well, that’s not how I wanted it to start, with a catcher tripling into deep center.

Dear Matt Morris,

Never throw from the stretch again. I don’t care if Michael Johnson is the leading runner.

<3,
-Daniel

Hey, I have an idea! Let’s walk another guy!

Trot Nixon, which would be a great name for a horse, finally grounds out.

During this commercial break I’d like to personally express my thanks to Roger Clemens for being awful in the all-star game.

More rock ballet from the Boston Red Sox, as Mueller and Varitek come together in a work of art that can only be described as “Better than Cats.”

Reggie showed the rest of the Cardinals the way on his last at bat, or at least they should have seen it. He took a bunch of low splitters and got a walk.

Aaaaannnd then he messed up and didn’t make it to third base on the Womack hit. It’s up to Mike Matheny now, who takes the first two pitches he sees for balls.

My goodness, yet another bad luck play as Matheny hits the ball into a line drive double play.

Yet another first pitch strike for Morris, it’d be great if he could string a few of those together into one at bat. He gets a nice, quiet inning, though, so I’ll take it.

My goodness, Marlon Anderson is the DH? Did John Mabry spontaneously combust?

That sound you heard after Larry Walker striking out was Bud Selig yelping with glee at the thought of a potential Red Sox win coming up.

Another quick inning from Matt, but seeing as he’s done it solely with an average fastball and a decent slider I’m not comfortable. Curt Schilling has arguably pitched worse–forget that, he has–but the Cardinals haven’t yet taken advantage of it.

I think they should just record two of these manager interviews and have the viewers suspend disbelief, because all of the leading and trailing managers say the exact same thing. If these had existed when Bull Durham was made, they’d be in the part about interview cliches.

Well, if the Cardinals lose today you certainly can’t blame it on Pujols; his leadoff double was about as good of a scoring opportunity as you can get against Curt Schilling.

Surprisingly little on the “Curt Schilling’s blood” front.

The Cardinals manage to score a run, but they have to rely on yet another act of charity from the Red Sox defense to do it. They’re getting some hard hits off of Schilling, but they just aren’t getting them in between the foul poles or the players.

Morris falls behind 2-0 against the first batter he sees in the fourth, but does manage to get his first good curveball over. He then, in an attempt to make me look stupid, gets the curveball over again for an out. I’ve decided he’s just impossible to get a read on until you see the aftermath in the box score, and he’s either struck 10 out and shut the other team down for eight innings or been knocked out in three innings.

Larry Walker is just an astoundingly good defender. He doesn’t look like he has any particular tool, but he positions himself perfectly.

I hate Mark Bellhorn. A lot.

I can see the Curt Schilling deification festival being set up at the Boston Globe. I would bet on him being elected to the Hall of Fame despite his mediocre criteria if he keeps these playoff heroics up. He’ll certainly get the Jack Morris/Joe Carter support.

These Emerald Nuts commercials are awesome my favorite is Egomaniacal Normans, which can thankfully be viewed on their website.

Gee, a walk. Didn’t see that coming.

Here comes the first focus on The Schilling Ankle. I, for one, liked it better in The Natural.

Well, that about wraps it up for Matt Morris. He very nearly had it all together, but one bad pitch to Mark Bellhorn changes the script.

Does anyone have any idea what Jimmy Fallon said there? I think this is the first case of the post-SNL curse taking speech from its victim.

Caldred saves the day, and despite my negativity it’s only 4-1.

Another Mueller error, and it’s just ridiculous that the Cardinals only have one run to show for some uninspired pitching and horrific fielding by the Bosox. There have, so far, been two or three plays that would make Bill Buckner shudder.

And a little Boston pride card slamming the New York sports teams. Pretty uppity for a team with 21 World Series wins to make up.

Another error! This is just a circus in the infield. History can take two paths from here; either the Red Sox get out of the inning with no damage done and people forget about this, or the Cardinals come back and this becomes yet another bullet on the “Curse of the Bambino” list.

And it takes the wrong path again. Darn.

Well, 6-1. The Cardinals have been outplayed, but not as severely as the scores so far would seem to indicate. Luckily, baseball is in match play form, so it doesn’t matter to what extent the winner succeeds.

First order of business: they were showing a closeup of Steven Tyler before he went up to sing the Anthem, and my first thought was “Ugh, why is Teresa Heinz Kerry on the field?”

And wow, did he butcher the Star Spangled Banner. I kept expecting Run DMC to come in for the chorus.

I love these bizarre Burger King ads. They may not make me any likelier to buy their product, but the awesome “Angus Diet” book, which actually exists, Subservient Chicken, and now this weird boxing thing are fun timewasters.

Hey, it’s the “A” list Fox Announcers! And this, with a National League team playing? Joe Buck’s combover looks well.

Wakefield made Renteria look silly, but Larry Walker didn’t seem to be fooled. Not a lot of fluttering, but it’s breaking waaaay down. It’s hard to get a read on where the ball is going when they hit it.

I’m not expecting the second run to score. Originally it was because I forgot about the DH, but after a moment of hope I remembered the DH was So So Def.

Hey, I wish AOL would play these annoying “We listen to members!” commercials more often. As a former member, I’m willing to bet that 90% of the members would complain about the price more than the Parental Controls…

Gaah! Woody just couldn’t put Damon away, and now he goes through the best AL lineup with a man on second. He’d better get Cabrera, it’s all uphill from him.

A bunt! But it’s foul. Now would be a good time to consider the over/under on how many times Tim McCarver mentions Theo Epstein, Moneyball, or Billy Beane. I’m thinking 50.

Whoa! A shot to the shoulder/head! Woody doesn’t look to have it all the way today. I don’t think this is gonna be a low-scoring game. First and second, now, with Manny. A double play would be nice.

Another high, inside pitch for ball one. And another for ball two. Woody Williams can’t go 2-0 on an MVP caliber hitter and expect to win the game, not with his stuff. Walker does him a favor with a good catch, but now there’s a man on third with only one out. Once again, I’d love a double play. But I won’t get one.

David Ortiz is quickly becoming one of my least favorite players. No, I’d say Woody doesn’t have it. Paging Mr. Haren.

Goodness, *NSync as bumper music? Are they trying to make this worse?

Man, I wish the Yankees had won the ALCS. This BOSTON CLAMORS FOR WORLD SERIES angle is annoying already.

Woody’s on borrowed time, the only Boston hitter who hasn’t hit the ball hard got hit hard by the ball. As far as scoreless innings go… let’s just say I’ve watched better.

Larry! He doesn’t seem to care what the knuckleball does.

7-2, I’m far from pleased.

And now it’s 7-4! If So Taguchi does something good here–anything at all–I will never make fun of him again. Offer’s on the table, So.

RBI 5-3… is that a good thing? Well, how about I cut back on the insults.

I think Wakefield’s meltdown set knuckleballers back a few years.

ROFL. And now, for your enjoyment, yet another AOL ad. And a 12 year old talking about saving for college. Which is less realistic? Shards of Glass Freeze Pops, a new AOL subscriber, or a 12 year old who is researching colleges?

In comes Bronson Arroyo. He probably should have been starting today anyway.

“Tim Wakefield would say that Tim Wakefield got to Tim Wakefield.” -McCarver. Wow.

Even weirder was the little “Getting to know… Kevin Millar” thing they just flashed when he was up to bat. This is a weird juxtaposition:

Favorite Hobby: Riding Harleys
Favorite Musician: Phil Collins

!! Fox was on the ball, for once, playing some choice Collins as the bumper music. And then, as the serendipity continues, a Disney ad plays. What’s next?

So Taguchi scores the run to make it 7-6, so I’m definitely going to cut back on the Taguchi jokes. He’s bordering on a full Tony Womack Pardon.

Tie ball game! Larry Walker is the man! I take back all those things I said about the trade. What a performance.

Wow! Haren looked like Roger Clemens there against Jason Varitek, featuring a splitter that fooled him three times in a row. Between Haren and Ankiel, the Cardinals should be in pretty good shape next year. At the very least, better than 2003 shape.

She’s no Kate Smith, but Kelly Clarkson’s God Bless America was pretty good. Steven Tyler, if he’s still awake at this late hour, should be taking notes.

Bad Kiko! I wouldn’t have minded seeing Cal Eldred in that situation instead.

Back to where things were, 9-7. Win or lose, it was at least heartening to see the Cardinals come back.

Womack’s injury scares me. “Walking with excruciating pain” isn’t something I like to hear.

What a bizarre play… Marquis ran through the stop sign and just got in before Varitek could extend his glove and tag him out. 9-8–Toto, I don’t think we’re in the National League anymore.

Larry Walker can’t lose. 4-4, and then he ties the ballgame on a Manny Ramirez error of epic proportions. Quite possibly the most awkward play I’ve ever seen, like if the Star Wars Kid was momentarily playing left field after being tutored by Dave Kingman.

Wow, Tavarez is going to be in a cast for eight weeks after the Series. That’s dedication.

And that’s a two run homer. Darn. Wow, they just showed the whitest man in America dancing to the post-homer song. It was so bad Mark Madsen just called and offered to give him the name of his dance mentor. I hope you saw him, it was a once in a lifetime experience.

Okay, so the Cardinals lost. But I’m not that disappointed. After going down all those runs, it could have been a crushing blow. Instead, the Cardinals got deep into the Bosox’ pen to even the fatigue, and almost took it all the way. There have been worse debuts.

World Series in T-minus way too soon. The nerves haven’t hit me yet, though, which is a little weird; when the NLCS started I was already a heap of gelatin, albeit one who could manipulate a remote control.

The Red Sox are the second team the Cardinals have faced in a row to feature a so-called “playoff rotation”, where two ace pitchers line up and try to win the series on their own. While there isn’t a Phil Garner on the Sox payroll to pitch them both on short rest and give the other team a chance, Curt Schilling is hurt, so he could go either way.

They’re announcing the players now, here come the nerves. I’ll try to post randomly during the game, if I can retain the ability to type.

I’LL RIP OFF WHATEVER FAMOUS RADIO CALL I WANT, BECAUSE THE CARDINALS WON THE PENNANT!

How did he get that one? Up around his eyes, and he just socked it. Remember, this is mere innings after he nearly took one in the head against Brad Lidge. And then… !!! I guess that’s why he’s Jim Edmonds, Cardinals Superstar, while I’m sitting here writing about him.

Clemens tomorrow, but the Cardinals lineup is the Roger Clemens of hitting.

It’s not over yet.

Seriously, all of the Cardinals fans I know were walking around like the living dead today. If the Astros could win three in a row with their backs against the wall, how come the best team in baseball couldn’t win two?

It’s gonna be a nerve wracking game tomorrow, but the whole zombie thing isn’t necessary, guys.

Just some random stuff while I watch the home plate umpire’s horrible strike zone screw up Matt Morris–it’s a Glavine strike zone, with no high or low strike, and there isn’t much of the Glavine outside cooooooorrrrrrner to make up for it.

Baseball Reference got the 2004 stats up scarily fast, so I’ve spent an hour or so perusing the new OPS+ and ERA+ numbers, among many other things.

Albert Pujols managed to once again get Joltin’ Joe DiMaggio as his most similar player. The first four years of their careers have played out as similarly as any two can, positional difference excepted. Here’s Phat Albert’s most similars through 24, Hall of Famers underlined: Joe DiMaggio, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, Vlad Guerrero, Frank Robinson, Hal Trosky, Hank Aaron, Joe Medwick, Orlando Cepeda, and Ken Griffey, Jr.

Wow. Seven of ten are Hall of Famers, with one more a shoo-in and another who’ll make it if he stays injury-free. Only Hal Trosky, who missed some years due to WWII and aged about as well as Crystal Pepsi besides, won’t have a placque at Cooperstown. Some great nicknames, too; we have a Clipper, a Kid, a The Kid, a Beast, an Impaler, Hammerin’ Hank, Ducky Wucky(!), Muscles, and to top it off a Baby Bull.

Jim Edmonds now has an OPS+ run that looks like this: 148, 150, 163, 161, 173. Ken Griffey, Jr.’s best five year run is eerily similar–135, 155, 148, 172, 170.

Ray Lankford managed to get his OPS+ back above average. Also of note: Ichiro!’s 2004, hyped beyond belief, amounted to a career-high 135 OPS+. Here are some players who have had 130 OPS+’s or higher; tell me if they look like MVPs to you:

Ray Lankford, 1992, 1997, 1998
Reggie Sanders, 1995, 2003
Jeremy Giambi, 2002
John Vander Wal, 2000
Geoff Jenkins, 1999, 2000, 2003
Dave Kingman, 1978, 1979, 1984
Rob Deer, 1992

Do I need to keep going?