What will we do now?

EQA: “Equivalent Average”, a statistic that takes all of a player’s contributions offensively and makes it look like a batting average. .260 is average, .300 is good, like that. Minor league numbers are adjusted to a major league level.

Womack:   .265
Seabol:   .250
Luna:     .244
Hart:     .226
Anderson: .226

Rolen ‘02

Rolen: .303
Cairo: .238
Womack going down would be bad, but it wouldn’t be Rolen-bad. Just repeat that. 

6. John Gall .292/.350/.490 at AAA Memphis. Along with Jimmy Journell, one of the members of the “Token Top Prospect” club. “Stones” got off to a fast start, and were it not for John Mabry he could have been called up midway through the year. However, his defense–he’s Dmitri Young, without the nifty ability to stand around at third base if need be–and a brutal finish dropped his stock in St. Louis. At 26 he’s no more a prospect than Seabol, now, but he could cheaply and capably fill a pinch hitter role in the years to come. Just don’t give him a glove.

7. Dan Haren 4.15 ERA, 150 K in 128 IP with AAA Memphis. Possibly the top Cardinal prospect heading into 2004, he got off to a sterling start and, had he not been called up several times during the season he would likely have continued to lead the league in strikeouts. His K/9 mark, 10.55, was actually the highest of his professional career. The problem was in his home runs allowed. After giving up .651 and .715 per nine in his previous two years, he allowed 1.34 this year. His walks were also up noticeably. He’ll likely get every chance to make the Cardinals rotation next year, so some Dave Duncan magic would be nice.

10. Chris Duncan .289/.393/.473, 16 HR at AA Tennessee. With his prospect sheen worn off after two subpar seasons and John Santor and Andy Schutzenhofer nipping at his heels, Dave’s son finally put up the numbers expected of him since his 2001 Peoria campaign. He’s a noted statue at first base, and at 24 next year he’ll have to move quickly, but it was an encouraging sign from a player many had written off.

9. Cody Haerther .316/.383/.436 at lo-A Peoria. He’d be higher on the list if he was still a third baseman, but there isn’t exactly a hole for him to fill there. He had a nice year for a 20 year old, although his power left a lot to be desired. If he’s going to reach the majors, he’s going to need a boost; left fielders don’t stick around all that long with a .436 slugging percentage.

10. Papo Bolivar .295/.373/.459, 51 SB at AA Tennessee. Who? Coming up on his 10th year as a minor leaguer, the 25 year-old Bolivar, who would definitely be higher on the all-name list, broke out with an .832 OPS. It was his fifth year at AA–he was pushed aggresively, it looks like–so you should probably take his stats with a grain of salt. However, he’s the same age John Gall was when he became a prospect last year, and Bolivar had a very similar year, so you never know. I only wish the Cardinals had given him a taste of AAA.

As the subject says, I’m struggling to keep focus as the Cardinals make their way to the postseason. Do you think, if this was a true stretch run, that I’d be apathetic about Rick Ankiel struggling? (Well, I kind of would be anyway; he was a curveball pitcher at Coors field, where the whole breed pretty much performs like Pedro Borbon, Jr. But I would have posted about it, at least.) It’s gotten to such a point that I hadn’t even noticed that they were playing today until I suddenly remembered and checked the final box score. And while I was certainly pleased with sinkerballer Jason Marquis’s success at altitude (Planet Coors, as Baseball Prospectus used to say.), I wasn’t as elated about it as I usually am.

In that grand tradition, then, a list, the first five today and the second five when it’s not extremely late at night. Not of prospects, as I was careful to put in the profile; rather, of minor leaguers. To be honest, I don’t know enough about what kind of stuff a pitcher has, or how projectable somebody’s power is. I’m just worrying about the year a player had. I will, however, take the rarity of a player’s season into account; John Gall had a good year in Memphis; he mashed the ball. Daric Barton, on the other hand, mashed the ball while taking walks and playing at a level very high for his age. So I’d rank Barton ahead.

In fact,

1. Daric Barton .313/.445/.511 at lo-A Peoria. Daric had a weird season as an 18 year old. In rookie ball, he hit around .300 with solid power and an incredible walk total for someone who, when drafted, couldn’t buy cigarettes. In 2004, after missing April rehabbing an injury, he came out swinging, doing everything he had done in 2003, only better. So what do we have now? A catcher who hits for average, walks like Ted Williams, and hits with rare power for a teenager. I’d say that’s encouraging.

2. Brad Thompson 2.19 ERA, 72.1 IP at AA Tennessee, 5.37 ERA, 14.2 innings at AAA Memphis. He may have been a total fluke, and his season ended on a bad note, but I’ve got to give this spot to WonderBrad, who was the minor league story before Bartonmania. For a system whose strength was pitching, Thompson managed to rise above the Narvesons, Hawksworths, and Wainwrights on the strength of a nasty sinker and a 5:1 K:BB ratio. Hopefully he’ll prove next year that, at 23, his best years are still ahead of him.

3. Anthony Reyes 2.91 ERA, 102 K at AA Tennessee. Another 2003 draft pick has played immediate dividends for the Cardinals, as Reyes rocketed past every other pitching prospect in his first professional season. In his 12 starts, he managed 12.35 strikeouts per 9 innings, with a sparkling 7.86:1 K/BB ratio. He’ll be 22 and likely at AAA next year, and as a polished collegiate pitcher he could end up at St. Louis as soon as next year.

4. Kevin Witt .306/.353/.600, 36 home runs at AAA Memphis. Kevin Witt, a 30 year old whose major league experience came primarily with one of the worst teams in major league history, isn’t usually the kind of guy you get excited about when he signs with your team. Witt, however, has the potential to be a solid player off of the bench, pretty much the current John Mabry role. As if the .600 slugging percentage wouldn’t be enough, he also plays both infield and outfield corners; as an added twist, he was drafted as a shortstop. Back before the season began I said that he would fit the Craig Paquette mold; they’re both similar high-power low-OBP batters, he plays the corners well, LaRussa could have his usual defense-juggling fun and slot him at second base on occasion, and they both have played for the Detroit Tigers at one time. It’s really a little eerie.

5. Scott Seabol .304/.356/.539 at AAA Memphis. It’s rarely a good thing for guys like Scott Seabol to appear on prospect lists, but that doesn’t diminish his accomplishments at all. Seabol, who can play both 2B and 3B, is a certified member of the Ken Phelps Underappreciated Player Society. He could easily be an upgrade for many teams–he’s certainly better than the Tony Batistas and Marco Scutaros of the world–but because he has a grand total of one major league at bat he’s not likely to get the chance any time soon.

While it’s disheartening to not see players like Dan Haren, who struggled with the longball; Blake Hawksworth, who struggled once again to stay healthy; and Adam Wainwright, who just plain struggled on the list, Barton, Reyes, and Thompson are solid replacements, and having majors-ready talent like Seabol and Witt as insurance in Memphis is reassuring.

2004. These Cardinals are officially one of the best teams in the St. Louis Nationals’ storied history, winning their 100th game before the 20th anniversary of the almost-champion ‘85 Cardinals. And they did it with back-to-backers from Yadier ‘My Slugging percentage is lower than Jim Edmonds’s batting average’ Molina and Hector Luna. That ought to make a nice trivia question, say, twenty years from now.

In an offseason preview, I’m here writing some filler during the post-clinch regular season. Remember those days, long, long ago, when the talk was about how Prior was going to be a Cy Young candidate for the next ten years? And how Petitte and Clemens and Oswalt was one of the most formidable 1-2-3 punches in the league? And how STEVE COX AND BRENT BUTLER were going to be the starters at first and second? Remember that? Well, here’s where the runners-up in the positional contests have ended up.

Steve Cox, 1B-LF
What I said about him then: “Steve Cox… is one of the “Ken Phelps All-Star” players Baseball Prospectus used to like to hype as a guy who could do a lot given the chance… when finally given a chance he blew it, hitting at a .727 OPS in 2002, his “27″ season… PECOTA gives him a 90% chance of hitting below replacement level. Ouch.” “Paging Roy Hobbs… or Shane Spencer”, 3/9/04
What he’s doing now: Waived March 14th, because Tony La Russa wanted him to get the chance to sign with another team. However, I have no idea where he is now. I searched the Japanese leagues, I searched the minor leagues, but the only baseball-playing Steve Cox I found was in high school.

Brent Butler, 2B
What I said about him then: Nothing much, just that it marked the death knell for Bo Hart-as-starter.
What he’s doing now: Playing for the Greenville Braves of the AA Southern League (the Braves have a logjam up the middle.) Possibly sensing that, he struggled, hitting only .245/.314/.352 in his 196 at bats. A far cry from the player who, while with the Cardinals in 1998, was named by Baseball Prospectus as one of the top 5 shortstop prospects in baseball. It’s not like he’s any different from the Marlon Andersons or the Wilson Delgados of the world, and he at one time had some solid power-hitting potential, but he needs a chance to build up that utility-role sheen somewhere.

Emil Brown, OF
What I said about him then: “Emil Brown has gotten some attention by hitting well in the early going in spring this year. Spring Training stats, of course, must be taken with a grain of salt; Mike Matheny stole a base just two games earlier… he looks to be the Mike Coolbaugh award winner for 2004, as a player who destroyed the ball in ST and then failed to make the team. It’s nothing that will kill the team either way.”
What’s he doing now: After being waived by Memphis he’s hit well with Houston’s AAA affiliate, a .337/.386/.533 mark in 26 games.

More tomorrow.

The game yesterday was, shall we say… boring, aside from a brief interlude by Rick Ankiel and his friend Koufax the Kurveball. Seriously, I’ve seen plenty of baseball. Zito, Morris, Brett Myers, even Jason Isringhausen, who still holds his spot in my lineup for “best righthanded curveball.” But Rick Ankiel was throwing the pitch like Billy Wagner throws a fastball, or Randy Johnson a slider. Pitches were peaking two feet over the batters heads, before threading it back through the strikezone. He buckled knees. He threw it for strikes. I’m only 17, so forgive me if I lack hindsight, but I’ve never seen a better curveball than that.

Nothing to see here, just the usual Carpenter-Haren-King-Eldred-Reyes shutout. But they couldn’t have done it without our murderer’s row–Taguchi, Cedeno, Matheny, and Womack, of course–each driving in a run.

After a nice little sabbatical from playing well, the Cardinals played the exact opposite of their last game. This outing was a tight, well-played affair, with some fantastic defensive plays–Larry Walker’s deke of a baserunner that kept him from scoring and Tony Womack’s throw to the plate come to mind–and solid pitching performances.

Mike Matheny, by month:
APR .280  .313  .440
MAY .225  .283  .324
JUN .300  .290  .333 (Now there’s a line.)
JUL .226  .279  .274
AUG .211  .263  .282
SEP .290  .371  .452

Now, that’s certainly weird, but bookend seasons like that aren’t totally uncommon; Alfonso Soriano 2003, for instance. The weird thing is, this is a trend for Mike. Here’s his 2004 OPS split, and then his three year mark.

APR .753  .738
MAY .607  .574
JUN .623  .677
JUL .553  .517
AUG .545  .525
SEP .823  .736

The problem is his power seems to vacation at Martha’s Vineyard during the summer months. Over those three years he has 10 home runs in April and September, 8 over May, June, July, August. This year he has 3 in April and September, 1 over the summer. Most people say he tires in the heat, but his time-sharing arrangement with Yadier Molina kind of refutes that this year. His stance seems to never be the same over more than five or ten games in a row, so my guess is that he gets totally out of whack in the dog days of the year, finally getting things together by the end of the year.

Think about Matt Morris for a second. No, not 2001-2002 Matty Mo, or 1997-1998 Matt the kid, but the current model. What are you thinking about? It’s probably not his big curve, or his dominant outings. It probably has something to do with his being king of the flakes. Sometimes Matt has everything working, and nobody can touch him. Other times, he’s Jamie Moyer without the control.

As a result, a lot of people are lobbying for La Russa to leave him in the pen for the playoffs, as the forgotten starter. It stands to reason, after all, that you don’t want to take a chance on Morris self-destructing in the first inning and costing you a game in a short series.

But lately, Suppan’s been hit or miss too. With his latest miss in the books, i decided to take the time to see who’s been flakiest.

What did I use? Game Scores, Bill James’s method of scoring a pitcher’s individual performances. Suppan and Morris are nearly identical in terms of average Game Scores; 51 and 50, respectively. 50 is average, so that’s nothing spectacular, but they are starters four and five.

I’m no mathemetician, so I decided to let my sight bear the results out.

Suppan’s more consistent, all right, but it’s not the good kind. Suppan’s consistently average to below. Morris, on the other hand, has his ridiculously bad outings, but also has the kind where he can carry you. So I guess it depends: if you want a guy who will keep you somewhere within striking distance, the kind of guy who’ll maybe give up 4 runs in 6 innings, go with Suppan and hope for Larry Pujedmolen to beat up on the other guy. If, on the other hand, you want a guy who could win a game by himself, you go with Matty Mo. My two cents goes something like this: Suppan’s bad outings and Morris’s bad outings, when compared, aren’t that difference in terms of giving you a chance to win. Morris’s good outings, on the other hand, could make all the difference in the world.