“One of the reasons the Cardinals are successful is they wear down pitchers.”
-Al Hrabosky

This is just one of those things you have to look up, and thanks to ESPN’s awesome stats section I can. The Cardinals are currently eighth in the NL in pitches/plate appearance, with 3.8. Actually, the top 8 teams have 3.8, but ESPN doesn’t go any further than that.

He has now singled, doubled, tripled, and homered on the year. Congratulations!

Marquis outdueled Kid Unit through 7+ innings. He didn’t have his usual groundball stuff going; rather, the hitters were hitting mile-high popups into Texas Leaguer territory. Whatever works.

The big news, though? Rick Ankiel just tore up Texas’ AAA affiliate. In 6 innings he threw 53 pitches, 44 of which were strikes. Four strikeouts, no walks, one hit batsman, no earned runs. Balls hit out of infield: 0(!) That’s THE Rick Ankiel.

2004 first rounder Chris Lambert and WonderBrad Thompson also pitched today, but I’ve got to keep my priorities in order. I’m sure The Cardinal Nation will have their usual outstanding coverage up.

You know, it’s an interesting idea, stacking the lineup with righties against southpaw wunderkind Oliver Perez, but is it really worth it when some of those right-handed hitters are So Taguchi, Hector Luna, and Roger Cedeno?

I kind of lollygagged about posting for a bit there, so here I will compare the 2004 Cardinals to the last few playoff teams, 2002, 2001, 2000, and 1996. Note that, since I’m unable to calculate OPS+ midseason, I used the similar PRO+, which was far easier to make a spreadsheet for. Position by position, let’s get started:

Catcher:
PRO+ - League Average is 100
1996 - 99
2002 - 81
2000 - 78
2004 - 67
2001 - 56

Well, I think it’s obvious the Cardinals don’t typically have their catchers in for their offense. The best year comes from a rare healthy Tom Pagnozzi, who was a very good defensive catcher. Matheny’s actually the superior hitter in the current 2004 platoon; Molina has some nice on-base skills, but he’s hitting for ridiculously little power, with only 4 doubles in his 103 at bats. 2001 Matheny was barely hitting .200, and 2002 benefited from a solid year by backup Eli Marrero. Unfortunately for Matheny, his best year, 2003, was also Pedro Borbon’s Year of Horrors. So, the weakest team wins this round, with 2004 lagging behind the pack.

First Base:
PRO+
2000 - 191
2004 - 186
2002 - 112
1996 - 110
2001 - 110

It would normally be hard to take out Pujols’s 2004, but 2000 featured Mark McGwire’s best game-for-game hitting, as well as Will Clark exploding down the stretch. In 2002 Tino Martinez had the worse of his two Cardinals years. 1996 saw John Mabry starting at first for most of the year, and 2001 was McGwire/Pujols/Bonilla, in which two of its components were on their last legs.

Second Base:
PRO+
2001 - 108
2000 - 105
1996 - 101
2004 - 98
2002 - 84

The two good Vina years win out here, followed by Luis Alicea(!) All in all, though, Womack’s having a good year, and he’s much better atop the order than 2002-03 Vina.

Third Base:
PRO+
2004 - 166
1996 - 116
2001 - 112
2002 - 107
2000 - 101

Peak Rolen wins running away. Up next is Gary Gaetti, who turned in a nice rebound season, followed by Polanco/Pujols/Paquette, Rolen/Polanco, and Tatis/Polanco/Paquette. Hey, that positional stability is nice, and Rolen obviously has the defense going.

Shortstop:
PRO+
2002: 118
2000: 100 
2004: 100  
1996: 89
2001: 83

Edgar’s improving his year as it goes along, but his walk rate and power are down a fair amount from his great years in ‘02 and ‘03. Nevertheless, he beats his ugly 2001 and Royce Clayton in 1996.

Left Field:
PRO+
2002: 157
2000: 136
1996: 133
2001: 122
2004: 106/105 (Sanders/Lankford)

That doesn’t look good. Albert Pujols wins in 2002, with Lankford, Gant, and Lankford traded midseason on the next tier. Reggie Sanders really needs to take some pitches.

Center Field:
PRO+
2004: 174
2002: 165
2001: 158
2000: 157
1996: 131

Hey, that Jimmy Edmonds is pretty good. Ray Lankford brings up the rear with what would normally be all-star caliber for a center fielder. That scares me.

Right Field:
PRO+
2004: 191*, 137*
2001: 171
2000: 130
1996: 125
2002: 111

Okay, so I’m cheating a bit with Larry Walker’s small sample size, but Mabry’s number is pretty good, too. Drew was injured for much of 2001, but was ridiculously good otherwise. Drew, Brian Jordan, and Drew again going down; could we get any more injury-prone right fielders?

Overall:
PRO+
2004: 111
2000: 111
2001: 107
2002: 107
1996: 100

2004 wins this by a hair over the 2000 team. So, this is actually closer than I expected, but .004 over the 2001/2 teams is a decent amount over a year, and the Cardinals are the best hitters in baseball. The 1996 team was the first one I was a fan of, but they’re obviously outclassed by these later models.

I may do pitchers later.

Marlon Anderson just pounded out his first extra-base hit in a month.

Incidentally, Ray Lankford has three home runs in 22 AAA at bats.

Random stuff today, unless I go on a tangent in the middle of something.

Nice article about Cal Eldred, something I certainly didn’t expect, say, two months ago, when his ERA was over 6. He’s striking fewer people out, but his walks are down, too. One of the interesting things mentioned is that La Russa still thinks Caldred (it rolls off the tongue) could start. This, along with returning Jason Isringhausen to the rotation, was one of my pet ideas last year, when Brett Tomko and Jason Simontacchi both had jobs in the starting rotation, and Garrett Stephenson was the first line of defense behind Woody and Morris. That hurts to think about.

Daric Barton’s current line, as per Baseball America: .326/.456/.546.

So, Julian Tavarez got suspended for pine tar on his hat. Before I get off of the specific topic, someone on the BBPrimer Clutch Hit about it posted an MLB rule that prohibits pitchers going to their mouth while in the box. Has anyone else noticed that Steve Kline does this all the time?

Now, more off of the topic, you don’t see much of the anger and betrayal that people seemed to feel when Sammy Sosa was caught with a corked bat, and doctoring the baseball actually has a major effect on where the ball is going, which is why it is banned. Of course, Tavarez is no Sosa in terms of ability or fame, but it just seems to me that pitchers always get off easier in terms of public shame.

Gaylord Perry almost made it okay to cheat if you were a pitcher! He was seen as just trying to get an advantage, while batters who are caught cheating, like Sosa or Albert Belle, or even ones who are only accused, are villified. I never understood that, and while I might disagree with whether or not Tavarez was actually doctoring the ball, I’m glad to see a pitcher get called on cheating every once in a while. The length of suspension is nuts, though, considering Carlos Zambrano didn’t miss a start for throwing at somebody.

Of course, I might think differently about it if Tavarez hadn’t blown that game last night.

5 IP, 1 H, 2 K, 1 BB, 0 ER. The walk was to the first batter of the game, and his velocity continues to improve.

So far:

A:  8.2 IP, 5 H, 11 K, 0 BB, 2 ER
AA: 9.0 IP, 3 H, 7 K,  2 BB, 0 ER

Looking good.

Also of note, the most valuable of the three pitchers given up in the Mark McGwire deal, and my very first favorite player (came in and pitched well in the first game I ever went to), T.J. Mathews, has returned to organized baseball after starting the year in independent ball. He’s with the LA Dodgers’ AAA affilliate.

But the Cardinals snap their losing streak anyway.

I’m assuming that guy who took the field today was the Danny Haren, and not the clever imitation perpetrated on us unsuspecting Cardinals fans earlier this year. He was throwing strikes, moving around the plate, and changing speeds, and until his stuff’s sudden disappearence he looked like a candidate for throwing a shutout.

I’ve been a pretty vocal supporter of Isringhausen all year (though perhaps I haven’t brought it up much on this blog), but his gradual loss of velocity is really starting to worry me. I don’t remember him throwing many pitches in the 85-88 range in ‘02 and ‘03, and unless I had just lost those amid the high 90’s fastballs and funhouse curveballs that means one of two things:

1. He’s fallen in love with some pitch that he enjoys leaving out over the plate. This is the explanation I prefer. Hrabosky has mentioned Isringhausen’s use of a cutter a lot this year, usually right before Izzy throws four low 90’s fastballs low and away. Since he’s hit 93-96 at times this year (93 today), and this slow fastball has some sliding action, this is a distinct possibility.
2. He’s losing velocity, which had better not be it. I can’t help but consider this after Isringhausen threw the “high heat” at Jason Kendall and reached 89 on the radar gun.

No matter what it is, of course, he’s been effective this year–you know he’s an outstanding closer when we’re worrying about his 2.75 ERA. The one question, though, is how? He’s walking more batters, striking out less, and allowing more home runs, while all the while struggling with velocity and unable to consistently locate his curveball; maybe it is this cutter he’s throwing now. Regardless, I’ve got to think that if Cal Eldred, five years Izzy’s senior and operated on more often than Joan Rivers, can still dial it up to the mid 90’s in relief, Isringhausen’s drop in velocity is an abberation.

In other news, the Cardinals Blog Thing’s ranks have swelled by two, with John’s The Cardinal Virtue and Robb’s awesomely alliterative Random Redbird Reasonings. John’s been blogging for a month or so now and has a considerable backlog for you to read, while Robb, a man after my own heart, starts his off by ragging on Marlo Taganderson. I leave you with a quote:

Now, maybe this guy that called in works two jobs, has 6 kids to feed, and a mother-in-law in the hospital, and thus can’t commit as much time to the Cardinals as some of the rest of us. With that being said - how in the world did Anderson and Taguchi rise to the top of this guy’s depth chart?
(more…)

5 K, 2 hits, 1 BB, no earned runs in four innings. One passed ball. Apparently he struggled in the first, going deep into counts too much (14 balls, 12 strikes), but he was unhittable after that. Versus top prospect Andy Marte:

Pitch one: fastball outside
Pitch two: changeup tipped foul
Pitch three: fouled into seats
Pitch four: curveball inside
Pitch five: curveball, struck him out.

The announcer’s describing a lot of awkward swings against the curveball. Ankiel just blew the hitter after Marte away, striking him out on three pitches, two curves. He struck out the last guy he faces on a curveball, throwing four pitches, four strikes. The unearned run scored on a double. He threw 62 pitches, hitting 93 with his fastball and throwing a low-70’s curveball. On offense he went 0-2.

You may have noticed a lack of Daric Barton content after a period where I spent most of my blogtime singing the young catcher’s praises. Well, there was a reason for that–he was slumping. But now that Barton’s adjusted to playing the most games he ever has in a season, he’s got his average back up in the .310’s (after hanging around .299 for a bit) and is hitting homers again. That’s a good thing.

You know what else is a good thing? Well, back when Barton first busted out in the Midwest league one of the first things I did was check his most similar players, as per Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA system. Of course, I was dumb, and only noticed the lack of major league ballplayers. This makes sense; he had had a decent rookie ball season, nothing amazing.

So I go back today, and I notice a few of the players’ names. Why, #3 is Braves uberprospect Andy Marte, regarded as perhaps the best prospect in baseball since the ascension of Mets Savior David Wright. As a 17 year old, Marte struggled to a .200/.310/.272 line in rookie ball. Barton was in high school at 17, but at 18 displayed some nice secondary skills for a .292/.426/.424 in the same league. Of course, in 18 Marte improved to a .281/.339/.492 line in low-A then had pretty much the same year in hi-A at 19. As a 20 year old Marte’s showing up pitchers a few years his senior, hitting .276/.357/.548 in AA. So, how can we compare that to Barton’s low-A mark, currently .313/.440/.528? Well, it’s EQA, Baseball Prospectus’s equalized statistics for league and park. Here’s how they compare this year, with Barton a year younger, on their own level and on a major league level. Remember: EQA is made to look like batting average; .260 is average, .300 is .300, et cetera. 19 year-old Marte first, then current Marte, then Oil Daric.

PLAYER  MIN   MLB
MARTE   ???   .215
MARTE   .303  .238
BARTON  .344  .225

So, Daric’s far more dominant in his own league, and is only marginally worse as a major league hitter. And he’s a year younger. And he’s a catcher. But how about someone a little bit more comparable to “It’s Hard to come up with a nickname for” Daric Barton? Say, a catcher generally regarded as a potential great if he stays healthy? This catcher started his career by laying waste to the rookie leagues at 18; producing at a .400/.492/.491 clip in 110 at bats, a .225 major league EQA compared to Barton’s .180. At 19 Mystery Catcher Joe Mauer, in the same league as Barton is at now, he hit .302/.395/.392; the power still wasn’t there. Barton, as I said, is at .313/.440/.528. After a slump. Now, Mauer’s a better catcher defensively, but that’s a .968 OPS with lots of power for a 19 year old and a .127 isolated discipline. I’ll make that trade.

At 20, Mauer started the year with a .335/.399/.412 mark in the hitter’s graveyard that is the Florida State League, before moving to AA and hitting .341/.405/.453. It’s Mauer’s meteoric rise that Barton will have to contend with next year, and his MLB debut the year after that. (Mauer’s .308/.370/.570 mark in the majors is great, except he’s been injured twice and may be forced to move out from behind the plate.

Just a little bit of perspective. And finally, because I won’t be tired for another two hours, Daric Barton’s minor league splits, by month:

     AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
MAY  .438  .583  .771  1.354 (had a hit in every game but one, reached base every game.)    
JUN  .262  .374  .440  814 (OPS was 1.004 but his last six games weren’t kind.)
JUL  .309  .427  .464  891
AUG  .360  .468  .620  1.088 

So, Barton’s big June swoon amounted to an .814 OPS. I must say, I was expecting at least one bad month, but I’ll take that. One thing I noticed from going through the box scores: Barton is extremely streaky. He rattled off several 0-fers, during which time he couldn’t even draw walks, going as high as 0-for-13. Other times, though, he’d be hitting the ball and walking when he didn’t. Good stuff.