Nomaaaah at Fenway, last three years: .343/.384/.586
Nomaaaah elsewhere, last three years: .266/.314/.459

Discuss.

After the three run first inning off of Chris Carpenter I was about to write an article about how it wasn’t some harbinger of bad things that they looked flat today, about how everybody has bad games and that we shouldn’t worry over the results of one game. And then the Cardinals did this:

-Top of the 6th inning
-C Carpenter struck out swinging.
-T Womack tripled to deep center.
-E Renteria singled to right, T Womack scored.
-J Brower relieved T Walker.
-A Pujols flied out to right.
-E Renteria to second on wild pitch by J Brower.
-S Rolen reached on infield single to third, E Renteria to third.
-J Edmonds tripled to deep center, E Renteria and S Rolen scored.
-R Cedeno doubled to left, J Edmonds scored.
-J Mabry intentionally walked.
-M Matheny doubled to left, R Cedeno and J Mabry scored.
-C Carpenter grounded out to third.

And so I didn’t have to worry about that. No matter, I’ll save it for some other panicky moment. If you really have to have something to worry about, I’ll give you a topic: Ray King’s over-4 July ERA. But really, why trouble yourself?

Rob, regular commenter on all of the Cardinals blogs, has one of his own now. It’s good stuff, and it brings the number of Cardinals bloggers up to a more respectable level. It’s no Cubs Army, but then, most Cubs blogs are, shall we say, lacking.
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Only two more days until Rick Ankiel begins the road back to awesomeness. As I stated at Baseball Primer, if anyone, Dave Duncan or otherwise, can get Rick Ankiel back on track, they will receive one of the following:

The name of my firstborn child.

OR

I will perform menial labor at their house for a period of 1 (one) month for every win New Rick garners in his comeback season.

Fun stuff, thanks to the new Baseball Cube: Rick Ankiel’s 2001 Rookie League season, in which he was a cross between Eric Gagne and Jim Thome:

ERA   GS  IP    H  ER  BB  K
1.34  14  87.2  42 13  18  158

That’s 16.31 K/9, 8.7 K/BB, and nearly 4 strikeouts per hit. Remember, Dave, the name of my firstborn. Or perhaps Mitchell Page needs his lawn mowed?

AVG   G   AB   R   H   2B 3B HR  RBI BB  K       AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS           
.286  41  105  21  30  7  0  10  35  11  26     .286 .387  .638 1.025

I mean, a way to gauge Matt Morris’ performance for the rest of the year!

I’ll be updating “A Beautiful Curve” for the remainder of the year and hopefully into the playoffs. A point for Matty Mo is a quality start, while Bad Matt gets the remainder. I’ll probably change it to “Blown Starts” for Bad Matt later on (I think that’s what they’re called), but Morris certainly doesn’t have many between the two categories.

This is just the kind of thing that you have to do on slow news days.

Congrats to The Cardinal Nation on their imminent move away from Geocities. Within a few days you’ll be able to get your minor league fix at www.thecardinalnation.com.
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Just wow.

I mean, when control artist Jeff Suppan walks ten, gives up six earned runs, and leaves you with Cal Eldred as your most effective pitcher, you can’t expect to pull a lot of games out with clutch pitching. When you leave 15 men on base, you don’t expect a whole lot of runs to cross the plate. If Scott Rolen goes 4 for 6 with 12 total bases, yet only plates three, can you expect the rest of the team to have picked up the slack?

Usually, no. But today just worked out.

The Cardinals had a pitching meltdown of epic proportions, suffered a Barry Larkin pinch-hit grand slam, couldn’t strand inherited runners, couldn’t score their own runners, played uninspiring defense, were forced to replace the sizzlingly hot Jim Edmonds mid-game, and were down to only two relievers with Jason Isringhausen struggling in the ninth, one of whom was a recently called up prospect.

And they won. 11 games up.

Isn’t that just awesome?

With Eckersley and Molitor’s induction just past us, a sleepy New York village named after a famous author once again takes its improbable spotlight in the baseball world. In this Hall of Fame-themed article Jim Edmonds gets a mention, but that’s not a great indicator; Mr. Jenkins also has Omar Vizquel ahead of the best hitter in baseball, 1991-1997 and somehow thinks Garrett Anderson has as much a chance as Bernie Williams, Jeff Bagwell, and Juan Gonzalez, as well as Edmonds.

Sadly, my Baseball Sabermetric Encyclopedia doesn’t ship for another day or two, so I can’t run any of the sweeping comparisons it allows, but I can and will compare Jim Edmonds with a select group of center fielding peers.

First, the control group. Jim Edmonds has been, since his first full season in 1995, regarded as one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball. He’s renowned for his highlight reel plays and has one of the most accurate arms in baseball. Up to joining the Cardinals in 2000, he was also one of the better offensive Center Fielders in baseball, hitting between .290 and .307 with as many as 33 home runs between his breakout 1995 and 1998. After an injury plagued 1999 season, which was his age-29 year, he was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals for Kent Bottenfield, an aging journeyman who had turned in an 18 win season with the Cardinals the year before, and Adam Kennedy, a well-regarded prospect at second base. No one was quite sure what to expect from the 30 year old, injury prone center fielder.

Jim Edmonds was, for once, the healthy one on a team that suffered injuries to Mark McGwire, Fernando Tatis, Ray Lankford, and J.D. Drew; this would be his only year with the Cardinals in which he was the undisputed MVP, hitting .295/.411/.583 with 43 home runs and 108 RBIs for a team that won the division. The most incredible development was the walks; after peaking at 60 in 1997 he drew 105 in 2000, boosting his On-base Percentage to among the best in the league.

He proved it wasn’t a fluke, over the next three years posting OPS’s of .974, .981, and 1.002. The remarkable transformation of Jim Edmonds, however, was outshone over those three years by the sudden emergence of Albert Pujols in 2001, the acquisition of perhaps the best third baseman in baseball in 2002, and his own second-half struggle in 2003. In 2004 he remains at this strange post-30 peak, on pace to hit 43 home runs and drive in 110.

Through his age-34 season he’s got a chance to hit his 300th home run. He’s nearly got 1000 runs scored, has a shot at 2,000 hits, and, according to Bill James’ Favorite Toy, a formula Bill James designed to determine the probability of someone, say, breaking the home run record, he has an outside shot at 500 home runs. (If he were to continue at his current pace and reach 40 home runs this year he’d have a 6% chance. 400 home runs gives him a more realistic 65% chance.)

That’s all well and good, but where does he fit among the great center fielders? I decided to take a look. I’ll compare Jim Edmonds to Ken Griffey, Jr., Bernie Williams, Kirby Puckett, and Dale Murphy from the modern era, and Willie Mays, Duke Snider, and Mickey Mantle from the past. All are hall of famers or possible hall of famers. I’ll start with Kirby Puckett, the most recently inducted Center Fielder. I hope to get one or two or three done tomorrow.

Baseball Prospectus’ Wins Above Replacement (henceforth WARP [actually WARP3.]) has their five year peaks running like so (Edmonds’ last number is projected out to a full year):

Puckett   11.0  9.6   6.9   8.6   11.0    47.1
Edmonds   9.9   9.3   10.4  9.3   9.2     48.1

Puckett reached greater heights, but Edmonds wins out with the consistency he’s shown since becoming a Cardinal.

In terms of career value, Kirby Puckett was forced out of baseball by injury at the same age Jim Edmonds is at currently. Edmonds has 84.3 WARP3, a ways behind Puckett’s 95.2.

Jim Edmonds is by far the superior hitter, though voters may not see it when his name comes up. Edmonds’ career OPS is .913–35% above his league. Puckett, who has more hits but lacked the patience or power late-career Edmonds has shown, ended his career at .837–24% above his league. Remember, this is at the same age, so no “lack of decline phase” caveats apply. Here’s how their top-5 (doesn’t have to be consecutive) OPS+’s stack up.

Puckett   152   140   138   132   131   Average: 138.6
Edmonds   163   161   150   148   137   Average: 151.8

Edmonds is likely to eclipse that 137, achieved with the Angels in 1996, if he can finish 2004 as he’s started it. Even with it, there’s a marked difference.

Conclusion? The matchup is slightly in Puckett’s favor, due to his consistency and, up to his career-ending eye injury, durability. It’s very close to being a push, however. Closer than I anticipated, given Kirby Puckett’s larger than life stature. For Win Shares, Jim Edmonds is projected to finish with about 29 win shares, which would give him 234 for his career. Puckett has 281. As Edmonds has yet to slow down, there’s a chance he could eclipse Puckett when all is said and done, perhaps even reaching 300 Win Shares, Bill James’ general Hall of Fame guideline.

After clubbing a Cory Lidle pitch into the distant past today he’s got 11 Home Runs on the month, slugging over .850. He’s on pace for 40+ home runs and 45+ doubles. Presently his OPS is second highest of his career, next to… well, last year. Aren’t 34 year old injury prone Center Fielders supposed to age a little differently?

Being left off of the all-star roster for Moises Alou must have gotten his ire up.

Doing what aces are supposed to do, righting the ship. Morris basically had his normal peripherals from this year, right down to his so-so groundball/flyball ratio, but without the home runs. I don’t see why that can’t be reproduced, so long as he KEEPS THE FREAKING BALL DOWN and stops trying to blow 89-90 mph fastballs past people up in the zone. No home runs today, so so far so good.

Ray Lankford was placed on the DL, retroactive to when he got hurt. Maybe the rest’ll help his sinking Slugging percentage. Dan Haren gets the call-up and the chance to lower his ERA in relief. The Cardinals say he’ll only miss the minimum ten days.