Now’s the part where I exercise that clause and write a typical opening-day-y article. Submitted for the approval of the Midnight Society, I call this article “A Bunch of Things That I’ll Be Watching in Spring Training.” (That’s Sardo! No Mr., accent on the do.

1. The Cardinals Duh, I have a blog to write, and I can only get by on early-90’s Nickelodeon references for so long.

2. Fluky players The first guy who came to mind under this category for me was Adam Dunn. Adam’s similar players listing at Baseball Reference is pretty weird. On one side, you have Barry Bonds, Reggie Jackson, Daryl Strawberry and a lot of guys who had some great seasons, like Jessie Barfield. On the other end, you have Pete Incaviglia, Tom Brunansky, and Ben Grieve, who never lived up to the promise they showed at a young age. I’ve never seen such a divided list. How’d it happen? The Cincinatti slugger made himself the biggest Three True Outcomes case since Rob Deer was busy defining the term. Adam hit .215, managed an OBP of .354, and hit a career high 27 home runs in 381 at bats. 40 of his 82 hits went for extra bases. Which year, performance-wise, is the fluke? It’s getting obvious that he’s not ready to put up his 2001 line (.262/.371/.578) now, if he ever will be. 2002, where he went .249/.400/.454, is certainly more normal looking than his wacky 2003 was, but young sluggers whose walk/strikeout rates are going way up aren’t a commodity to bet on in the future, as the Ben Grieve for Deification fan club quickly realized. On a positive spring training note, though, he’s hit .422 and slugged nearly .950(!) in the exhibition season. While his future is in doubt, he’s got a good track record for a 24 year old.

Esteban Loiaza was summarized in the 2003 edition of Baseball Prospectus as follows: The $6 million paid to Loaiza in the final year of his contract would’ve been better spent on a government study on the health benefits of gerbilling. Yikes. He responded by learning a cutter and turning in a Cy Young-worthy performance. There have been a lot of players in the past who have appeared to suddenly put it all together who have followed up on their breakout season by breaking back in–Bernard Gilkey jumps out at me. Like Loaiza, he was always thought of as a guy who would show off his great talent every once in a while but generally put up inconsistent numbers. But if Loaiza has genuinely learned a dominating pitch, why shouldn’t he be able to follow up with an all-star 2004?

3. Jeremy Burnitz + Coors Field =Hopefully a good outfielder for my fantasy team. But that’s a bit of a digression.

4. Barry Zito striking out? Much ado has been made in sabermetric circles as Zito’s strikeout rate has fallen by nearly 3 K’s per 9 in as many years. But the 2002 Cy Young winner has continued to keep his ERA at an all-star level, and no one is totally sure why. Some have offered the theory that his curveball from Hell allows him to control the amount of hits on balls in play, like knuckleballers do, by producing weak contact that has no chance of getting through the infield or into the gaps.

5. Sammy Soso Slammin’ Sammy had a decidedly un-Sosa year in 2003, even without taking Corkgate and the beanball that shattered his helmet into account. His on-base percentage was a mortal .358, and he struggled down the stretch as his team made a drive for the NL Central lead, barely pushing past the Mendoza line in September and scuffling to a .245/.305/.529 post all-star break split. It’s an alarming disintegration of plate discipline for Sammy, who only hit his prime after he began waiting for his pitch and walking more. In all likelihood it’s something of a fluke; most declining hitters walk more as they lose their other skills, and all of the turmoil surrounding him and a suddenly contending team could have had him pressing for big hits. But it’s certainly something to watch.

6. MAX KELLERMAN PLEASE COME BACK TO AROUND THE HORN FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEASE

7. Short Term Shortstop in New York How long is it going to be before New York fans and managements tire of seeing a gold glove shortstop languish at third while the worst shortstop in baseball continues to have less range than an SUV powered by hamsters? The argument has been well-made many times on Baseball Primer and elsewhere that Jeter would be no better a third baseman than he is a shortstop, since his main problem seems to be the reflexes and quick footwork that comprise a huge portion of a 3B’s job. But his good arm and speed would appear to match him perfectly to center field, and Yankees fans have hoped that that would happen as soon as next year.

8. Well, I guess Prince Fielder’ll be fun to watch. The Milwaukee Brewers have become more farcical as the offseason has gone on, beginning by trading Richie Sexson, who didn’t fit in with the Brewer’s “Horrible Player” movement, to the Diamondbacks for headliners like Lyle Overbay and Junior Spivey, and then inked Poor Man’s J.D. Drew Geoff Jenkins to a deal not befitting a team looking to rebuild. They’re less hopeless than the Tigers or the Pirates, because they have impact players like the aformentioned Fielder in the system while the Pirates are content with John VanBenSchihfoiahf and company, but they’ll flail around just as much in the meantime.

9. Mark McGwire day’s the 17th THE DAY IS ON THE JUICE! You can be sure that if he’s at all thinner than he was with the Cardinals the conspiracy theorists will be on the prowl. Of course, they already are; on the Cardinals’ official message board I had the “pleasure” of debating with someone who believed that Jim Edmonds’ sudden jump in playing ability was because he had met Mark McGwire and gotten roided up. Think about it for a second.

SCENE: A seamy locker room somewhere in St. Louis. Jim Edmonds and Mark McGwire bump into one another, and they get to talking.

“If you believe that, my boy, than you’ve been had!”

You know, maybe that’s just what came to my mind.

10. What was I thinking with that? I really don’t know. The song ends in my head with McGwire being held up by sparkler-wielding batboys who were singing backup. And the Rockettes.

LIVE, from the Some Hotel in West Palm Beach, Florida, it’s Dan, who needs to post something so people keep visiting.

The internet here costs 20 cents a minute, so I’ll have to be brief. The best format for such time constraints? Peter Gammons-style random thoughts. So without further ado, my observations from my short time watching the Cards here at Roger Dean Stadium.

(FURTHER ADO: I’ll be at the Cards-somebody game tomorrow. I’m the gangly, strange looking kid in the blue and red Cardinals hat sitting down the third base line, if anyone wants to say hi.)

Tony W****k knew I was coming, I swear. The first game I got to he got three hits in a row and stole second. That’s gotta be karma or something.

Ray Lankford looked pretty good, and all but got a standing ovation every time he was up to bat. That’s a far cry from 2001, where you’d think his name was “BENCH THE BUM!” the way they rode him at Busch. He made a couple of nice plays in left, in particular, which I think surprised a lot of people.

On a whim I bought The Science of Hitting by Ted Williams at a mall. Everyone who wants to look like they know what they’re doing at the plate has to read it, it’s incredible. At the stadium here they have a batting cage set up throwing 60 and using the stuff in the book I went from my usual batting cage experience, striking out in the 40 mph little league one, to acquitting myself pretty well at this one. Of course, the kid next in line, who couldn’t have been older than 10, laced a line drive on every swing he took, making me look bad. You win some, you get humiliated some, I guess.

Does Jason Marquis have a changeup? Or something under 91? I swear I didn’t see him throw something slower than a hard sinker during the six innings he worked. Lackluster pitch selection aside, he settled down a bit as the game went on and hit the ball pretty hard, too.

I am the not-very-proud owner of a 38 mile an hour fastball, which peaked at 47. Once again I got served, as the guy ahead of me was throwing 63, even though he was obviously a bit on the inebriated side. And by that I mean “Sloshed.” I’m just gonna attribute it to the Grover Cleveland Alexander effect and move on before I get more depressed.

On a sad note, Greg Vaughn is contemplating retirement after being assigned to minor league camp by the Cardinals. All jokes aside (”…I’d retire too if I was outhit by So Taguchi”, et cetera) He was a great hitter in his prime and his retirement puts an end to my dreams of the 200 strikeout/30 home run Reg Lankvaughn platoon.

On another sad note, Cody McKay’s last obstacle at a shot at the backup catcher job was removed as Chris Widger was waived by the Cardinals. I’ll leave the analysis of Cody McKay to Josh from Go Cardinals, who has an article running that sums my thoughts up nicely, and leave it at this: Cody McKay hit like Widger in 2003. Only in AAA. Could this be the biggest case of nepotism since… oh, I don’t know, some big case of nepotism? Who knows. Like Wilton Guerrero or Tim Drew, he’s unlikely to outhit the established major leaguer in the family. (ZING! I’ll be here all week, tip your waiters.)

Because no Gammons article is complete without at least four semi-obscure, random musical references, The Cardinals in Song:

Albert Pujols: “Automatic for the People
Tony Woeisme: “Why God Why”
Alan Benes: “Hurt”
Jason Isringhausen: “Hammer of the Gods”
Bo Hart: “14:59″
Chris Carpenter: “Expectation and the Blues”

Those are fun, actually. I certainly wouldn’t mind being paid Gammons’ salary cranking out that article over and over every week. But I digress. I’ll come back with something more substantial after I get back and clear up the homework backlog, so probably Wednesday-ish is a conservative estimate.

I’m gonna be at Spring Training from tomorrow through Monday. I’m gonna try to find someplace where I can do some blogging at the hotel or something, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I guess you’re all going to have to do without my daring analysis*, eloquent prose*, and brilliant turns of phrase*.

*unceasing hatred of TFW

BUT before I go, some stuff.

Red Schoendienst is awesome. I’m just gonna say that right now. For a guy to be 81 and still hanging around the park and being a part of the team is just plain cool–just ask Rickey or Jesse Orosco. (*knowing laugh goes here*) His hall of fame candidacy, however, is a bit weird when you’re just, say, looking at his Baseball-Reference page. His OPS+ is 93, which puts him near the bottom among Hall second sackers. (For the uninitiated, OPS+ is On Base Plus Slugging, adjusted for park and era. 100 is exactly average among all players, so a 2B would be compared to an OF.)

175 - Rogers Hornsby150 - Nap Lajoie141 - Eddie Collins132 - Joe Morgan132 - Jackie Robinson131 - Rod Carew (much of career was as a 1B, however.)124 - Charlie Gehringer121 - Tony Lazzeri115 - Bobby Doerr112 - Billy Herman111 - Frankie Frisch106 - Johnny Evers106 - Bid McPhee094 - Nellie Fox089 - Red Schoendienst084 - Bill Mazeroski

First and foremost, this has got to be one of the best positions for nicknames. “Rajah” Hornsby, Charlie “The Mechanical Man” Gehringer, Frankie “The Fordham Flash” Frisch, “Cocky” Collins…

But back on topic, Red only manages to squeak ahead of defensive God Bill Mazeroski in terms of offensive contributions. Until Baseball Reference gets position adjusted OPS up, I will once again have to caution that his sub-100 OPS+ doesn’t mean he was below average for a second baseman.

Another thing I like to do is consult my slowly growing baseball bookshelf. I decided to get out the seminal The Hidden Game of Baseball to start, which used the revolutionary Linear Weights system to judge the Hall. Red, by their system, falls about 4.5 player wins short of the Hall. The Hidden Game doles out far worse punishment to players like George Kelly, Rube Marquard, and Jim Bottomley. It even rates Lloyd Waner, the Little Poison, as 9 player wins below average.

From Palmer I went to Bill James’ Win Shares/Historical Abstract set. In his rankings section of the Abstract, James lists Schoendienst 28th all time among the second basemen, between Jim Gilliam, famous for making his teammates better and doing “intangible” things, and Bill Mazeroski, who few people doubt as a hall type. In fact, Red ranks ahead of Maz and Bid McPhee among the Hall’s keystone men. It’s pretty much where LWTS put him; he’s not among the usual hall of famers, but he’s not Joe Carter either.

(To give a little perspective on where 28 is on James’ lists, here would be the “All 28th best team.”

C - Smoky Burgess
1B- Cecil Cooper
2B- Red Hardtotype
3B- Chipper Jones–since he’s active, he’s between Tim Wallach and Larry Gardner
SS- Dave Bancroft
LF- Joe Kelley
CF- George Van Haltren
RF- Roger Maris
P - Amos Rusie

That’s a pretty solid team, aside from most of their players being dead.

No Hall of Fame analysis would be complete without the famed Keltner List, which is a series of questions that are administered to potential hall of famers to see how they fare in a more subjective light. Without further ado:

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Nope. Red was, however, among the top 10 MVP vote getters four times, going as high as third.
2. Was he the best player on his team? Possibly in 1953, where he earned 27 win shares to Musial’s 33, but when your teammates include Slats Marion, a similar player only at shortstop, Stan Musial, and Enos Slaughter you never really get a chance.
3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? During his short prime (1951-1953) he could have been, particularly in 1953, and he was pretty consistently good thereafter.
4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races? He won a World Series title with the 1946 Cardinals, where he earned 19 Win Shares, an all-star caliber year. He then managed the Cards through two more pennant runs in the 1960’s.
5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime? Yes, and he did. He spent several productive years as a backup after it was determined he was no longer a regular.
6. Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame? Far from it.
7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame? There aren’t a lot of players with comparable statistics–by James’ Similarity Scores method, his nearest comp. is Tony Fernandez at 898. There are several HoF and HoF caliber players on his list, but by 900 the players are only vaguely similar. Similar players, like Mazeroski, Evers, Herman and Rabbit Maranville are Hall dwellers.
8. Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards? He’s below average on the hall standards system, but above on the Hall of Fame monitor list, which makes him a marginal candidate who is likely to get in. (Pretty much who he is.)
9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics? As a guy whose primary value was defense, the still primitive statistics may do something to hinder his candidacy. Otherwise, no.
10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame? Nope. Ryne Sandberg and Lou Whitaker are more deserving.
11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close? He had one MVP type year, 1953, where he hit .342. He was close to winning the award, by the voters’ estimation, four times.
12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame? He was an all star 10 years, same as Ryne Sandberg. That seems to be about average, although all-star seasons don’t correlate directly to Hall of Fame worthiness.
13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant? If he played at the top of his game, where he was an all-star caliber player, then yes. The team couldn’t rely utterly on him, and it would likely need two or three players similarly valuable, but it is certainly possible.
14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way? He’s been a part of the game for nearly sixty years, which has to count for something, but nothing specific. He also won two pennants and a world series as a manager.
15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider? I don’t see why not.

Once more, he does okay. Nothing spectacular, but he’s solidly in the good half of the Keltner list. What else does he have going for him? Win Shares has him as an A fielder, for one, one of the top 10 among second basemen. He’s also got pretty good longevity, having spent 14 years as a regular in the lineup. The years he spent hanging on at the end usually hurt a player’s Hall chances, as voters remember the guy playing out the string more vividly than the player in his prime. Since he was elected in 1989, though, that wasn’t much of a concern.

As the Keltner list proves, he seems a fine candidate when you look at his career subjective, but he suffers somewhat when looking through coke-bottle sabermetric glasses. I can definitely see why a group brought up to look at the batting averages, runs scored and the like, where Red excelled, would see him as a Hall of Famer, and he is on the whole not a bad selection, considering the competition for “biggest Hall travesty.”

Sabotaging the St. Louis Cardinals from within. I’ll let this STLCardinals.com quote do the introducing:

Cardinals acquire Womack
Looking to acquire a left-handed utility infielder who can bat leadoff, the Cardinals acquired Tony Womack from the Red Sox for right-handed pitcher Matt Duff on Sunday afternoon.

For the love of Stan Musial, why does this stuff happen? TONY WOMACK, who was worth -1.8 wins last year, according to Baseball Prospectus. TONY WOMACK, whose PECOTA comp is Ozzie Guillen. TONY WOMACK, who is presently a utility infielder who can’t infield, a speedster who was just barely adequate stealing bases, and a guy who would outhit Neifi Perez only if he were wielding an aluminum bat.

I was having a good day! I was just about to go browse through Win Shares at a leisurely pace and watch “The Cosby Show.” And then TONY WOMACK had to go and ruin it. I do not want to say TONY WOMACK again on this blog. As a result, I hereby dub him TFW. The F is obvious–think Bucky F. Dent, Aaron F. Boone, F. The Po-lice.

If Tony Womack makes the team over anyone of note–Bo Hart, Hector Luna, Garth Brooks–expect no further updates from Get Up, Baby! I will have lost the will to live. My suicide note will be Tony Womack’s page in the Cardinals Media Guide.

Why?

Although he receives flak for some free agent signings, when it comes to trades Cardinals GM Walt Jocketty has gained a lot of notoriety for usually coming out well ahead. From the Mark McGwire deal (quick, name the three prospects he was traded for) to the recent Scott Rolen swindling, it’s hard to imagine him doing any better than he has. To see if the evidence backed me up, I decided to compile all-star teams of players acquired and dealt by Jocketty since he became the GM in October of 1994.

ALL ACQUIRED TEAM

SP - Woody Williams - I can’t imagine he saw what really happened coming, but Walt apparently saw him as better than he pitched in the Padres half of 2001, and I suppose he could have thought of him as a Dave Duncan-brand Scrap Heap Project. Can’t argue with the results, though…

SP - Darryl Kile - Acquired from the Rox, he recovered from Coors Fever and won 20 games the very next year. Jose Jimenez was a good closer for the Rockies for three years, but also in the deal for the Cards were Luther Hackman, who was decent, and the much maligned though not that bad Dave Veres. The prospect the Cardinals gave up in the deal was recently rereleased Brent Butler, who never panned out. That’s going to be a theme.

SP - Todd Stottlemyre - Was acquired from the Athletics and was a very solid innings eater/token ace for La Russa’s early teams. The only player of note traded for him was the sometimes-effective Jay Witasick. And when he was no longer necessary, he was packaged up with Royce Clayton and sent to the Rangers for Fernando Tatis, who had a good season and then was packaged up. Recycling isn’t bad at all, although the chain breaks at Esteban Yan (Asadoorian of the Hermanson trade) and Chuck Finley (Luis Garcia from the same.)

SP - Pat Hentgen - Pat’s trade was the middle class man’s Dustin Hermanson deal, without Steve Kline. The former Cy Young winner put up a nice innings-eater year (and was then sent off). A guy whose ERA was 4.72 wouldn’t be a great part of a trade, unless the price to pay was a backup catcher (Alberto Castillo), a prospect who’s done little (Matt DeWitt), and a LOOGY (Lance Painter, though in his native Britain it is spelled LOUGY.)

SP - Dustin Hermanson - Here it is, the slightly wealthier version of the Pat Hentgen deal. The trade was a huge risk when it went down; Tatis was only one injury plagued year removed from a monster season at third, and he was a young third baseman. (How many of those is a team gonna come across?) Tatis turned out a bust and is now trying to regroup in Tampa. His trademate, Britt Reames, hasn’t done anything with his curveball since those great starts at the end of 1999. Dustin provided a solid back of the rotation style season and then was dealt for prospects.

RP - Dennis Eckersley - He wasn’t the Oakland Out Man anymore, but he was still an effective reliever, and he only cost them this guy.

RP - Mike Timlin - Career resuscitation. St. Louis. Tell me if you’ve heard this one before. Best of all, he was a part of the Rolen deal.

RP - Rick White - Yeah, I’m cheating a bit, but signing Rick from the Coors Field Lost-n-Found was an inspired move, and not getting too attached was even better.

RP - Chuck Finley - Okay, so he was a starter. But Coco Crisp and one of the Hermanson prospects definitely paid off, getting the Cardinals an extremely effective starter down the stretch in 2002.

RP - Steve Kline - Who would have thought that the lefty reliever would have come out the most valuable part of a deal that included a pitcher who was once the third pick in the draft and a third baseman who put up an OPS+ of 140 at the age of 24?

CL - Dave Veres - Coming from a guy who hated Dave most of while he was in St. Louis (I always seemed to tune in while his splitter wasn’t working and he was busy blowing a save), I was surprised to really see how effective he was. Manny Aybar, Jose Jimenez and company isn’t a bad price to pay when the second most important player you’re getting is a solid closer. To repay him for hating him while he was pitching while, I’ll have to wish him good luck sticking in Houston.

C - Tom Lampkin - Someone’s gotta fill this space, and getting a serviceable backup backstop for Rene Arocha, who pitched only 10 innings after the deal, isn’t bad at all.

1B - Mark McGwire - For a website called Everything2 (check the sidebar), I used the McGwire trade as an example of using Win Shares to score trades. McGwire earned the Cardinals 109 win shares. Blake Stein, Eric Ludwick, and TJ Matthews, as well as players who came to Oakland as a part of a trade involving one of the three, earned 32. That’s not bad.

2B - Fernando Vina - It’s kind of hard for me to think of the great leadoff hitter he was in 2000 and 2001 instead of the declining player he was in 2002-2003, but that .380 in 2000 is pretty, and he was a gold glover. The price wasn’t bad, either: Juan Acevedo and a minor leaguer.

3B - Scott Rolen - No one could have expected Bud Smith’s arm to explode, but it’s hard to argue trading a pitching prospect, a solid reliever (Timlin), and a good 2B (Polanco) for the best third baseman in the game. Oh, and Doug Nickle.

SS - Edgar Renteria - He’s been up and down, but he has finally ascended to his rightful place among the great shortstops in the game. Braden Looper turned out okay, but has been unable to get lefties out; the others traded are scrubbish.

LF - Mark Sweeney - Someone’s gotta play left, and the Cardinals have had left filled by Gilkey, Gant, Lankford and Pujols, who have either come up through the system or been signed. He’s been a pretty good fourth/fifth outfielder since, and draws some walks.

CF - Jim Edmonds - This deal actually did require giving up a guy who has become a useful player, in Adam Kennedy, so it’s not the Mark McGwire deal redux, but dealing Kennedy and Kent Bottenfield’s fluketastic 1999 for a guy who has since thrown up four hall of fame caliber years in a row borders on sad.

RF - Craig Paquette - See Mark Sweeney. He probably played fewer than 50 games in the outfield, but he’s the best option and I’m determined to fill this out.

And for equal time purposes, the best players the Cardinals have traded AWAY in Jocketty’s tenure. This list doesn’t bode that well for JD Drew, huh?

P - Kent Mercker
P - Juan Acevedo
P - Kent Bottenfield
P - Manny Aybar
P - Mike Matthews
P - Rheal Cormier
P - Braden Looper
P - Sean Lowe
P - John Frascatore
P - Armando Almanza
CL - Jose Jimenez

C - Alberto Castillo
1B - Chris Richard
2B - Adam Kennedy
3B - Todd Zeile
SS - Jack Wilson
OF - Bernard Gilkey
OF - Ron Gant
OF - Dmitri Young

Not as formidable as the other lineup, is it? The sad thing is, I bet they could take the 2003 Tigers. *rimshot* Thanks guys, I’ll be here all week. The biggest season by a departed Cardinal on this list? Bernard Gilkey’s 1996, where he finally fulfilled the potential he had when he roared through the system with Ray Lankford and Todd Zeile, earning 30 win shares. For many, many reasons, some not his fault and some of his own doing, he only had 30 more left in his career.

What to make of this? While guys like John Schuerholz and Billy Beane have great reputations for killing people in trades, Jocketty hasn’t exactly done badly himself. Oh, and “Dan needs to find better uses for his Friday nights than wading through the Baseball Reference Transaction pages for two hours.” Both of those.

(What can I say, my plans fell through.)

The Cardinals’ Birdhouse is reporting that a deal between the Angels and the Cardinals is in the works that would send Darin Erstad, Adam Kennedy, and Jarros Washburn to the Cardinals in exchange for Woody Williams, Bo Hart, and “another player.”

Depending on who the “other player” is, this trade could sound pretty good. Except…

From the site:
“…left-fielder Darin Erstad.”

I’m gonna show you two stat lines here. One is Darin Erstad, “Left Fielder”, in his last healthy season. The other is Orlando Palmeiro, well known offensive juggernaut.

.283  .313  .389.271  .336  .347  

Which one of these looks like a good line for a left fielder? Neither, of course; these are the numbers Kerry Robinson would put up given a Norm Cash year. Put Erstad in Center, where his defense can make up for his offense, and Edmonds in right, where he can stay healthy and use his gun, and it’s a better deal.

Kennedy’s a solid player, although you can’t be sure whether you’re getting the 02 or 03 model; it’s all good, though–he was a solid player both years. It’d be a nice “Prodigal Son” story, too, as he would be returning to the Cardinals after being part of the Great Jim Edmonds Robbery of 2000.

I bet the guys over at the Cards board are gonna take the Hart trade badly if it goes through, though. Adam Kennedy, because he can hit the ball, isn’t the kind of “Scrappy Hustler” guy Bo Hart is renowned as. Also, where would this put Marlon Anderson? Would he be a rich man’s Miguel Cairo at that point?

And now, to fill space, here is my dream roster, provided the trade goes down.

STARTERS (1-5)
Matt Morris: Duh. Morris is coming off of his worst season since returning to the rotation in 2001, and it’s a contract year, so Matty Mo has a lot to prove. He’s still got 20 game winner stuff, and he will as long as he has that curveball.
Jarrod Washburn: Jarrod, 29, turned in a solid 2001 before hitting it big as the ace of the world champs in 2002. 2003 was an off year, as he only managed an ERA 4% below league average, but at the very worst he’s still an effective inning eater. He’s a lefty, too.
Jeff Suppan: Jeff’s 2003 (pre Red Sox trade) was heralded as a breakout season, but it really wasn’t all that much better than his 1999-2001 years. 2002 appears to be the outlier, and he should be quite an upgrade from the Tomko-Stephenson connection.
Chris Carpenter: Who knows. He’s somehow got a bit of a “potential star” aura about him, even though he’s never shown himself to be a lot more than average since his years in the low minors. Not that we saw it last year *rimshot*, but he’s supposed to have an excellent curveball.
Jason Marquis: Aside from an effective 2001, he’s done little to justify the name recognition he gets. He’s got good stuff, he’s young, and he never had a real chance to settle himself in Bobby Cox’s rotation, so he’s pretty much a back of the rotation guy with some upside. Maybe he’ll get a little of the Dave Duncan effect. (The good one, not the Rick Ankiel one.)

LOOGYS (6-7)
Steve Kline: He’s coming off of his worst full season, which was conveniently placed in the middle of a horrific bullpen. His walk rate jumped and his strikeout rate fell, which is never a good sign. PECOTA sees a slow decline.
Ray King: Ladies and Gentlemen, if Marquis and Wainwright never reach their potential this is the J.D. Drew bounty. He’s a LOOGY, he’s consistently effective, and he will stop up the Pedro Borbon/Lance Painter/Jason Pearson sized hole with his considerable girth. Er, lefty-killing.

BULLPEN FOLK (8-10)
Mike Lincoln: He’s been all over the place ERA wise, but the only real peripheral change (besides hits/9, and if you’re a DIPS-er you don’t care about that) in the past three years is a rising strikeout rate. Weird.
Cal Eldred: After that 135.00 ERA I wanted his head, but he turned out to be one of the few stable portions of the Cardinals Bullpen Thrill Ride. I don’t see why he couldn’t do it again.
Julian Tavarez: Groundballs and a solid defense should mean a swingman who’s at least better than Jason Simontacchi. The strikeout rate is ugly even for a groundballer, though.

THE LAW (11)
Jason Isringhausen: One of the best parts of a Cardinals game is to watch Isringhausen when his curveball’s on. It’s got one of the craziest breaks I have ever seen. Other than that, I don’t have much to say here. PLEASE STAY HEALTHY.

LINEUP (12-19)
C Mike Matheny: Well, he’s gonna start, he’s gonna play good defense, he’s not gonna hit well. That’s about it. He was at least better than the last two years.
1B Albert Pujols: Yeah.
2B Adam Kennedy: Adam’s been an effective hitter and a solid defensive player the last two years. Unlike the Cardinals’ second basemen from last year, he’s comfortably above replacement level. That’s pretty exciting, huh?
3B Scott Rolen: He, Chavez, and Blalock are just about it at third base in the league, and Rolen’s consistently been the best offensive player. His defense is likely to rebound from its 2003 low point given a season with fewer nagging injuries.
SS Edgar Renteria: Josh from Go Cardinals has an awesome article up about including stolen bases in OPS. With his adjustments, it makes Edgar a better offensive player than Hank Blalock, not even taking park adjustment into account. With A-Rod at third Renteria’s arguably the best of the major league shortstops, at least if he can keep up his last years’ offensive production.
LF Reggie Sanders: Hey, it’s the ghost of J.D. Drew Future! He puts up good numbers when healthy, but is rarely healthy. He had a great 2003, not that it was easy to notice in Pittsburgh.
CF Darin Erstad: Mike Matheny was superior to Erstad on offense last year. That’s not good. But Erstad’s one of the few players awesome enough on defense that it makes up for his lack of hitting ability. If he’s wasted in left the great sucking sound you hear will be another open wound in the Cardinals, but if Jimmy can stand to move to right he’ll be at least competent.
RF Jim Edmonds: But will he? On one hand, it will keep him healthier AND give him a chance to show off his cannon, which really seemed to get some notice last year. On another, he’s best known for being the kind of Center Fielder that Darin Erstad really is. A full year of the hall of fame numbers he’s been putting up since 2000 is worth moving, in my ever so humble opinion.

BENCH JOCKEYS (20-25)
4th OF Ray Lankford: Lefty bat off the bench, can play center if all else fails (he did a little in 2001, with so-so results.) And best of all he’s not Kerry Robinson. What’s not to like?
UT Marlon Anderson: Can he play short? Otherwise he may have a bad case of Warren Morris syndrome when it comes to sticking as a utility infielder. He can play left, which I guess is valuable, but someone has to back up Edgar.
OF Mark Quinn: At least, this is where I had him before he got hurt. Depending on how much time he’ll miss you can replace him with Kerriso Robinguchi.
C Chris Widger: Unlike Cody McKay he has hit at the major league level in the past… just it was several years ago. He can play third base, too. Theoretically.
SS Hector Luna: He’s not gonna hit a lick, but neither did Wilson Delgado last year, and someone has to play short when Renteria needs a day off. Plus, he’s a Rule 5-er with some potential.
IF Kevin Witt: He played short in the minors, but I’m not gonna be that optimistic. He could play the corners, left, et cetera. He reminds me of Craig Paquette; he hits the ball hard, plays several places, and never walks. Like Craig, he could end up spotting at second in a fit of Tony LaRussa tinkering.

Like I said, I don’t necessarily think that will be the roster, but I’d love if it were.

Steve Cox and Brent Butler are the first contestants on “Wheel of Desperate” to be cut in the LF/2B derbies. Back when they were signed it was assumed that Cox would start at first and Butler at second, but things got better, luckily, so I didn’t have to drink the lighter fluid.

The survivors are:

LF:
Ray Lankford
Emil Brown
Mark Quinn
Colin Porter
Kerry Robinson
So Taguchi
John Mabry

2B:
Bo Hart
Marlon Anderson
Red Schoendienst

FUN FACT OF THE DAY:
37 year old Ray Lankford has stolen as many bases this spring as world-renowned speedster Kerry Robinson. No, the number isn’t zero.

WARNING: I hashed this article together in the last fifteen minutes of a Study Hall at school, so it’s a bit low quality. I’m working on a big old post I hope to have together by Monday about the relative consistency (position-by-position) of the 2003 Cards, renowned for their inconsistency, versus the 2000-2002 division champs. But until then, this will suffice.

As with every team’s Spring Training squad, the current incarnation of the Cardinals has little in common with the team that will take the field opening-day. Has-beens, never-wases, and So Taguchi all take the field each year, in the hope of being that NRI that sticks and contributes, like Cal Eldred was last year. It’s a longshot, usually, but that guy you knew only as “A. Pujols 3B” in Spring Training could turn out to be something special in the summer.

In that vein, then, I have decided to profile some of the NRIs and minor leaguers that are competing for the all important 25th man spot this year, so that when they make the roster you won’t pronounce their name “Pugjles”, as I did when the artist presently known as Phat Albert came north with the squad. (I was disappointed about Bobby Bo, personally.) I avoided the players you’ve likely heard of, like Greg Vaughn and Ray Lankford.

EMIL BROWN, OF, 29: Emil’s been mashing to the tune of .583/.615/1.083 thus far in Spring Training. He showed some promise early and reached the majors at 21 as a Rule V pick by the Pittsburgh Pirates. He showed little, and was sent back to AAA, where he hit well; in fact, Baseball Prospectus 1999 said he had “star potential” but wouldl at the least be a “very good player.”

He’s spent much of his career, in fact, mashing in AAA and then coming up to the majors and hitting for an OPS in the .500’s, and this particular spring doesn’t look much different. You have to give him credit for the start he got on, and he could be a decent fifth outfielder; he has some speed, power, and is an average centerfielder with a good arm. But barring K-Rob’s demotion he looks to be the Mike Coolbaugh award winner for 2004, as a player who destroyed the ball in ST and then failed to make the team. It’s nothing that will kill the team either way.

KEVIN WITT, IF, started life as a power-hitting SS compared to John Valentin by Baseball Prospectus, but then made a slow, painful defensive spectrum career-kill from short to third to left to first base. He lucked out by being in the system of the worst team in a good long while and got significant playing time in Detroit. If he could still play short he’d be useful, and LaRussa’s been known to play people where they no longer belong (or never did; see Paquette, Craig), so he’s got an outside shot at the roster. An interesting question: could he play second? He’d certainly be no worse than the banjo hitters currently fighting for the spot.

SCOTT SEABOL, 3B, is a guy I want to see make the roster just so he can look better for the encyclopedias. Seabol’s major league career currently consists of one at bat, pinch hitting, for the 2001 Yankees. 0 for 1. He had a career year for Memphis in 2003, and if Rolen gets hurt *knock knock knock* I guess he could fill in for a bit without me gouging my eyes out. He won’t come up with the big club, though; he was sent to Memphis a few days ago.

COLIN PORTER, OF, had a job all but sewn up, as he got a lot of buzz heading into the year. But while he may run like Mays, he hits like… well, watch Major League. He had a huge year in the minors last year, but has never approached it before and is 28, so he’ll likely never do it again. He’s a similar player to Emil Brown, but without the huge spring he’s got less of a chance to make the squad.

DOUG CREEK, LHP, whom I’m sure you’re all familiar with from his six games with the Cardinals in 1995. He’s a generic LOOGY, so if all other LOOGYs fail he’ll get a chance, which he’ll hopefully run with better than Pedro “Try to forget” Borbon did last year.

JASON RYAN, SP, 28, has been successful in Spring Training and was, I believe, the ERA champ in AAA last year. He’s got a chance to be anything from Jason Simontacchi to Travis Smith, another minors ERA champ. I wouldn’t get too excited about either, but the guys at the Cardinals Birdhouse (check the links section) know more about him than I do and they’re pretty high on him. Hey, why not?

HECTOR LUNA, SS, 22, was the Cards’ Rule V pick courtesy of the Cleveland Indians. He’s a SS who hasn’t shown any secondary hitting skills but has hit for a high average very young. He’s got an interesting list of PECOTA comparable players, ranging from good players you’ve heard of like Tony Batista, Dave Concepcion, Jay Bell, Frank White, and Mark Belanger to… uh, Tom Upton. He might be worth hanging on to if possible, if for nothing else than to try and drive Renteria’s price down, but for a team that looks to be a bit shallow as is carrying a guy who’s projected to be around replacement level with the stick might be difficult. But then, Wilson Delgado and Miguel Cairo found jobs and they hit as well as Luna while utterly lacking in potential.

Just watch, though; the minor leaguers I don’t mention will be the ones that make the club and excel. Josh Pearce will pitch 250 innings and win 24 games, Cody McKay will channel Mike Piazza, and Matt Pagnozzi will… hit ok and play great defense and then get hurt, just like dear old Uncle Tom. Now that would be a time where it wouldn’t be so bad to be wrong.

The local Cards beat writer (Hal Pilger of the State Journal-Register) had this to say about Ray the K (it’s a good nickname, even though it’s derrogatory; were it the thirties, he’d have gotten something cool like the California Cannonball or the Modesto Masher.):

RAY OF HOPE
Veteran outfielder Ray Lankford enhanced his bid to rejoin the Cardinals after a year out of baseball, stroking two hits after getting robbed of one by 1B Jason Phillips. Lankford also stole second and took third on a Piazza throwing error.
“The Best thing about Ray, I thought, was his legs,” La Russa said. “The way he ran, that’s Ray of four or five years ago. You can tell he’s feeling good, and his legs had a lot of life. And when his legs have good life, everything else falls into place.”
Except for the foul ball that tagged Lankford’s black Hummer, parked near the team bus. It made only a small mark on a door.

Sounds promising. Lankford, by the way, went 1-3 in the Cards’ ten inning victory today. Quick roundup: Calero, Kline, and Allen Levrault combined for four perfect innings. Carpenter allowed a run in two innings, Haren one in three on a Jack Cust homer. Mark Quinn hit a walk-off, pinch-hit shot to end it. Thanks to Josh at Go Cardinals for reminding me there was a game with his roundup.

Walt Jocketty, it appears, knew he had to get a left fielder heading into 2004; but rather than getting one good one, he settled on getting 30-40 marginal ones. Minor league free agents, players making comebacks, people named “Emil”; Jocketty left no stone unturned in his quest to have more left fielders than any team in baseball.

Alphabetically, we’ve got:
Emil Brown
Steve Cox
Ray Lankford
John Mabry
Colin Porter
Kerry Robinson
Mark Quinn
Greg Vaughn

Emil Brown has gotten some attention by hitting well in the early going in spring this year. Spring Training stats, of course, must be taken with a grain of salt; Mike Matheny stole a base just two games earlier. Emil’s a minor league vet at 29, who spent last year with the Reds. he’s got some speed and is actually a center fielder. PECOTA projects him around replacement level, and his prior majors experience is far from promising; in 2001 he was given 123 at bats in Pittsburgh, where he hit .200.

Steve Cox has some major league experience, but mainly as a first baseman; he’s one of the “Ken Phelps All-Star” players Baseball Prospectus used to like to hype as a guy who could do a lot given the chance, but when finally given a chance he blew it, hitting at a .727 OPS in 2002, his “27″ season. He was going to try the Cecil Fielder route back to the majors, and went to the Yokohama Bay Stars following ‘02, but spent much of the year rehabbing his knee. PECOTA gives him a 90% chance of hitting below replacement level. Oof.

My man Ray Lankford is next; I am, of course, partial to my favorite player, who is trying to make a comeback at the age of 38, but even disregarding that I think he could be the key to their problems. In 2001, his last fully healthy year, he put up an OPS vs. righties in the .880’s. Even if you drop that down to the low .800’s he’s still a valuable platoon player, maybe with Mark Quinn. Also, he’s a Cardinal from way back who deserves to join the Cards’ hall of famers in the bowling museum across the street, which has to count for something when you’re competing with Emil Brown or Colin Porter. Weird split of the day: In 2001, Lankford, who spent much of the year being booed in St. Louis, hit .281 on the road and only .221 at home.

John Mabry’s another ghost of Cardinals’ past, but a longshot to make the roster as a starter; he fell back to earth last year after mashing in 2002 with Oakland, and will likely make the team only if LaRussa wants the versatility Mabry, who can fill in at the corner infield spots as well as playing left and right, provides.

Colin Porter’s the flavor of the week on the official message boards, with supporters getting way too excited over his AAA numbers last year and then detractors getting way too concerned about his cup of coffee in the majors, which saw him strike out 17 times in 32 at bats. I think the problem is that people don’t realize fluke years happen in the minors as well as the majors, and as far as fluke years go Colin’s the Norm Cash of the New Orleans Zephyrs(!). Take a look at this:

AVG  OBP  SLG.237 .318 .356.265 .331 .390.320 .365 .511 	

Which one of these is not like the others? Porter did do some mashing last year, but it was his third trip through the hitter-friendly PCL and he was 27. He’s a pretty good bet to fall back to earth, and is basically a marginally wealthier man’s Emil Brown.

K-Rob I’ve already talked about, though he has vowed to start walking more and drew two in a spring training game earlier this week. Stranger things have happened, I guess. Not MUCH stranger, but stranger.

Mighty Mark Quinn is my optimal platoon partner for Lankford, but is also world-renowned as a little bit of a headcase. BP2003 claimed he had a “.900 OPS waiting to be unleashed”, which is probably a bit much, but if Mitchell Page can work a bit on his plate discipline he’s got a chance to start raking again; he made some improvements in the Padres’ minor league system last year.

Would it be possible to strike out more often than a Greg Vaughn/Ray Lankford platoon? Holy cow, that would be hard to watch. Vaughn is a far, far, far cry from the 50 homer model, and is probably two far cries away from the average left fielder that graced the Devil Rays before his 2002 meltdown, but I guess he’s still got a shot to come back. He three true outcomed his way through a 2003 stint with colorado; three of his 7 hits were homers, three more were doubles, and more than half of the times he reached base it was on a walk. final stats? .189 .326 .514. Wow.

Oh, and So Taguchi. But seriously, he’s So Taguchi. Figure it out.