With an ownership seemingly more focused on marketing the Cool! New! Ballpark! than putting together a team able to dominate a fortuitously weak division, reinforcements over the next several years are going to have to come from a gradually rebuilding farm club. If Jock is ever going to get the chance to pursue another big-ticket, high-reward free agent, the Cardinals will need to keep a stock of major league starters coming through the system on the cheap. MLB.com, apparently having the same idea in mind, though understandably less angry about it, recently profiled Cody Haerther and Nick Stavinoha.

Neither was projected as an impact bat, but coming into the season no names were more bandied about when it came to potential regulars in the near future. Both were similar players; Haerther, a sixth rounder out of high school in 2002, debuted in 2003 and had little trouble with rookie ball, hitting .332/.390/.478 with solid plate discipline. He had an unspectacular season in 2004, hitting .316 in the Midwest League but without power; Baseball America ranked him as the ninth best prospect in the system anyway, based largely on his unobscured route to the major leagues.

In 2005, the 22-year-old Haerther was assigned to high-A and dominated it out of the gate, hitting .318/.380/.584 with 23 extra-base-hits in 173 at-bats. Promoted to AA Springfield, he continued to hit–.298/.333/.500–but his plate discipline suffered. After putting up a solid 71:120 BB:K ratio in the low minors, he struck out 44 times to only nine walks in AA.

Returning to AA to start the season, Haerther’s stock was at an all-time high; with the Mediocrity Club holding down left field and no long-term candidate in sight, it was conceivable that he could spend the end of 2006 in St. Louis. In the early going he was up-and-down, slumping badly to start the season before surging at the end of April. Through one month he was hitting .284/.326/.506, similar to the end of 2005 except his BB:K rate had returned to its usual levels. And then he collapsed.

Stavinoha, though a year older than Haerther, had a much shorter road to Springfield. Old even for a college player, he fell to the seventh round in 2005 despite starring at LSU. 23 years old, he signed quickly and joined low-A Quad Cities. No Cardinals pick debuted higher, but even full season ball wasn’t competitive enough. After hitting .370/.408/.677 in college he scrapped the Midwest League without missing a beat, going .344/.398/.564 and striking out in just ten percent of his at-bats. The same age questions that sent him spiralling down in the draft dogged him as a prospect, but he seemed a lock to have continued success in the high minors.

Like Haerther, he looked pretty good over the first month of the season, hitting .324/.347/.479 in April. But warning signs were already there: after his 23:25 BB:K ratio in low A, he walked twice and struck out eighteen times in his first month in the high minors. Just before May began, he suffered what was supposed to be a minor ankle injury; he sat out for longer than expected, and when he came back his numbers collapsed.

Haerther, according to the MLB.com articles, was suffering from self-doubt and bad technique, and it shows:

        AB   H  2B  3B  HR  BB   BA   OBP   SLG
April   81  23   7   1   3   5 .284  .326  .506
May     70  15   4   1   2  10 .214  .309  .386
June    63  12   2   1   0   0 .190  .190  .254
July   100  32   8   0   5   7 .320  .361  .550
August  32  11   2   0   1   2 .344  .382  .500

In May his approach was the same–his walk and power numbers are similar to his successful April, his batting average is just lower. If we can assume that that’s when the crisis in confidence began, and it makes sense, it resulted in one of the worst months a professional baseball player could possibly had. Pressing, Haerther managed to do nothing right; he didn’t walk a single time all month, his batting average stayed low, and his power disappeared. An unequivocal disaster of a month.

In July Terry Evans (of Jeff Weaver fame), promoted to AA, apparently noticed how hard he was trying, and the ways in which he was pressing. Buoyed by those fixes and the resulting boost in confidence, Haerther’s continued to show his customary high batting average and solid plate discipline.

Stavinoha, meanwhile, was never able to get back on track after that minor ankle injury.

        AB   H  2B  3B  HR  BB   BA   OBP   SLG
April   71  23   5   0   2   2 .324  .347  .479
May     61  11   2   0   1   3 .180  .224  .262
June    71  19   1   0   1   3 .268  .297  .324
July    89  26   8   0   1   6 .292  .330  .416
August  47  17   3   1   5   6 .362  .426  .787

Perhaps more disheartening than his May disintegration was his June, when he got his batting average up but displayed no power or plate discipline. In July he began hitting doubles again, and in August–well, you can see what he’s done in August.

Neither one is a sure thing, but having two of them leaves the Cardinals with a pretty good shot that one will turn into a league-average outfielder. And if that happens, they won’t have to pay another Juan Encarnacion to do the job.

Also in the minor leagues: Junior Spivey homered again; that brings his August total to six, and his line to .277/.346/.745. Commenter Whopperman, who follows Memphis more closely than I do, had some great observations:

He hit another one tonight — well over 400 feet, landed off the stadium property.

Here’s my take, from having been at somewhere around 45 games in Memphis to this point this year. Spivey, until about two weeks ago, was still pouting over not getting the 2B job out of spring training. You could see it in his body language, he was just plain lazy out there. He didn’t care, and he didn’t care who realized it. If he couldn’t get to a ball in two steps, he watched it go into center or right. He didn’t run out much of anything. He took his nameplate down on autograph day so people wouldn’t see him, he was very obviously just trying to get the season over with.

But something changed a couple of weeks ago. I don’t know if it was his suspension for blatantly ignoring a sign and getting in a fight with Danny Sheaffer about it or what, but he’s looked like a completely different player. He’s making big plays in the field, he’s stroking the ball at the plate, he’s high-fiving other people who make plays in the field…

If Spivey had the same attitude in April, he would have been the everyday second baseman by May 1. As it is, I say file it under better late than never and see if he can help…if he causes problems, banish him. The talent’s still been there all along, IMO.

In Palm Beach, Colby Rasmus–perhaps the only true impact bat in the system–also homered. As he’s done in every league, he started off his time in the high-A FSL slowly; he hit .214/.309/.372 in July. But over the last several days, he’s really turned it on; he’s 10 for his last 17, and in August he’s hitting .353/.441/.451.

So–there’s an update on the names you could be cursing this time in 2008. The idea of having three outfield prospects is pretty novel, I must say.

Really, I do plan on posting something informative every day or so, but between the boringness with which the Cardinals were dispatched by a terrible club–basically I’m just perplexed that La Russa feels a need to platoon Edmonds strictly, out of all the players on the team–and having just today gotten back from what is rapidly becoming an annual Cousin’s Wedding at one of the far corners of the earth to which the Moore family has dispersed, I’m fresh out of Insight and Wit. Thanks to erstwhile Get Up, Baby! favorite Junior Spivey, however, there is something good to say.

We know the story; Spivey was signed, I gushed about him, he sucked in Spring Training, sucked in AAA, and sucked it up and got suspended following a run-in with the manager. He came back heading into August, whereupon he’s turned into Albert Pujols. After going 3-5 with a double and a home run on Sunday, his pre/post August numbers look like this:

                AB    H   2B  3B  HR  BB   BA   OBP   SLG
Old & Busted   212   38    8   2   3  34 .179  .310  .278
New Hotness     43   12    4   0   5   5 .279  .354  .721

While it was kind of Spivey to see exactly how far down below the Mendoza line one can maintain a .300 OBP–he did it, no doubt, in the name of science, or the grand tradition of an athlete playing through an injury for no reason–I like the one with five home runs better. Obviously he’s not going to keep this up, but a Junior Spivey playing a little below his career averages is still an upgrade on Aaron Miles; given his defensive prowess, there’s a nonzero chance he would be an upgrade on Ronnie Belliard, until a body part gave out again.

The Cardinals will probably wait until the rosters expand–if they even bother–to take a chance on Spivey, but when a team is struggling to find consistency as the Cardinals are I would take any chance I was given to improve the team, even marginally; if you buy WPA, one hit or botched play can be the play on which a game pivots, and one vague degree of difference in personnel can buy you that hit or that play. The flapping of a butterfly’s wings, et cetera et cetera, only I can’t fake Jeff Goldblum’s voice and Samuel L. Jackson isn’t going to lose an arm in the middle of the game.

Or Spivey could just be lucking out, or having a bizarre end-of-career second wind a la Andy Benes; but that’s not as fun, right? And after a sweep at the hands of a squad whose ownerships’ intentions make Bill DeWitt’s look positively George Bailey-esque, fun is hard to find. So, say it with me, every announcer ever: what has Spivey the potential to be?

“It’s like a deadline deal, right there.”

Much better. I’d hate to take on that contract, though, what were they thinking? Just indefensible.

Really?

 At this point I’m so used to the 2006 Cardinals going on ridiculous streaks, good and bad, that their vivisection at the hands of the Pirates leaves me more surprised than angry. Teams can win a game and then lose a game, just like that? I’m intrigued by this concept. In any case, Cincy lost, too, so in the major leagues things remain the very uninteresting status quo.

 In Memphis news, a former major leaguer had a great night on the road to recovery from a lingering arm injury.

 And it was Junior Spivey. Well, crap.

Mulder’s results in a rehab start are of limited importance to me; the key is that he was throwing 88-90 on the gun, which he hasn’t done since late May. One other thing he needs to work on is his post-game interview:

“When you are rehabbing, you can’t look at results,” Mulder said. “The only thing I am frustrated with is my command.”

You can’t look at results, sure, but command? This is slightly more important. Leach mentions later on in the mothership piece that the only reason he would have another rehab start is to sharpen his mechanics, I guess implying that he wouldn’t have another rehab start because he really digs the Memphis sound, or because they’re worried his arm will fly off and hit the backstop (going 85 mph down the middle, naturally.) It seems like, if you need to sharpen your mechanics and you’re in a close playoff race and you have two pitchers fighting the battle of who could suck less it would make sense to take the rehab start and take another trip through the rotation to see if Weaver is for real. But if they’re convinced the problem was just one of coming out of his arm slot–anybody who watched the game on MILB.TV is encouraged to comment as to whether or not they noticed that–a healthy, hard-throwing Mulder would actually fulfill the time-honored cliche of “That’s your deadline deal, right there.”

And regardless of whether or not that happens–hey, Junior Spivey’s inexplicable August power run rolls on… that’s cool, right? He’s now hitting .257/.350/.686, with three doubles and four home runs. Did he adopt the Jeromy Burnitz corkscrew-uppercut method or something? I’ll tell you what–if Spivey comes up when the rosters expand and starts crushing home runs in some ritual Rob Deer impersonation, this whole, crushingly inconsistent season will be worth it.

Admittedly, the vast majority of people who did not think it wise to spend $5 to see a Weird Al vehicle (UHF) have no idea why the constant Weava/Red Snappah jokes are at all amusing, but I really have to hand it to whoever made the connection in the VEB comments way back when: this post is dedicated to you, and whoever tracks the initial post down and corrects me about it.

It’s also dedicated to Jeff Weaver, who finally justified my faith in him as somebody who isn’t better suited as a target or an extra in Deliverance than a major league pitcher. This is the Weaver I wanted to see–the one who was occasionally outstanding in Detroit, as opposed to average in Los Angeles. In 2005, Weaver’s peripherals shifted completely. (I talked about it in a little more depth back when he was acquired.) He shaved a walk off of his nine inning rate, becoming–believe it or not–a control artist, but his preternaturally low home run rate, which was once his calling card, suffered as a result.

Yes, he did allow a home run, but it was more the approach that I liked to see: he went right after hitters, and when he had them deep into a count he was aware he had one thing most Cardinals starters lack: an out pitch. He ran his tailing fastball–which was clocked as high as 93, significantly higher than I saw in his last start–up at hitters’ eyes, or away from left-handers, and he kept his slider in and around the dirt. Obviously there are some control issues to be worked out, but it was an extremely encouraging sign for a Cardinals rotation that’s still lacking in game-changing starters.

In minor league news, Junior Spivey went 3-6 with a double in Memphis’s heartbreaking 17-16 loss, improving his batting average… to .187. Sure, he’s become a running joke instead of the starting second baseman, but recently his bat has shown signs of life; in August he’s hitting a bizarre .241/.313/.621, with two doubles, three home runs… and seven hits altogether. If he continues to hit at all, and the Cardinals have a more-than-razor-thin edge heading into September, would it be a terrible idea to call him up to the bigs when the rosters expand and see what he could do in a reserve role? I remain convinced that players don’t lose that much ability over the course of one season, and if he was hiding an injury the five extra-base-hits in as many days would seem to suggest that it’s healed.

And finally, it’s not as if we’re lacking in fringe low-level pitching prospects to follow, but add another to the list: 2005 high school pick Tyler Herron finally appears to be delivering on a little of his promise, after a year and a half of ugly performances. In his debut last season, Herron struck out a batter an inning but provided nothing else: he walked nearly five batters per nine, and he allowed eleven home runs in fifty innings. It was a disaster mitigated only by his age: 18, by baseball standards.

Baseball America still ranked him among the top Cardinals prospects, largely on future projectability, but even those prospect mavens figured he’d make it to low-A this year. Instead he spent the first half of the year in extended spring training, and was reassigned to Johnson City when the short season rolled around. And things looked… the same. In his first outing he was bombed for seven earned runs in three innings. But since then, he’s been about what you’d expect out of a first rounder in rookie ball: on the back of his three game winning streak, he’s lowered his ERA to 3.96. He’s a long way off, but he’s definitely one of the most intriguing players to watch in 2007.

Wow, people had Luis Ordaz stories? Who knew?

Sorry for the lack of a post yesterday; since it was minor league opening day, I’ve been scrambling to get my Coming Attractions spreadsheets totally ready. It looks like month-by-month splits for everybody, and lefty-righty for AAA, unless I find an easier way to do them. The depth chart will be updated with Actual Rosters™ soon after I write this, and the player pages will be up by next friday. (Note: the starting rotations are guesses, particularly in the lowest minors, where I didn’t even know who the starters were.)

Lots of interesting stuff happened in the minors. Junior Spivey–you can rest assured I’ll be following him a lot–went 2-4 with a double, two walks, and a strikeout in the Redbirds’ extra-inning loss to Oklahoma. Pretty nice debut. Other AAA notables: Chris Duncan hit 3-6 with two strikeouts; Anthony Reyes, probably more nonplussed than the usual opening day starter, went six innings, allowing nine hits and four runs (three earned.) He struck out three and walked nobody, and–I’m sure Tony and Co. noticed this: had an 11:3 groundout-flyout ratio. In AA Springfield, 2005 draftee Nic Stavinoha went 2-3 with a walk in his high-minors debut. Reid Gorecki went 2-5 with a double and a triple, and Cody Haerther went 1-5 with a double, but starter Jordan Pals had the misfortune of pitching to Brandon Wood, the shortstop who hit 51 doubles and 43 home runs in A ball last year. He very quickly adapted in his AA debut, hitting a two-run shot in his second at-bat.

The player of the day in the system was first baseman/colossal bust Mike Ferris. Considered a big steal and a polished college power bat after the Cards nabbed him in the second round of the 2004 draft, he proceeded to hit .199/.295/.295 in his first pro turn, with the short-season New Jersey Cardinals. Nevertheless, good things were still expected out of him as 2005 began with him manning first in low-A ball. Instead, they got a line of .230/.334/.399, with 16 home runs in 439 at-bats. He turned it on a bit as the season drew to a close, so maybe his third time through the low minors will be the charm. He certainly started off right, going 2-5 with two home runs for Palm Beach. 2005 first rounder Tyler Greene went 2-4.

Not a lot to report out of low-A Quad Cities’ 6-3 loss. The first of the 2005 first rounders, Colby Rasmus, went 0-4 but did throw out a baserunner at home; Randy Roth, an otherwise-uninteresting 10th round college 3B from last year’s draft, got my attention when he slugged .630 in the Appy League. He scuffled soon after in short-season A ball, but he won the Quad Cities job anyway and went 1-4.

So, about the majors. I was hoping to see control-freak Marquis, from the last half of 2005, but he instead decided to go with quintessential Marquis to start the year. He struggled in the sixth inning, he smacked a double to provide himself some run support… I didn’t get the chance to watch the game, thanks to school obligations, but I’m sure he did some jumping around on the mound when good things happened. It’s sad to see Albert’s home run rate projection slip all the way down to 162, but maybe somebody else will be able to pick up the slack. Meanwhile, this confirms it: Jason Isringhausen is out to screw with our heads. After his Hitchcockian game two save, VEB, The Birdwatch, and bellyitcher all bemoaned his daredevil streak. (On that note, I highly approve of Rob’s “Baron von Isringhausen” nickname.) So, naturally–because he lives to keep us as confused as possible–he comes in with the sweep on the line and mows the Phillies down. Seeing as he’s already got the most gutwrenching 2.14 ERA since time began in the books, maybe he’ll elect for something a little smoother this time?

about the Cardinals’ recent decision to run their best 2B option out of town, but, but–the sheer fact that there will be a genuine box score in the newspaper tomorrow makes me unable to rant about it. For the moment.

Watching the Gamecast on ESPN.com, it also pleased me to see that young White Sox outfielder Brian Anderson is known as “B. N. Anderson” in shortened form. If he is not nicknamed Bananderson by the end of the season, I will consider it a personal insult.

Also: the current Google ad, as I type this, is for a free Reds jersey survey–Tony Womack! I bet they’re flying off the shelves. Or shelf. If I were you, I’d get in on the ground floor.

Having had a mediocre day yesterday, I admit, that last post might have been harsh. Not in terms of content–Aaron Miles just isn’t an adequate major league ballplayer–but in terms of execution. So here, cold numbers-wise, is why I would rather Spivey be the starting second baseman. By EQA (.260 is pretty much average; it takes most offensive contributions, including stolen bases into account; and obviously average is lower for 2B), and not counting the fluke season, here are the seasons of their careers:

Luna, 2005: .270
Spivey, 2004: .269
Spivey, 2003: .253
Spivey, 2005: (.241 with Brewers, .265 with Nats)
Luna, 2004: .236
Miles, 2004: .233
Miles, 2005: .224

Unless you seriously think that 100 at-bats–total, between the two of them–during spring training have shown a new talent level, there is no defensible way to look at this move, because over their careers Miles is an awful hitter, Spivey is–at worst–an adequate one. Since I think Spring Training stats are about as predictive as those quarter-a-pop fortune telling machines, I’m just stunned that people are ready to waive Spivey based on a bad spring training.

I don’t normally post on the weekends, but–ugh.

“Miles started today. And I’m going to play him tomorrow,” La Russa said. “Is he going to start opening day? If opening day was tomorrow, he would be the starter… He’s been a good player. He takes good at-bats. He’s caught the ball well to his left and right. He starts double plays,” La Russa said.

Look, Tony. I like you. You’re a great manager, an underrated one, even, ever since people took to pulling, at every opportunity, the Billy-Beane-wrote-Moneyball-esque fallacy that you, rather than George F. Will, fancy yourself a genius. But would you like to know how many major league second basemen catch the ball well and start double plays?

All of them. That’s what they do! Carlos Baerga, even after having eaten Mo Vaughn, can catch the ball well. My younger brother is currently the starting second baseman for his varsity team, and let me tell you–kid knows how to catch the ball. Takes good at-bats, too; works the count like he’s Ted Williams out there. Want to sign him? Tell you what, I’ll draw up the papers today and I’ll practice going to my left and to my right with him later tonight, in case you need a backup. What you have to worry about, Tony, is that Aaron Miles–unlike my younger brother–couldn’t hit my wiffle curveball out of the backyard. Good at-bats are the ones that end in a runner on base, not a scrappy mchustler walking back to the dugout having fouled three pitches off and grounded a ball to–surprise!–a second baseman who catches the ball well. Maybe he’ll even start a double play!

Now, sitting on the bench opening day will be–at the very least–two second basemen who are better hitters than Aaron Miles. When Jose Oquendo isn’t coaching third base, there will be three, and over in Memphis Travis Hanson will be taking ground balls so he can be number four. Miles’s career numbers–having spent the whole, gloriously mediocre shebang in Coors Field–are .289/.320/.366. If he puts those numbers up, it will be a successful season for him… and he still won’t be very good. Junior Spivey–injured most of 2005–put up career lows of .232/.315/.378 last year. Now, I realize he’s had a bad spring training, but let’s not be really dumb here.

Remember Gabe Gross, Tony? Just last year–he hit .385/.468/.904 in spring training for the Blue Jays. 8 home runs in 52 at-bats. The Blue Jays, not being really dumb about the whole thing, sent him to AAA anyway, where he hit… 6 homers the whole year. Or there was this pitcher. He was coming off of an injury, really detrimental one, but he had a sort of semi-hold on a rotation spot. So he went to Spring Training, and he sucked. 8.00 ERA, 7 strikeouts and 5 walks in 18 innings. But the team gave him a spot anyway, and he went 15-5. Then, in 2005, he turned it all the way up and won a Cy Young. I’m not saying Junior Spivey is going to win any silver sluggers, but even last year, he’s Top-of-Potential Miles’s equal as a hitter. Not only that, but by most measures he’s a better fielder.

I’m not worried about this too much, Tony, because aside from a few Mike Gallego-sized blind spots you’re a solid evaluator of talent. Once you see that Junior Spivey isn’t going to hit .150 in the regular season, and that Aaron Miles isn’t as good as David Eckstein just because they resemble one-another with their caps pulled down low enough, I’m hoping you’ll make the switch.

Your Pal,
Daniel.
P.S.: You screwed Ray Lankford over twice, too, don’t think I’m not still mad about that.
P.P.S.: I loved your baseball game on the Genesis.

Latest on the He’s-Gonna-Die bandwagon is Dave Pinto, who notes Spivey’s ever-rising strikeout rate. I’ve been hardline pro-Spivey all along, so this isn’t going to surprise anybody, but I’m pretty sure that rumors of his inability to hit are greatly exaggerated.

The narrative begins with his fluke 2002, in which he hit .301 and struck out in 18.6% of his at-bats. Now, that his K rate was lower and his batting average higher than his minor league career totals should have set off warning bells, and they did. So when he hit .255/.326/.433 in his second major league go around, striking out in 26% of his at-bats, it was no great shock; he was now a decent hitter, but with his very good defense still valuable as a starter.

In 2004 he was part of the Great Arizona Exodus to Milwaukee in exchange for 90 at-bats of Richie Sexson. That year he hit a very solid .272/.359/.421 before requiring surgery on his left shoulder and missing the second half of the season. In 228 at-bats, he struck out 21% of the time.

In 2005–coming back from shoulder surgery–he started off just awful, striking out in more than 32% of his at-bats and failing to keep his OBP over .300. He improved a little in May, and then hit .263/.371/.461 with a low K rate in June. In July… he went 1-18 with 12 strikeouts and a double, and then a freak wrist injury ended his season.

Now, those are the numbers. And while Pinto’s contention that it’s been “downhill ever since” his fluke 2002 is a little disingenuous–he hit better and struck out less in 2004 than he did in 2003, so really it’s been downhill between 2004 and 2005 and this spring training–the strikeout rate jump in 2005 is pretty ominous, especially if you think he should’ve been fully recovered from the shoulder problems by that point.

But to take these Spring Training at-bats–42 of them–and extrapolate from them the end stages of a trend toward huge strikeout rates is just nuts. Need I remind you of Molina’s .162 start over 68 at-bats? His strikeout rate wasn’t high, because it never is, but he had 26 more at-bats in which to turn things around.

My prediction, based solely on guessing: unless the shoulder injury crops up again, he’ll hit like he did in 2003 and 2004. No reason, per se; I just think people are playing up this strikeout “trend” for much more than it’s worth, seeing as the downward spiral consists of a grand total of 300-ish at-bats, 40 of which have been spent in Spring Training.

On the other hand, the continued worrying about his platoon split is justifiable; it’s big, and it always has been. The problem is that lefty-hitting second basemen don’t grow on trees. (It would be nice if Todd Walker was not-wanted somewhere besides Chicago, wouldn’t it?) Derrick Goold notes that Aaron Miles was a lefty before he took up switch hitting, and he does hit better against right-handed pitchers… but unfortunately “better” is an OPS of .697 in Coors Field; Spivey has managed only .669 against righties since his big 2002, so it would be an improvement, but if I were to institute a platoon I would want a more solid gain than that. Recently waived Bobby Hill has a lower OPS, but over the last three years his OBP vs. right-handers is .340, which could be useful.

Of course, if the Cardinals want to fix the problem in-house, their #7 prospect, as per Baseball America, just so happens to be a left-handed-hitting second baseman by the name of Travis Hanson. In AA last year he hit .284/.347/.458 against everybody; no splits data, obviously, but it’s safe to assume he was better against righties. Perhaps because of the age at which he hit AA last year–24–PECOTA isn’t a big fan, projecting him to go only .249/.303/.386. But if he lights up AAA for a month or two this year, or even just keeps his gains made in AA, don’t be surprised–or exasperated–to see him in the big end of a 2B platoon.

The latest son to make a splash in St. Louis is Ed Spiezio’s kid, but let us first turn our attention first to the Cardinals’ Junior Senior, 2B Ernest Lee Spivey. Response to the move has been… well, oddly indifferent. Most of it centers around his injury history; Ray Mileur of the Birdhouse compares his at-bat total to JD Drew’s, which is apparently an insult although I’d certainly take 300 at-bats of all-star caliber hitting and defense, provided the Cardinals fill the space with Hector Luna instead of, say, anybody else.

File photo: Anybody Else dodges a baserunner to turn a double play.

But let’s keep in mind who the Cardinals have used to fill this space for the last three years. Coming into 2005, the Cardinals picked up Mark Grudzielanek; in hindsight, I panned the deal unfairly, because I was basing his defensive reputation on his spotty work at shortstop and I think subconsciously expressing my fear of spelling his name every day for a full season. In 2004, the odds-on favorite going in was Marlon Anderson until TONY WOMACK swooped in. And in 2003, the Cardinals trotted out incumbent Fernando Viña (recently sighted by U.S.S. Mariner) for one last campaign. Let’s see how Spivey compares to the other… workmanlike players brought in by management in the past. Starting with our good friend, Fernando.

It’s funny to think about, now, but because of the big part he played in the Cardinals turn-of-the-century post-McGwire resurgence, Viña was often thought of as part of the team “nucleus”, right up there with that Pujols kid and Jim Edmonds. (Although, even then, those brave pioneer Cardsbloggers were not pleased. Mike of The Daily Redbird(!) opined, coming up on three years ago, that he was no longer suited for the leadoff spot.) In any case, coming up on 2003 he had no reason at all to worry about job security; he was pretty well entrenched, and he even had sweet, sweet free agency on the horizon. His last three years had seen the second baseman, going on 34, in a marked decline that accelerated in 2002 (games and BA/OBP/SLG):

123 .300  .380  .398
154 .303  .357  .418
150 .270  .333  .338

By 2002, his once-sterling OBP had become league average, and his total lack of power suddenly became noticeable. Nevertheless, he had played 304 games over the two seasons leading up to ‘03, and there was no reason, save a Tatis-forged pessimism, to assume that he was going to do what he did: get hurt, suck it up over 61 games and get Wally Pipp’d by a career minor leaguer with cool hair. Depending on how legit his defense was, his decline and age concerns are offset by his perceived durability, and he’s pretty much as safe a bet as Spivey ‘06.

So, fast forward through 2003: Nando takes a ridiculous contract from Detroit, Miggy Cairo leaves out the back way, and the devil finds a loophole in Bo Hart’s contract. Walt Jocketty deals with it by first signing Marlon Anderson, a decent hitter with defensive issues. Deciding that wasn’t enough, he and La Russa get hopped up on life and hard liquor and, amidst a hard-fought game of Triple Play 97, perhaps, decide that the thing that ill-fated 2003 club was lacking, the one missing piece–was Tony Womack. (This led to quite possibly my favorite Cardsblog moment ever, in which Josh, now of the Birdwatch, guessed at their conversation:)

Jocketty is quoted as saying they’ve been talking about Womack all summer, and when I read that I imagined Tony and Walt in a room with a giant hookah blazed out of their skulls:

Tony: Wouldn’t it be cool to watch him run around? He’s so fast? Zip Zip Zip!
Walt: Like a water bug.
Tony: Waterbugs are cool, you know what would be cool? Fill the stadium with water get water bugs to play all your positions. The other team would have to swim, we’d win all 162 games.
Walt: Yeah, we should totally sign him.
Tony: Is there a rule against filling your stadium with water?
Walt: We’ll be invincible. Is Aquaman a free agent?

So we can thank Womack for that, and for his eventual inexplicable career year, but going into Spring Training this is what the Cardinals brought around to challenge Bo Hart:

147 .293  .337  .421  |  125 .266  .307  .345
145 .258  .315  .380  |  153 .271  .325  .353
145 .270  .328  .376  |  103 .226  .251  .307

… wow. Keep in mind, also, that both players dealt with defense on a strictly hypothetical basis, and it’s pretty obvious that the Cardinals have dealt with the keystone much better than they did in 2004. Even if Spivey misses most of the year, Hector Luna is almost certain to outplay both of these guys. Combined.

Ah, but 2005–here’s the rub. Grudzielanek, the name to end all names. He struggled mightily when with Los Angeles in 2001 and 2002, but his stint with the Cubs was solid and he, surprisingly enough, lived up to those numbers. So we have this:

150 .271  .301  .364
121 .314  .366  .416
 81 .307  .347  .432

Solid play, solid defense. Except… he was a 34-year-old second baseman who had missed two months of the last season with leg problems, not generally a good sign for middle infielders. But, if I remember, the cries of fragility or ineptitude weren’t nearly as shrill as they are for Spivey. And part of it’s justified; the guy’s played 120 games total over the last two years. But keep in mind that his major injury last year was both flukish and unlikely to linger, and as far as middle infielders go he’s a spring chicken by comparison.

The point of all this? Well, first off–what the heck were they thinking in 2004? My goodness. But, more importantly, the Cardinals haven’t had a non-question-mark at second base since the end of 2001… and even then the second sacker in question regressed significantly the next year. As far as gambles go, Spivey may be slightly more risky than Grudzielanek was, but the stakes aren’t as raised as people think.