The tandem starter system is dead, long live the tandem starter system. Eddie Degerman moves up to Palm Beach. Here are his numbers, since his last year at Rice:

       G     IP  HR  BB    K    K/9  BB/9  K:BB  HR/9   ERA   FIP
NCAA  20  130.2   3  58  172  11.85  3.99  2.96  0.21  2.00  2.19
  SS   9   42.1   1  20   53  11.27  4.25  2.65  0.21  2.76  2.42
LowA  12   47.2   4  19   71  13.41  3.59  3.73  0.75  2.45  2.51

He’s a deception guy, featuring a low-90s fastball and a good curveball disguised by a bizarre delivery, but the improving level of competition has yet to expose him. I was hoping he’d touch AA by the end of the season, because there’s only so much you can take from pitchers’ numbers in the Florida State League, but he was obviously too much for the Midwest League and it’s good to see him move on.

Blake King, also leaving Quad Cities, was the first of the two to reach full-season ball; King broke camp with the club, while Degerman stayed behind to work through a Spring Training control meltdown. Little did the Cardinals know that Control Meltdownosis is a transmittable disease:

       G    IP  HR  BB   K    K/9  BB/9  K:BB  HR/9   ERA   FIP
   R  13  62.2   3  29  74  10.63  4.16  2.55  0.43  3.02  2.85
LowA  19  57.0   3  44  62   9.79  6.95  1.41  0.47  5.21  4.02

He’s pitching this whole season as a 20-year-old, so he’ll have plenty of time to work things out as a Batavia Short Season Muckdog, but man is that some kind of control problem, especially when you take into account the 18 wild pitches he threw.

Two months have passed since the minor leaguers began ruining our prospect lists by actually playing games. The Reid Goreckis of the world have either cooled down or continued to excel, and as a result it’s beginning to make sense to discuss promotions and reorder players on our mental lists of names to remember.

With that in mind, I’ll spend the next four days going over the biggest stories at each stop on the Cardinals’ full season chain. We begin our look at the minor league season that is–just before the draft comes in and throws everything off kilter–at the bottom, with the Swing of the Quad Cities… of the Midwest League. (As always, if you do not care about the low minors–and I don’t blame you–there’s a perfectly good… er, backup catcher post underneath this one.)

Trending up:

Eddie Degerman - SP

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     AGE   LG   G    IP    H  BB   K  HR    K/9  BB/9  K:BB   ERA
2006  22   SS   9  42.1   37  20  53   3  11.85  3.99  2.65  2.76
2007  23    A   6  30.1   13  10  43   3  12.76  2.97  4.30  2.08

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Eddie Degerman had a great pro debut, but during Spring Training this year his control apparently vanished entirely. He stayed in Florida through April, rebuilding his strange delivery, and arrived in full season ball with better control and nastier stuff, it would appear. I’m not sure how it happened, but I’m glad it did. Degerman doesn’t get any plaudits for his natural talent, and scouts never seem to be at ease with guys who rely on weird deliveries, but he’s dominated from college up to full season A ball while keeping his strikeout rate steady and gradually lowering his walk rate. If the superior quality of play is going to get to him eventually, it hasn’t yet.

Elvis Hernandez - SP

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     AGE   LG   G    IP    H  BB   K  HR    K/9  BB/9  K:BB   ERA
2006  21    R  13  67.1   55  27  54   5   7.22  3.61  2.00  3.48
 APR  22    A   6  22.0   16   3  19   1   7.77  1.23  6.33  2.05
 MAY        A   6  19.2   24  10  24   0  10.98  4.58  2.40  3.66

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P.J. Walters - SP

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     AGE   LG   G    IP    H  BB   K  HR    K/9  BB/9  K:BB   ERA
2006  22   SS  26  30.1   29   9  31   1   9.19  2.67  3.44  3.56
 APR  23    A   6  23.2   25   4  21   1   7.98  1.52  5.25  4.56
 MAY        A   7  30.2   21   5  32   0   9.39  1.46  6.40  0.88

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Tyler Herron - SP

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     AGE   LG   G    IP    H  BB   K  HR    K/9  BB/9  K:BB   ERA
2006  20    R  13  69.2   69  22  54   6   6.98  2.84  2.45  4.13
 APR  21    A   6  20.1   20   6  18   1   7.97  2.66  3.00  4.79
 MAY        A   7  26.0   20   5  24   0   8.30  1.46  4.80  2.67

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The tandem starter system has me very conflicted with regards to predicting future success for the pitchers in it. I have no qualms with it as a system for developing pitchers–what would I know about that?–but in terms of using the statistics to forecast things, I’m a little wary. In general, I’m very concerned about touting any pitchers in the low minors who are not considered prospects by those who watch them on a regular basis. But when they only go four or five innings at a time–especially for a pitcher like P.J. Walters, used to pitching full-length starts in college–it throws these statistics into still more doubt.

That said, Walters’s success is undeniable, and since he was used as a reliever in rookie ball last year nobody’s stock has shot relatively higher than his; it’s like multiplying by zero and getting five anyway. I’d like to see him at a higher level, but since the next rung up is the pitcher-friendly Florida State League it might not be until AA that we get an accurate picture of his abilities.

As for Elvis Hernandez, I don’t know enough about the guy to make a decision either way; he came out of the Cardinals’ Dominican program, having pitched in the summer league there in 2005, and put up solid but unspectacular numbers in Johnson City last year. This year should vault him into the back of the team prospect lists, provided he keeps his K:BB ratio around three.

Tyler Herron is the only one we can really judge, since we have a frame of reference for him. A first rounder out of high school in 2005, he got knocked around in his rookie season and, in 2006, did better but certainly wasn’t wowing anybody. Has he turned a corner? With his June debut (4.2 innings pitched, 8 K) he’s striking out a batter an inning; he continues to show very good control; and his home run problem has yet to rear its ugly head. Best of all, he’s even young for his age–his actual “baseball age” would be just 20 right now, since he was born in August.

Brandon Buckman - 1B

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     AGE  LG   G   AB   H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO   AVG  OBP  SLG  K%
2006  22   R  62  230  69  17   0   8  24  31  .300 .367 .478  13
 APR  23   A  24   93  26   7   0   5   5  15  .280 .324 .516  16
 MAY       A  27  108  42   9   1   6   6  16  .389 .426 .657  15

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Several strikes against Buckman: he’s kind of old; he doesn’t ever walk; he was a nineteenth round draft choice; he’s stuck at first base and he hasn’t even left the low minors yet. The case for Buckman: he is hitting .336 with a slugging percentage just under .600; he is a gigantic human being. Will he keep doing that? No–well, probably the second thing, but not the first one.

But if he keeps hitting he could turn into trade bait in the mold of Ryan Shealy, a not-quite-young sleeper prospect who just never stops hitting as he moves up the ladder. Heck–Shealy didn’t make his pro debut until 23.

(Note: this time last month Whiteyball did a long entry about Buckman, which is worth a read if you want to know more about the guy than his stats.)

Old and busted:

Blake King - SP

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     AGE   LG   G    IP    H  BB   K  HR    K/9  BB/9  K:BB   ERA
2006  19    R  13  62.2   37  39  74   3  10.63  4.16  1.89  3.02
 APR  20    A   6  18.2   17  13  21   0  10.12  6.27  1.62  4.82
 MAY        A   7  20.1   15  17  18   1   7.97  7.52  1.06  5.31

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Yikes. After getting through rookie ball without any real issues, Mickey Mantle’s great-nephew pitched on a razor thin margin througout April. He then spent May jumping up and down on the margin until it disappeared entirely. Seventeen walks in twenty innings? Truly impressive.

It’s early yet, and he’s still the proud owner of a mid-90s fastball, so I imagine it’ll be a while before control problems do him in. But something would appear to be wrong.

Donovan Solano - IF

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     AGE  LG   G   AB   H  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO   AVG  OBP  SLG  K%
2006  18  SS  44  149  42   2   0   0  12  17  .282 .341 .295  11
 APR  19   A       78  18   2   0   0   9   8  .231 .315 .256  10
 MAY       A       99  21   2   0   0   1   9  .212 .233 .232   9

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There comes a time when precocity becomes irrelevant–or worse still, irritating–and just being young for what it is you’re doing isn’t enough. A six year-old who can play the piano pretty well is the center of attention; a sixteen year-old who can play the piano pretty well is playing a “jazzy” arrangement of Green Day hits on the keytar for the school pep band. Two and a half years ago, now, since-departed The Cardinal Nation wrote the following about Donovan Solano, who as far as I can tell had never been mentioned around the Cardinals internet community before:

Another shortstop to keep and eye on in 2005 is 16-year-old Donovan Solano who was recently signed out of Colombia by the Cardinals. Those who have seen him play say that they believe he is better than Edgar Renteria was at the same age. Solano has also been invited to Jupiter for Spring Training. If he doesn’t make the Johnson City club, the Cardinals are expected to send him to the Dominican Summer League.

This was Pre-Rasmus, and to compulsive prospect watchers with nobody but Anthony Reyes to watch this was kind of a big deal; Edgar Renteria had left St. Louis only a few months earlier. Naturally, when Solano debuted in Johnson City at 17–a true seventeen year-old–everyone watched carefully to see what this mystery man would do.

And the answer was: not a lot. In 2006 he did similarly little, managing a truly amazing, possibly unlucky isolated power: 13.

Point zero one three.

As a rule of thumb, when your isolated power is also an ACT score that will not get you admitted to a state university on a football scholarship, you’re in trouble. So far he’s more than doubled it, and the University of Missouri has offered his isolated power the Walter Williams journalism scholarship, but those four doubles–an embarrassment of extra base riches–have come as his batting average has collapsed completely.

Are there any positives left? Well, he’s still kind of young, and he doesn’t strike out a lot, so his BABIP should pick back up. But the real problem here is that he never did improve like we assumed he would. He may have been the spitting image of 16-year-old Edgar Renteria back in 2004, but that doesn’t matter when, here in 2007, he still is. We were expecting some filling out by now, any increase in batting ability, but not everybody who starts at something young gets better at it. Sixty percent of his balls in play are still weak ground balls, and that’s not even the worst part–fewer than ten percent are line drives.

Maybe he’ll turn things around, but at this point he doesn’t even have being extremely young for his league to work in his favor.

Tomorrow: high A, and slightly more predictable players. Slightly. After all that guesswork, I’m waiting patiently for the high minors.

I think most bloggers retire–inasmuch as one can retire from having an opinion and an ego–because they feel like they keep saying the same things over and over, and if they keep doing it people will eventually stop humoring them and just rip into them, once and for all.

To avoid that feeling, I won’t be talking about the big club today. I thought I’d talk a little about low-A Quad Cities’s pitchers, which are having… a weird time, to say the least. BTF prospect hound Mike Emeigh mentioned them recently in his NL Central Prospect Report.

The Cardinals use a tandem starter arrangement (which used to be a lot more popular than it is now) at Quad Cities. I’m not sure that it makes all that much of a difference in pitcher development, but it sure seems as though most of the Swing pitchers have been affected negatively by it, to be sure.

Blake King’s development, in particular, has surprised me. I wasn’t expecting a brilliant start, or a breakout, but when a guy flashes mid-90s heat and makes quick work of short season ball it’s fair to expect his command to not disappear entirely. So I thought to myself: here is some research even I can do. Has the Cardinals’s bizarre tandem starter approach hurt the pitchers? Here’s the combined line for all of the Swing pitchers who’ve started more than two games:

 IP    H  ER  HR  BB    K   ERA  K/9  BB/9  HR/9  K:BB
198  183  75  11  63  178  3.41  8.1  2.86  0.50  2.82

Immediate thought: if this is how they pitch when their development is being hurt, I’d love to see them pitch when they’re being brought along nicely. Second thought: I feel like we may have been a little over-excited about Trey Hearne.

But back to the main question: are they being hurt by tandom starting? For those who’ve never heard of it–I had no idea what the Cardinals were doing with the Swing until this article–it boils down to the Cardinals using two guys being groomed as starters for 3-4 innings in a game, whereupon the closer (Kenny Maiques, a guy the Cardinals drafted a while back while he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery) finishes the game off.

There’s one hypothesis we can’t test right now: their development could be hurt by the fact that they aren’t being asked to pitch five-seven innings on a regular basis. But another is easily testable: even though they’re told they’re still starters, isn’t the mentality going to be different coming in in the middle of a game?

The splits look like this:

           IP    H  ER  HR  BB   K   ERA  K/9  BB/9  HR/9  K:BB
RELIEF   71.0   59  31   2  34  72  3.93  9.1  4.31  0.25  2.12
STARTS  112.0  103  37   6  25  89  2.97  7.2  2.01  0.48  3.56

(The numbers don’t add up because Matthew “This is a bad name for a pitcher” Schellinger’s stats page wasn’t loading for me.) Sure enough, their ERA is a run worse in fake starts than it is in real starts. But that’s not the most interesting part.

It seems like they pitch like starters when they open the game on the mound, but–despite their coaches’ best intentions–rear back and throw fireballs in their relief appearances. The starter profile resembles Chris Carpenter, almost–outstanding K:BB ratio combined with a somewhat higher home run rate. When in relief, though, they aim to strike people out and avoid contact of any kind, in grand Mitch Williams fashion.

The pitcher most hurt by this dichotomy is Blake King, who probably inspired Emeigh’s comment in the first place. Take a look:

            IP   H  ER  HR  BB   K   ERA  K/9  BB/9  HR/9  K:BB
KING      10.0   8   9   0  10   9  8.10  8.1  9.00  0.00  0.90
R. FLUSH  17.1  12   5   0   8  18  2.60  9.4  4.15  0.00  2.25

This post is mostly guesswork as is, so I might as well go all the way to theorizing: Blake King is a 20-year-old with a hard fastball and sketchy command, but he’s already able to blow it by hitters at this level. The extra muscle behind his pitches doesn’t do him any good at all. The other pitchers, with more borderline stuff, lose some control but manage to keep the ball in the park better than they do when they have to conserve energy–a typical relief conversion story.

What does this mean? And, more importantly, can we trust the statistics they accrue in this arrangement? We’ll have to wait and see how far apart these two lines remain.