Great game all around, and a reminder of how quickly a sloppy, mediocre game can turn into a great one for a particular team. Wainwright had no stuff–his fastball was in the 87-90 range for most of the game, and he was hanging curveballs on a fairly regular basis–but he managed to stave off the relief cries for another few games, and tomorrow I won’t remember how terrible his fastball looked at times. I’ll remember that he kept the team in the game, and for once the hitters took advantage of that opportunity.

Isringhausen’s stuff, on the other hand, looked outstanding. I’m sold on his return, at least for this year, and I think the exact moment that did it was when he threw two consecutive Curveballs of Death in the eighth inning, something I rarely remember him doing even at his peak. Not only that, but his fastball looks a lot stronger than it did throughout last year. In hindsight, I have no idea how Izzy was even as effective as he was last year, seeing as he had no control and one pitch–a fringy fastball–for the vast majority of it.

As if getting off the schneid weren’t enough, Rick Ankiel (official mancrush of Get Up, Baby!?) continues to heat up at AAA. Having missed all of last season–his second as a hitter–his three hit, one homer night brings him up to .283/.327/.586 on the year. He’s 14-34 in his last ten games, with four walks and seven strikeouts. Is there any reason at all to think he couldn’t earn those at-bats he needs with the big club, at this point?

I guess it’s good to win these games–the ones where Gary Bennett and Aaron Miles go 7-10, and two relievers with a combined ERA over 20 preserve a slim deficit through regulation–but I can’t say it taught us a lot about the team, except that it sucks to root for a team where Preston Wilson, Gary Bennett, Aaron Miles, and So Taguchi can bat consecutively without bringing up the worst hitter on the bench.

Keisler was as good as could possibly be expected, but it’s pretty clear to me why he hasn’t stuck as a LOOGY despite having a live strikeout rate: he’s got no breaking ball. His curveball wasn’t just a curveball that hung; like there are cut fastballs, and knuckle-curves, he throws a Hanging Curveball. His fastball and changeup were very nice for a free lefty, with more movement and giddy-up than, say, Mark Mulder has ever shown as a Cardinal, and in general he makes a really good spot starter to have stowed away in Memphis. But he doesn’t have a slider or a curveball with which to immolate southpaws, so as a reliever he’s just a fringe arm with a platoon problem.

What I’m saying is: he needs to hook up with the Nationals.

Speaking of people who showed a fastball and nothing else, Tuesday was my first time paying close attention to New + Improved Jason Isringhausen. He looked disturbingly similar to the 2006 model–his curveball hit the dirt, and his cutter manifested itself as a high, slow fastball that typically, and thankfully, sailed out of the zone and away. The only difference–and it’s a big difference–is that he can and did throw his regular fastball, now hovering in the low 90s, for strikes. It’s a nice fastball, still, but I’m holding out hope that he regains his command of the Curveball of the Gods. I’m a little more ambivalent about the cutter.

Finally, to Exciting Prospect News: Blake King made his first start of the year in the Quad Cities; five scoreless innings, which is a little less exciting than his two inning/four walk/five strikeout relief debut, but more encouraging. Now, I like Blake King, but I reserve a prospect crush for players like Jose “Not Top-Twenty Alum” Martinez, who is now hitting .381/.381/.619 following a cameo role in Palm Beach’s 14-1 beatdown of St. Lucie. I realize that it’s been five games, but it’s good to see him get off to a hot start after stumbling out of the gate in 2006. And to complete the GUB minor league favorites trifecta, Rick Ankiel went 3-4 with a homer and a double for Memphis. Meanwhile, Skip Schumaker and So Taguchi are in the major leagues.

Speaking of the minors: I have an idea for a newer, more useful, less table-y version of Coming Attractions. So we’ll see how that works out.

Resolved: getting MLB.TV in Spring Training is a bad idea. I only went in for a month’s worth, but $14.95 to see the prospects play two or three times in a tiny screen on my dorm’s crappy internet connection wasn’t quite as valuable as I anticipated. That said, I missed Sunday’s TV warm-up, so it gave me the chance to watch Kip Wells for the first time. My notes:

So, Jay Randolph. I wasn’t around for his first stint with the Cardinals, so it was all new to me. On the one hand, I liked his play-by-play work. He wasn’t trying nearly as hard as Wayne Hagin had, and he knew when to keep quiet. He works well with Ricky Horton. His PBP has aged well.

Everything else has not. His stand-ups were awkward and he kept misreading the stats. But I’m willing to trade the awkwardness for some good play-by-play work. And I can’t fault him for messing up the occasional name, seeing as I keep calling him Jay Humphries.

Izzy looked better than he did last year, but it’s obvious that there are some lingering effects. The good news: his cutter cuts. It was darting in and out, up and down, and generally moving instead of just being a slow fastball.

The bad news: he’s still not delivering the ball like he used to. At least, I don’t think he is. Horton pretended like everything was back to normal, but his follow-through still looks a little gimpy. It may have looked like that this whole time, and I just wasn’t paying attention, but that wouldn’t explain his continued propensity for throwing every fourth fastball into the dirt.

That said, even marginally improved is a good thing, and as long as he’s good enough to keep Adam Wainwright in the rotation I’m fine with the occasional frustrating blown save. Except if it comes in a Wainwright start; that would just blow my mind.

As for Kip Wells, he reminds me of post-Duncan Jeff Weaver sans sidearm delivery. His fastball hits 90 with a little move on it, and he has a few variations on the same slurvy breaking pitch. If he stays healthy, $4 million is going to be a huge bargain.

Dennis Dove: wow, that’s a fastball. I wasn’t very high on him based on his stats and his reputation as a one-pitch pitcher, but the last pitch he threw Sunday was a brilliant curveball. If you have a high-90s fastball, excellent command, and even the potential for a good breaking ball, you could be going places in a hurry.

Scott, Chris, I’m sorry for ever having doubted you. Ever. Chris, those times in A-ball when you were hitting .230–water under the bridge. And Scott, that first time I heard Limp Bizkit blare through the loudspeakers when you came up to bat? We’re cool.

September 1-14
        AB  H  XBH  RBI   BA   OBP   SLG
Rolen   36  6    1    1 .167  .286  .194
Duncan  38  6    3    5 .158  .256  .289

These things really do turn on a pin when injury’s not involved–and let’s hope to god it isn’t. With this recent offensive outburst Rolen’s year-to-date numbers are back to .305/.378/.538, a little above his career mark. Not bad for a guy over 30 coming off a severe injury that had him hitting like Alex “They’re Both the Same Player, So Just Pick Whichever One You Remember Failing More for This Simile” Gonzalez. Really, Rolen and Duncan are about the only position players about which we have been pleasantly surprised.

It was great to see Matt Morris pitch again, and I don’t mean that in the ha-ha-they-raked way. His fastball is still gone, but the curveball was great in the way it has been since he lost velocity–big and really slow. A few of them caught the high-60s, which has heretofore been exclusively Mark Mulder’s territory. He reminds me of the Jeff Weaver we’ve seen in St. Louis, sans absurd handedness splits; he would throw some good pitches, and then just have nothing to follow them up with. Meanwhile, Chris Carpenter had no bad pitches; just as Matt Morris used to follow up his out-pitch with a mid-90s burner, Carpenter had no problem sending fastballs darting in and out of the strike zone on the rare occasions he got behind a batter.

But none of this is news; the news, which is only surprising inasmuch as they actually announced it, is that Izzy is done for the year. At least.

The headline: Cards’ Isringhausen done for season with hip injury

The excerpts:

“I don’t expect that Izzy’s going to pitch anymore,” Duncan said after a 6-1 victory over San Francisco. “I think it’s just determining what to do.”

[…]

He said he planned to meet with Duncan, general manager Walt Jocketty and manager Tony La Russa to decide the next step.

Seems suspicious, at first glance, unless Jocketty has some advice about the time his landing leg kept giving out on him mid-curveball. Rick Wilton of The Hardball Times says it’s the kaputs for Izzy. Will Carroll is more optimistic:

There are suggestions that Jason Isringhausen is not only done for the season, but that he’s just plain done. While Isringhausen does have some significant problems in his hip, I’m not sure that they rise to the level of ending his year. […] While the Cardinals would not confirm reports that Isringhausen is dealing with an acetabular labrum tear, good sources categorically denied reports that the joint was unstable. I think Isringhausen will pitch again this season, though it’s up to him and his pain tolerance as to whether that will be a positive.

Well, he’s not going to pitch again this year, but the idea that he could meshes with what Matthew Leach said in his piece on the subject:

“Yesterday wasn’t a very positive step for him,” Paletta said. “He said he felt OK throwing, but he still felt like his hip was collapsing on a lot of the throws.

So, will he ever pitch again? I hope so. I hope that, if he doesn’t come out in Spring Training and throw a baseball through a brick wall to prove a point, he at least gets a shot in the Dave Veres memorial ex-closer role for a year–after all, the Cardinals are on the hook for it, and he’s been great, this finally explainable, maddeningly frustrating year aside. But it’s anyone’s guess. And everybody’s guessing.

And, in grand baseball fashion, the truth comes out only after he sucks: the hip’s been bad all year. That makes sense; when Izzy’s been bad his mechanics have looked normal, it’s just been exceedingly obvious that he can’t aim. With his fastball in the 89-93 range since mid-2003, he can’t afford to miss in the zone, so he misses out of it. Over and over.

It’s good news, on one level–the Cardinals are still on the hook for 2007, and a closer controversy between Braden Looper and Adam Wainwright can not possibly end well. If Wainwright were to win the closer job now, or in 2007, the Cardinals would find it suddenly very difficult to move him back to the rotation. And unless you’re putting up Jonathan Papelbon numbers, it’s a bad idea to commit to a young pitcher with a dynamite curveball sticking in the bullpen for the duration.

As things stand now, lboros has the right idea; keep Isringhausen as the nominal closer, but admit that he’s not 100% and foist the highest leverage situations on a platoon of the middle relievers who can throw strikes consistently. (As well as Tyler Johnson, I guess.) Of course, neither La Russa nor Izzy is going to admit he’s hurt, so there’ll be some unnecessary waves made about the bullpen usage for the next several months.

Meanwhile, Your Palm Beach Cardinals got swept in two games in their quest to defend the FSL championship. Journeyman infielder Luis Cotto, who began his year in May in the Midwest League after one-time second rounder Cal Hayes retired from the Quad Cities Swing, had the series of his life: 5-9 with two doubles in the losing effort. 24 years old, he hit .239/.336/.299 between the two A-ball clubs; nice to come out of nowhere and hit .556 in the playoffs.

In Quad Cities, meanwhile, Trey Hearne pitched well but lost a 2-0 pitcher’s duel in game one of the Midwest League playoffs. He allowed one unearned run over five innings, striking out eight. But an error by marginal prospect 2B/SS Jose Martinez was followed by an RBI double, and that was that. 2006 pick Jon “Chief Justice” Jay went 2-4 in the loss.

I disliked Jay when the Cardinals picked him in the second round; a college outfielder, he was profiled as a fourth outfielder prospect from the start of his career because of his lack of power. I still dislike signing a perceived low-upside pick so early in the draft, but he did everything right in his debut; he hit .342/.416/.462, starting off strong and continuing to rake through the rest of the season. His swing–after his bizarre timing mechanism–and his build reminded me of Ray Lankford, but there’s no guarantee he’ll develop power and he seems to lack the speed Lankford began his career with. Nevertheless, one can’t fault him for things he didn’t have control over, like playing at a low level; he’s two years younger than Nick Stavinoha was when he dominated the Midwest League last year, after all.

Waaaaaah.

So, yes, Isringhausen’s walk rate has inexplicably tripled from what it was in his best years. Somehow I doubt this will continue, but this is why I hate the closer’s role. If this happened to a starter–well, he’s only pitched 25 innings. In 25 innings Marquis can look like Cy Young, 20s slugger Cy Williams, and Cy Chotic. Sometimes all at once. So you maybe skip a start, and then either all is right with the world or he gets demoted to the bullpen until somebody else can’t figure it out. If your reliever is sucking it up, he gets thrown in the doghouse and throws some long relief until he can prove he belongs in high leverage situations again.

But the closer role–heaven forbid. Because when you demote a closer–a closer other than the interim/cannon fodder types like Dave Weathers and (seriously, he was a closer earlier this year) Dan Miceli–it’s a big deal. There’s a torch-passing ceremony, and you have to deal with ex-closer’s bruised ego, and after the first blown save the new closer’s brain is biopsied to see if his neurons produce enough Mental Toughness.

Isringhausen, a high priced reliever with a history of great success, would be best served at this point by being put into a few low-leverage situations until his command comes back, whereupon you would resume using him where it makes sense to use your best reliever. But the thing is, because he is a high priced reliever with a history of great success, you can’t do that. You either continue to use him where his position dictates he be used and you deal with the consequences, or you demote him and deal with the consequences.

Fun stuff; if I had told you three days ago that the team would be hitting really well and you would still be really mad, would you have believed me? If there’s one positive to take from this, it’s that the Reds still have aces by the names of Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, and that is a recipe for utter disaster.

THERE IS AN AWKWARD SILENCE.

Look, I’ve been as big an Isringhausen backer as can be this year, but when he came in with one out and the bases loaded… well, I was less than confident. And then he threw several fastballs through the bat of David Wright, Mets God; welcome back to Ace Relieverland, Izzy. Meanwhile, even as several of us in the VEB game thread were trying to trade him to the Diamondbacks for Carlos Quentin (or, in my case, Chris Young) Mark Mulder went out and shut down a scary Mets lineup. Today’s action has left Mulder’s strikeout rate… exactly where it was last year–4.87 per nine–which isn’t good news to those of us who were hoping he’d bring it back up to where it was when he was a Cy Young candidate. His walk rate is down, a little, and he continues to accumulate groundouts in bunches, but so long as his strikeout rate is under six per nine he’s going to leave us just short of being able to watch two aces in a row come playoff time. Not that I won’t, you know, take 8 1/3 scoreless innings a start for the rest of the season.

But if it’s strikeouts you’re after, it appears that Anthony Reyes will be getting the start on Saturday after all. Seeing as the guy’s K:BB ratio is 8, it’s probably time, even as Sidney Ponson makes progress. What to make of the high home run rate in Memphis? Well, there are two possible options:

1. La Russa and Duncan were right, and he needs to stay down in the zone
2. La Russa and Duncan have messed with success, and he’s hanging two-seamers up in the zone.

Like everything else it’s probably a mixture of both, but the guy’s propensity for leaving balls up in the zone has always been a worry for the Cardinals. Way back last June lboros interviewed AAA pitching coach Dyar Miller, and the thing they were working on was–surprise–keeping him down in the strike zone. So it’s nothing new, the Spring Training snit over learning a sinker aside.

Is His Albertness ever going to get a day off? The guy is obviously hurting, and however high his competitive desire is it’s La Russa’s job to make sure he has the occasional afternoon off to calibrate his Death Stare. With another hitless night, his OPS is now all the way down to 1.242. All the way down. It would seem that tomorrow, with Lima Time in full effect on the day game after a night game, would be an ideal time to play somebody out of position at first base like TLR loves to do (Edmonds maybe?), but with Jason Marquis on the mound for the Cardinals he may consider it necessary to try to build up a huge lead as soon as possible. Is it a little surreal to anybody else that a guy whose ERA over the past two years is best expressed using scientific notation once shut out one of the best Cardinals lineups ever? In the playoffs? Someday I’m going to look back on these years with my hypothetical grandchildren, and one of them is going to ask how things like this happen.

And on that day he is going to become a Jose Lima Existentialist.

Even my nerves are contrarian, I think; when Izzy came in in the ninth, and even after he gave up a lead-off double, I was even less nervous than I normally am with Isringhausen on the mound. Normally–like everybody who watches Baron von Isringhausen (The Redbird Baron?) on a regular basis–I’ve got a weird mix of fear and confidence in Isringhausen as he performs the pitching equivalent of a barrel-roll through an open barn and usually comes out on top, bases loaded or not. But now, when commenters on some blogs have anointed him “THE WORST CLOSER IN BASEBALL!!!!” (note: Dan Miceli and Dave Weathers are closers in baseball), I was in a state of utter calm. I don’t get it, either, but Izzy got it done, punctuating his outing by inducing a horrific swing from MVP candidate Jason Bay. He was throwing in the mid-90s for strikes, and his curveball–it’s always been his best pitch, I have no idea why he doesn’t throw it more–was ridiculous, so he didn’t need his erratic cutter at all. This is just one game, just like those other games were a small sample size, but the worst closer in baseball? Isringhausen could shelve his cutter entirely and put up a 3.50 ERA.

But really, Jason Marquis is the one to talk about after this start. Ever since that shutout at RFK Stadium, he’s refashioned himself as a control pitcher; that he walked only one man in his eight innings of work today is very reassuring. His BB/9 after three starts is 1.86, which is more than a full walk better than he managed in his first two years as a Cardinal, and his strikeout rate has perked up after a dismal 2005. He’s not going to keep that sub-3.00 ERA, but if the newfound control holds–and it has since that game in DC last year–he’s a solid number three. Monday night he only tended to get in trouble after he allowed a hard hit ball on his two-seamer. It didn’t happen often, but when it did he seemed determined to try to finesse the next guy with his perpetually shaky curveball. It’s not often you see a starting pitcher succeed with one pitch, but it seems like his sinker is the power pitcher’s equivalent of a knuckleball.

Meanwhile, in the minor leagues–Coming Attractions is all done except for the player page template, so I’ll be updating the main page of it daily pretty soon–John Gall continued his scorched-earth campaign at AAA, going 2-4 with a double. In the young season, he’s hitting .377/.414/.510, with all of three strikeouts in 50 at-bats. With Schumaker and Taguchi both slumping, I’ve gotta ask: what does this guy have to do to get a full-fledged shot in the big leagues, get traded for Ray King? He’s blocked at first base, he moves to the outfield; he’s considered immobile in the outfield, he slims way down over the offseason; he’s sent down in favor of carrying So Taguchi and So Taguchi USA on the roster, he hammers the Pacific Coast League. If that weren’t enough, he’s nicknamed “Stones!” How do you not call this guy up? In other AAA news, Larry Bigbie went 0-3 with three strikeouts, which is understandable seeing as he hasn’t done much hitting lately but certainly proves a happy coincidence while I’m flying the FREE JOHN GALL banner.

Either you’re panicking already or you won’t, so I’m not going to win any converts. But seriously, it’s a few bad outings. Isringhausen’s been one of the best closers in baseball for four years running, and unless you can tell me what caused him to suddenly lose that ability over one healthy off-season as a 33-year-old–after looking fine over the first two outings–I’m not worried at all. Let’s save the boos for Aaron Miles, Cardinals fans, he’s the one that’s actually a sinkhole.